4 August 1914 - Poland of July 1930, Russia of June 1919 and Imperial Japan of 8 February 1905 ISOT

[575]

Turkey – Caucasus etc. February 1915/20/31
The Turk government was pestering the British for releasing the Resadiye Dreadnoughts as the Greeks were heating up on the former USS pre-Dreadnoughts Mississippi and Idaho that had been sold to them and delivered July 1914.
The Turks didn't like the situation as the Greeks might be up to an invasion of Asia Minor or going on Constantinoble.
With BC Goeben and CL Breslau gone the Turks had little if anything to confront the Greeks once they thought themselves proficient with those ships – and the Greeks had a history of ship proficiency.

The Turk Navy consisted of 2 pre-Dreadnoughts (1894), 1 ironclad battery ship, 2 old cruisers, 9 DD/Torpedoboats, several Minelayers and an obsolete gunboat.
Facing this was the Greek Navy - that had defeated the Ottomans 1912 - with the two Mississippi class pre-Dreadnoughts (1908), 2 Armoured Cruisers, 1 CL, 14 DD, 2 SS each with 6 torpedoes 1 internal tube and 4 external ”drop-collars”.

Poland had decided to warn the Turks of possible Greek intentions and this made the Turks secretly mobilize its 1. army in European Turkey and Western Provinces of Asia Minor. The 2. in Syria/Aleppo and 3. in Caucasus had already been mobilized for the operations in Caucasus. 4. Army in Syria and Mesopotamia mobilizing reserves.

The Poles as always was beneficial to the Turks – if they could be edged on getting into conflict with the Soviets these wouldn't have all the force to fight the Poles. So the Turks had gotten a rather thorough update on July 1919 from which they themselves had been able to follow the developments in Russia though the Poles had also briefed them from their intercepts of Soviet radiotraffic.
Learning of the Greek pondering the Poles better understood the reluctance of the Greeks of entering the Great War along the Entente. That had been nudging them rather heavily including taking their Navy from them without caring for the units during 2 years and then letting them have them back.
Now the Greeks had their fully functional ships and having avoided a long sitting it out and eventual offensive to the north. The Greeks would be waiting for their moment to go though they would be facing a not worn down Turkey.

Thinking of other Greek options the Poles came around the Dodecanese Islands of the Aegean Sea close to Turkey which had been ceded by Turkey 1912 to Italy – would the Greeks dare challenge the Italians? With their new worked up ships and aggressive Naval attitude they might just go for that lesser alternative.
However the Italian Navy was large – 3 Dreadnoughts with 3 building to be finished within a year, 11 pre-Dreadnoughts of which 4 only had 2 main guns and 3 with just 4-6” armour, 5 Monitors, 15 AC, 4 CLminelaying, 16 CL, 34 DD and 20 SS. Quite a mouthfull.
But its ships were build for speed not heavy combat being quite thin-skinned even the Dreadnoughts. Only the 3 Dreadnoughts, 8 pre-Dreadnoughts incl. those with only 2 mainguns had a decent AP range.
Those Mississippi class pre-Dreadnoughts were belt armoured as the Italian Dreadnoughts and heavier on trurrets than any Italian ship with the most modern US battleship guns that could fire 2-3 shots a minute with the Italian Dreadnoughts and 6 of the pre-Dr. (incl. the ones of only 2 guns) 1 every minute and of the remaining pre-Df. 2 could fire once every 1½ min. and 8 once every 2-8 minutes.
Not that it made the Greeks able to walk on water but it ensured their survival or at least made it possible.
There had been a stint of a thought of warning the Italians of possible Greek intentions but there was not need of doing such evil to the Greeks – they and the Italians would have to find their own course forward.

With the Navy in bad shape the Turk Army had also suffered as the German Military Mission had been recalled by the Cease Fire during December 1914. A few had decided to stay but the Turks were short of really professional officers.
Thus besides pleading for their Dreadnoughts they also tried getting a British or French Military Mission to supplant the Germans though the Entente preferred to get access through the straits to be able to supply Denikin in Ukraine; which to a degree but not too much appealed to the Turks too. If Deniking would be able to stop the Soviet advance south Turkey would be able to capture Baku.
If they were using the Straits for supplying Denikin the Entente would certainly look at a Greek attack on Asia Minor or Turkisk Thrake with little enthusiasm and probably tell the Greeks to f-off.

