A History of the American-Japanese Campaign of 1931-1933

[stevep]

Jan 29, 2021 16:44:29 GMT gillan1220 said:

This book has been featured by The Diplomat on March 23, 2017:
What a 1925 Novel Can Teach Us About a Possible US-China War

  Interesting thanks.  Possibly the key point in the article would be how does the war end.  Unless the US suffers heavy losses and decides not to do what it did in 1941-45 and rebuild to come back, or there's a sudden political collapse in China [which seems unlikely] it could be a very long and costly war.  Short of a nuclear exchange China can't really force a US surrender [and even then it would be unlikely] nor the US a Chinese surrender.  Considering what many powers and populations in WWII were prepared to put up with to avoid defeat and the idea of an occupation of China is not something I could see the US really considering.

  Also the other factor in a US-China war would be the impact on the rest of the world.  Assuming a US blockade and also possible attacks by both side on shipping in the region - which could include a large area of the Pacific as well as SE Asia - there's going to be a huge impact on world trade.  China probably won't be exporting much, as well as quite possibly impacts on Taiwan, Japan and S Korea exports which would make a huge hole in world trade, especially probably in electronic items.  China will also suffer from a lot of disruption of imports depending on what they can do in terms of getting imports overland.  [That could be a big driver for their New Spice Road programme].  The US [and the rest of the world] will find out how dependent or not their on Chinese/E Asian goods but may after the initial shock fave somewhat better as they are still likely to have more access to the rest of the world.  All in all it would be a hell of a mess.

  Anyway distracting from the subject of the TL so apologies lordroel, but a very interesting issue.

[gillan1220]

Jan 30, 2021 12:38:23 GMT stevep said:

Jan 29, 2021 16:44:29 GMT gillan1220 said:

This book has been featured by The Diplomat on March 23, 2017:
What a 1925 Novel Can Teach Us About a Possible US-China War

  Interesting thanks.  Possibly the key point in the article would be how does the war end.  Unless the US suffers heavy losses and decides not to do what it did in 1941-45 and rebuild to come back, or there's a sudden political collapse in China [which seems unlikely] it could be a very long and costly war.  Short of a nuclear exchange China can't really force a US surrender [and even then it would be unlikely] nor the US a Chinese surrender.  Considering what many powers and populations in WWII were prepared to put up with to avoid defeat and the idea of an occupation of China is not something I could see the US really considering.

  Also the other factor in a US-China war would be the impact on the rest of the world.  Assuming a US blockade and also possible attacks by both side on shipping in the region - which could include a large area of the Pacific as well as SE Asia - there's going to be a huge impact on world trade.  China probably won't be exporting much, as well as quite possibly impacts on Taiwan, Japan and S Korea exports which would make a huge hole in world trade, especially probably in electronic items.  China will also suffer from a lot of disruption of imports depending on what they can do in terms of getting imports overland.  [That could be a big driver for their New Spice Road programme].  The US [and the rest of the world] will find out how dependent or not their on Chinese/E Asian goods but may after the initial shock fave somewhat better as they are still likely to have more access to the rest of the world.  All in all it would be a hell of a mess.

  Anyway distracting from the subject of the TL so apologies lordroel , but a very interesting issue.

Well the hypothetical 1931 and the present day 2017 have their similarities. The book assumes that while neither side can invade each other, neither side cannot also project farther. The USN in the 1930s was not the leviathan it became after 1945. The Asia-Pacific was basically the IJN's lake from the 1900 to 1945.

Now in present day, China has invested in area-denial weapons that could target USN carrier groups and U.S. bases in the Pacific. Hence why the novel East Wind: War in the Pacific takes basis on this 1925 model showing what problems the U.S. faces in the Indo-Pacific.

History has a terrible way of repeating itself.

[lordroel]

Jan 30, 2021 12:38:23 GMT stevep said:

  Anyway distracting from the subject of the TL so apologies lordroel , but a very interesting issue.

No problem stevep, i am happy this thread is a live again wit discussion, it hold a special place in my hart on this forum.