With an end to hostilities in the north west, east of the Baltics the Bolshevics got a breather which Stalin used to turn south to harry the various Ukrainian fractions while also forcing Denikin back towards the Kalmyk steppelands.

However Denikins White Army had some newfound vitality probably due to their experience of meeting the Turks north of the Caucasus and with Entente supplies reaching them following the pause of the past half year.
The Turks were driving North and west along the foothills of the Caucasus as they were through the Kura river valley all while fighting the Armenians, Georgians and Azerbajani.
The deal of Denikin and the Turks were keeping their peace or at least not getting a stab in the back.

The Georgians had seen themselves due to the ISOT being robbet of the British force deployed there following the Armistige in 1918 being on their own as were the Armenians and Azerbajdjani who had also lost the British which had moved into these areas 1919 but all resisted the Turk invasion as best they could.

The Azerbajdjani had planned to attack Armenia which had occupied Azerbajdjani Nakhijevan Province but had been caught up in the fight with the Turks due to the Baku oilfields which the Turks were heading for.
The Azerbajanis being themselves Turks didn't want to share the oil of Baku with the Turks of Asia Minor and thus fought them along the Georgians and Armenis.
The enemy of my enemy is my friend – oil for joining the fight. Which stopped the Turk drive east north of and in the Caucasus.

The British had tried the 1919 trek up the mountains towards Baku to secure that asset but snow in the mountains had stopped the expedition at least for the time being.
Going through the Straits by ship had been much more comfortable but at that moment the Turks had generally overrun the Georgian coast so the British weren't able to land there but went up coast.

All fighting in Ukraine and Denikin apart Stalin had also managed to begin forming an Army to renew the fight against the Poles.
This time the Poles felt more confident. They had had their army blooded again and thought themselves able to withstand the Bolshevic's when they came. Their signals service was more experienced than ever and constantly monitoring everything it could in the ether.
The recent war had also convinced the Polish Army of the need for bombers and PZL was working hard to build such.
The new fighters were only few in numbers but more powerfull engines was forthcoming to make the existing scout-bombers able to carry more payload.

The British had supplied some ammunition which was the major concern at the time though the Polish industry did what it could to rebuild stocks and some captured – quite a lot actually as the German 8. Army had left at Königsberg during the evacuation the year prior.
There had been exchanging with the Baltic armed forces so that the German materiel went up there and their former Russian stock to Poland – practical for both parties as the Poles didn't expect the Germans to resupply them. More likely the Baltics.

[stevep]

   I think the UK will end up agreeing the transfer of the ships to Turkey. With the war with Germany over they aren't really needed, similarly with the two ships under construction for Chile.  This is what the Greeks fear as with those ships the Turks will probably have naval dominance and might seek to attack them to get back some of the lands lost in 1912.  Possibly the allies could arrange some agreement to assure the Greeks that they wouldn't be attacked, although not sure how without some guarantee but that would make a conflict markedly less likely.  Possibly you might see the Balkan powers settling their differences with Bulgaria, Greece and Serbia having a defensive pact against a Turkish threat.

  I don't think the Turks would attack Greece in the short term if/when they got the ships, if only because they have more interest in attacking the Caucasus powers and seeking control especially of Baku.

  It could be interesting in the south if Denikin gets enough support from the western powers - and possibly Turkey - to actually cause Stalin some problems but I doubt he could last indefinitely with the other white forces in clear decline.  Unless the allies make a major contribution themselves and/or Poland puts its hat in the ring.  Possibly this might become of interest to those powers if/when Denikin is replaced by the more liberal Pytor Wrangel, which OTL occurred in April 1920, not too far away from the current date.  Another possibility would be if the anarchists in Ukraine were warned of the fact that the Bolsheviks would break their alliance with them again Denikin as soon as the latter was defeated in 1919.

[575]

Nov 21, 2024 17:54:57 GMT stevep said:

   I think the UK will end up agreeing the transfer of the ships to Turkey. With the war with Germany over they aren't really needed, similarly with the two ships under construction for Chile.  This is what the Greeks fear as with those ships the Turks will probably have naval dominance and might seek to attack them to get back some of the lands lost in 1912.  Possibly the allies could arrange some agreement to assure the Greeks that they wouldn't be attacked, although not sure how without some guarantee but that would make a conflict markedly less likely.  Possibly you might see the Balkan powers settling their differences with Bulgaria, Greece and Serbia having a defensive pact against a Turkish threat.

  I don't think the Turks would attack Greece in the short term if/when they got the ships, if only because they have more interest in attacking the Caucasus powers and seeking control especially of Baku.

  It could be interesting in the south if Denikin gets enough support from the western powers - and possibly Turkey - to actually cause Stalin some problems but I doubt he could last indefinitely with the other white forces in clear decline.  Unless the allies make a major contribution themselves and/or Poland puts its hat in the ring.  Possibly this might become of interest to those powers if/when Denikin is replaced by the more liberal Pytor Wrangel, which OTL occurred in April 1920, not too far away from the current date.  Another possibility would be if the anarchists in Ukraine were warned of the fact that the Bolsheviks would break their alliance with them again Denikin as soon as the latter was defeated in 1919.

Thanks, You're on my boat regarding the British - Straits more important than Greek aspirations in Asia Minor. They can have a go at the Dodecanese Is if they would fancy that and their little war don't disturb serious matters such as supplying the White's in Ukraine.

I'm also of the opinion that the Turks have a bigger fish to fry in Caucasus and Central Asia - if they can make it. Damn more important than those revancist Greeks and anyway the Poles WOULD tip them off if the Greeks start talking about AM or Straits - the latter certainly not when guarded by Entente shipping and traversed by such.

The Soviets will do what they can to reestablish Russian borders not least Stalin so it will be a question of time though ITTL there will be a much less unruly home front in Entente nations.

[575]

Japan February 1915/20/31
The IJA was all over the place and mostly angry with the Entente allies for having too few troops at Tsingtao during the siege which had meant that the brunt of the fighting and dying had been done by it.
Those gaijin was telling it what not to do in Manchuria – go to hell though effectively government did manage the IJA to leave Manchuria to itself and the chinese for the time being and do an effort in Amur Province and Sibiria up to the Lake Baikal and some artillery units still in the foothills of the Urals – or so the IJA proclaimed. Probably these were some hundred km's further east along the Transsibirian Railway.

The IJN was still building on the docks and quays of Vladivostok to make it conform to its needs. There had been no booty at Tsingtao though the A-H old cruiser and some Torpedoboats had been salvaged but looked little like being worked up to enter service.

Both IJA and IJN was pretty impressed of the German fortifications and in some odd bout of sense some of the German engineers and artillery officers were willing to stay the next year to show how its done. Certainly it was way better than the old Imperial Russian fortifications at Darien and Port Arthur that had also been inspected and which the Germans had just laughed at. Though agreed to make a survey of the area and draw up a proposal of how they would fortify it.

The IJN certainly wanted to have some Dreadnoughts being in possession of 6 pre-Dreadnoughts with 2 building and another two on the drawing board. 1 Coastal Defence ship, 9 Armoured Cruiser, 21 CL, 76 DD with 3 building. (the IJN won't recieve its first Holland class SS ITTL)

The USA had two Fleets in the neighbourhood the Asian Fleet and the Pacific Fleet.
The Pacific Fleet comprising 4 Dreadnoughts, 5 DD, 2 SS, reserve fleet 2 AC, 5 CL, 6 DD,
The Asian Fleet 1 AC, 2 CL, 5 DD, 4 SS.
Those Dreadnoughts made the US an unwanted opponent at the moment but building to get on par would take years.

Japan had to rebuild losses and look for other Submarines for the IJN. Anyway it was by now rather occupied in Sibiria and with Polish information from radiointercepts they would be in the know should any Entente or other power be making noise about them.

[stevep]

Nov 21, 2024 22:55:49 GMT 575 said:

Japan February 1915/20/31
The IJA was all over the place and mostly angry with the Entente allies for having too few troops at Tsingtao during the siege which had meant that the brunt of the fighting and dying had been done by it.
Those gaijin was telling it what not to do in Manchuria – go to hell though effectively government did manage the IJA to leave Manchuria to itself and the chinese for the time being and do an effort in Amur Province and Sibiria up to the Lake Baikal and some artillery units still in the foothills of the Urals – or so the IJA proclaimed. Probably these were some hundred km's further east along the Transsibirian Railway.

The IJN was still building on the docks and quays of Vladivostok to make it conform to its needs. There had been no booty at Tsingtao though the A-H old cruiser and some Torpedoboats had been salvaged but looked little like being worked up to enter service.

Both IJA and IJN was pretty impressed of the German fortifications and in some odd bout of sense some of the German engineers and artillery officers were willing to stay the next year to show how its done. Certainly it was way better than the old Imperial Russian fortifications at Darien and Port Arthur that had also been inspected and which the Germans had just laughed at. Though agreed to make a survey of the area and draw up a proposal of how they would fortify it.

The IJN certainly wanted to have some Dreadnoughts being in possession of 6 pre-Dreadnoughts with 2 building and another two on the drawing board. 1 Coastal Defence ship, 9 Armoured Cruiser, 21 CL, 76 DD with 3 building. (the IJN won't recieve its first Holland class SS ITTL)

The USA had two Fleets in the neighbourhood the Asian Fleet and the Pacific Fleet.
The Pacific Fleet comprising 4 Dreadnoughts, 5 DD, 2 SS, reserve fleet 2 AC, 5 CL, 6 DD,
The Asian Fleet 1 AC, 2 CL, 5 DD, 4 SS.
Those Dreadnoughts made the US an unwanted opponent at the moment but building to get on par would take years.

Japan had to rebuild losses and look for other Submarines for the IJN. Anyway it was by now rather occupied in Sibiria and with Polish information from radiointercepts they would be in the know should any Entente or other power be making noise about them.

  One other factor here is that Japan being from 1904 their a decade behind in both technology and military experience.  As such the attacks on Tsingtao would be with artillery and other equipment a decade behind the Germans and also lacking the experience they learnt in the war with Russia.

  OTL Japan got their 1st dreadnoughts designed by the UK, with the name ship, the Kongo being built in Britain while the rest of the class would be built in Japan.  Here Japan is technologically behind but they could purchase ships from Britain based on the existing alliance - albeit that the two nations are operating different versions of it which could complicate matters - and also in return for the withdrawal from Manchuria.  This would also fit in with the desire of British yards to find work with the naval race with Germany won.  There will be a desire for some new ships as well to emphasis Japan's great power status.  On the other hand the army will want as much resources as they can get for the expansion of the empire into Siberia and the probable clash with the Bolsheviks.

[575]

Nov 21, 2024 23:51:49 GMT stevep said:

Nov 21, 2024 22:55:49 GMT 575 said:

Japan February 1915/20/31
The IJA was all over the place and mostly angry with the Entente allies for having too few troops at Tsingtao during the siege which had meant that the brunt of the fighting and dying had been done by it.
Those gaijin was telling it what not to do in Manchuria – go to hell though effectively government did manage the IJA to leave Manchuria to itself and the chinese for the time being and do an effort in Amur Province and Sibiria up to the Lake Baikal and some artillery units still in the foothills of the Urals – or so the IJA proclaimed. Probably these were some hundred km's further east along the Transsibirian Railway.

The IJN was still building on the docks and quays of Vladivostok to make it conform to its needs. There had been no booty at Tsingtao though the A-H old cruiser and some Torpedoboats had been salvaged but looked little like being worked up to enter service.

Both IJA and IJN was pretty impressed of the German fortifications and in some odd bout of sense some of the German engineers and artillery officers were willing to stay the next year to show how its done. Certainly it was way better than the old Imperial Russian fortifications at Darien and Port Arthur that had also been inspected and which the Germans had just laughed at. Though agreed to make a survey of the area and draw up a proposal of how they would fortify it.

The IJN certainly wanted to have some Dreadnoughts being in possession of 6 pre-Dreadnoughts with 2 building and another two on the drawing board. 1 Coastal Defence ship, 9 Armoured Cruiser, 21 CL, 76 DD with 3 building. (the IJN won't recieve its first Holland class SS ITTL)

The USA had two Fleets in the neighbourhood the Asian Fleet and the Pacific Fleet.
The Pacific Fleet comprising 4 Dreadnoughts, 5 DD, 2 SS, reserve fleet 2 AC, 5 CL, 6 DD,
The Asian Fleet 1 AC, 2 CL, 5 DD, 4 SS.
Those Dreadnoughts made the US an unwanted opponent at the moment but building to get on par would take years.

Japan had to rebuild losses and look for other Submarines for the IJN. Anyway it was by now rather occupied in Sibiria and with Polish information from radiointercepts they would be in the know should any Entente or other power be making noise about them.

  One other factor here is that Japan being from 1904 their a decade behind in both technology and military experience.  As such the attacks on Tsingtao would be with artillery and other equipment a decade behind the Germans and also lacking the experience they learnt in the war with Russia.

  OTL Japan got their 1st dreadnoughts designed by the UK, with the name ship, the Kongo being built in Britain while the rest of the class would be built in Japan.  Here Japan is technologically behind but they could purchase ships from Britain based on the existing alliance - albeit that the two nations are operating different versions of it which could complicate matters - and also in return for the withdrawal from Manchuria.  This would also fit in with the desire of British yards to find work with the naval race with Germany won.  There will be a desire for some new ships as well to emphasis Japan's great power status.  On the other hand the army will want as much resources as they can get for the expansion of the empire into Siberia and the probable clash with the Bolsheviks.

Well you made me look up the Siege of Port Arthur 1904 and Siege of Tsingtao 1905.

The IJA artillery in 1904 consisting of 474 pieces including 42 11" Siege Howitzers, for a total of 474 guns and howitzers. The Divisional Field Artillery consisting of 36 12cm Field Guns or 36 Mountain Howitzers both without recoil-sleigh thus the whole piece would recoil when fired - though this was also the case in some heavy artillery in 1914 in Europe!

The IJA fielded 201,000 troops at Port Arthur losing 58,000 KIA and wounded, 33,769 casualties to deseace. There was also some Navy guns employed in at field role and 30 IJA 12 cm Guns.

IJA artillery in 1914 consisted of 103 heavy Guns/Howitzers, 42 Field and Mountain guns - some 10,5 cm guns and 75 mm mountain guns. All modern pieces. Total IJA force 50,000.

I would think that the IJA of 1904 attacking Tsingtao would overcome that through sheer determination as they did the much larger Russian Garrison at Port Arthur where several field battles took place before the siege with a IJA superiority to Russian army of 2:1. That army would have a 53:1 superiority. Still the IJA will incur huge losses as the modern German artillery and machineguns manned by much better trained troops and naval ratings will take a huge toll on the IJA human wave attacks.

The major outcome of this is that the IJA don't have the Manchurian campaign experience of fighting the Russians in the fields thus when enterering the Bolshevic Armies may come out rather badly!

As the IJN were only to build their own pre-Dreadnoughts by 1905 and ITTL have lost the two Katori-class pre-Dreadnoughts that were building in Britain 1904 they may negotiate the British of replacements - which could make the British find some pre-Dreadnoughts as such and then negotiate the Japanese regarding building a Dreadnought as template for following builds.

[stevep]

Nov 22, 2024 23:29:20 GMT 575 said:

Nov 21, 2024 23:51:49 GMT stevep said:

  One other factor here is that Japan being from 1904 their a decade behind in both technology and military experience.  As such the attacks on Tsingtao would be with artillery and other equipment a decade behind the Germans and also lacking the experience they learnt in the war with Russia.

  OTL Japan got their 1st dreadnoughts designed by the UK, with the name ship, the Kongo being built in Britain while the rest of the class would be built in Japan.  Here Japan is technologically behind but they could purchase ships from Britain based on the existing alliance - albeit that the two nations are operating different versions of it which could complicate matters - and also in return for the withdrawal from Manchuria.  This would also fit in with the desire of British yards to find work with the naval race with Germany won.  There will be a desire for some new ships as well to emphasis Japan's great power status.  On the other hand the army will want as much resources as they can get for the expansion of the empire into Siberia and the probable clash with the Bolsheviks.

Well you made me look up the Siege of Port Arthur 1904 and Siege of Tsingtao 1905.

The IJA artillery in 1904 consisting of 474 pieces including 42 11" Siege Howitzers, for a total of 474 guns and howitzers. The Divisional Field Artillery consisting of 36 12cm Field Guns or 36 Mountain Howitzers both without recoil-sleigh thus the whole piece would recoil when fired - though this was also the case in some heavy artillery in 1914 in Europe!

The IJA fielded 201,000 troops at Port Arthur losing 58,000 KIA and wounded, 33,769 casualties to deseace. There was also some Navy guns employed in at field role and 30 IJA 12 cm Guns.

IJA artillery in 1914 consisted of 103 heavy Guns/Howitzers, 42 Field and Mountain guns - some 10,5 cm guns and 75 mm mountain guns. All modern pieces. Total IJA force 50,000.

I would think that the IJA of 1904 attacking Tsingtao would overcome that through sheer determination as they did the much larger Russian Garrison at Port Arthur where several field battles took place before the siege with a IJA superiority to Russian army of 2:1. That army would have a 53:1 superiority. Still the IJA will incur huge losses as the modern German artillery and machineguns manned by much better trained troops and naval ratings will take a huge toll on the IJA human wave attacks.

The major outcome of this is that the IJA don't have the Manchurian campaign experience of fighting the Russians in the fields thus when enterering the Bolshevic Armies may come out rather badly!

As the IJN were only to build their own pre-Dreadnoughts by 1905 and ITTL have lost the two Katori-class pre-Dreadnoughts that were building in Britain 1904 they may negotiate the British of replacements - which could make the British find some pre-Dreadnoughts as such and then negotiate the Japanese regarding building a Dreadnought as template for following builds.

  Well a lot might depend on what Britain is planning for its navy and also how it views the alliance with Japan.  It might offer a couple of the older 12" dreadnoughts at a low price as it could be deciding to retire them if they continuing constructing the R class, especially if they go for all 8 of them.  Alternatively they keep them but are likely to get rid of the pre-dreads.  They are now elderly and vulnerable plus requiring quite large crews.  Possibly the two most recently completed, about 7 years before Lord Nelson and Agamemnon might be offered to Japan.  Their not dreadnoughts but their probably the strongest pre-dreads and better than anything the Japanese have. 

  Alternatively if London doesn't see the value of the alliance any more, or wishes to have Japan concentrate on its army v the Bolsheviks so they might argue that that contract was completed, as far as 1914 Britain was concerned, with the ships delivered and the money received for them.

  I was thinking the Japanese will definitely have less battle experience having missed the 1904 war with Russia.  However while their likely to suffer some nasty losses against the Bolsheviks when they clash with them they should still markedly outclass them given how relatively shambolic a lot of the forces in the Russian civil war seem to have been.  Where they might suffer badly would be in logistics, especially as they advance deeper into Siberia and away from good supply lines.  I don't know how good Japanese logistical services were in 1904 but they would be taking a hell of a risk seeking to have forces live off the land as much as possible in Siberia, especially when winter comes.

[575]

Nov 23, 2024 14:42:26 GMT stevep said:

Nov 22, 2024 23:29:20 GMT 575 said:

Well you made me look up the Siege of Port Arthur 1904 and Siege of Tsingtao 1905.

The IJA artillery in 1904 consisting of 474 pieces including 42 11" Siege Howitzers, for a total of 474 guns and howitzers. The Divisional Field Artillery consisting of 36 12cm Field Guns or 36 Mountain Howitzers both without recoil-sleigh thus the whole piece would recoil when fired - though this was also the case in some heavy artillery in 1914 in Europe!

The IJA fielded 201,000 troops at Port Arthur losing 58,000 KIA and wounded, 33,769 casualties to deseace. There was also some Navy guns employed in at field role and 30 IJA 12 cm Guns.

IJA artillery in 1914 consisted of 103 heavy Guns/Howitzers, 42 Field and Mountain guns - some 10,5 cm guns and 75 mm mountain guns. All modern pieces. Total IJA force 50,000.

I would think that the IJA of 1904 attacking Tsingtao would overcome that through sheer determination as they did the much larger Russian Garrison at Port Arthur where several field battles took place before the siege with a IJA superiority to Russian army of 2:1. That army would have a 53:1 superiority. Still the IJA will incur huge losses as the modern German artillery and machineguns manned by much better trained troops and naval ratings will take a huge toll on the IJA human wave attacks.

The major outcome of this is that the IJA don't have the Manchurian campaign experience of fighting the Russians in the fields thus when enterering the Bolshevic Armies may come out rather badly!

As the IJN were only to build their own pre-Dreadnoughts by 1905 and ITTL have lost the two Katori-class pre-Dreadnoughts that were building in Britain 1904 they may negotiate the British of replacements - which could make the British find some pre-Dreadnoughts as such and then negotiate the Japanese regarding building a Dreadnought as template for following builds.

  Well a lot might depend on what Britain is planning for its navy and also how it views the alliance with Japan.  It might offer a couple of the older 12" dreadnoughts at a low price as it could be deciding to retire them if they continuing constructing the R class, especially if they go for all 8 of them.  Alternatively they keep them but are likely to get rid of the pre-dreads.  They are now elderly and vulnerable plus requiring quite large crews.  Possibly the two most recently completed, about 7 years before Lord Nelson and Agamemnon might be offered to Japan.  Their not dreadnoughts but their probably the strongest pre-dreads and better than anything the Japanese have. 

  Alternatively if London doesn't see the value of the alliance any more, or wishes to have Japan concentrate on its army v the Bolsheviks so they might argue that that contract was completed, as far as 1914 Britain was concerned, with the ships delivered and the money received for them.

  I was thinking the Japanese will definitely have less battle experience having missed the 1904 war with Russia.  However while their likely to suffer some nasty losses against the Bolsheviks when they clash with them they should still markedly outclass them given how relatively shambolic a lot of the forces in the Russian civil war seem to have been.  Where they might suffer badly would be in logistics, especially as they advance deeper into Siberia and away from good supply lines.  I don't know how good Japanese logistical services were in 1904 but they would be taking a hell of a risk seeking to have forces live off the land as much as possible in Siberia, especially when winter comes.

I think the Lord Nelson ships would be a good choice for offering the Japanese.

The question of continued Japanese alliance is somewhat moot with the less strong IJN I'd think and without a Russian Pacific Fleet to consider.

Without the surrender of the German Fleet construction of the 8 R-class seems the choice and selling/mothballing/scrapping of the pre-Dreadnoughts. Thus the British could leave the alliance in a nice way without upsetting the Japanese too much. Here You go - thank you very much!

If the British end the Japanese alliance they might redeploy BC New Zealand to the Pacific to make for 2x BC, 1x pre-Dreadnought, 1x AC, 19x LC, 20x DD, 5x SS and possibly French MN CL Dupleix which should make a decent force.

Certainly the IJA would have little battle experience which be a deficit to them though true somewhat better than the Russian Civil War forces. I don't see them stray too far away from the Trans-Sibirian RR on operations there due to lack of logistics. OTL they were very lacking in trained reserves and had taken a beating by the Russians in Manchuria not making matters any better.

I'd expect them to keep going due to the limited range off the T-SRR for some time. If only the various Russsians would be worse off. Though once Stalins armies show up with a lot more combat experience things would change.

[stevep]

Nov 24, 2024 0:38:51 GMT 575 said:

Nov 23, 2024 14:42:26 GMT stevep said:

  Well a lot might depend on what Britain is planning for its navy and also how it views the alliance with Japan.  It might offer a couple of the older 12" dreadnoughts at a low price as it could be deciding to retire them if they continuing constructing the R class, especially if they go for all 8 of them.  Alternatively they keep them but are likely to get rid of the pre-dreads.  They are now elderly and vulnerable plus requiring quite large crews.  Possibly the two most recently completed, about 7 years before Lord Nelson and Agamemnon might be offered to Japan.  Their not dreadnoughts but their probably the strongest pre-dreads and better than anything the Japanese have. 

  Alternatively if London doesn't see the value of the alliance any more, or wishes to have Japan concentrate on its army v the Bolsheviks so they might argue that that contract was completed, as far as 1914 Britain was concerned, with the ships delivered and the money received for them.

  I was thinking the Japanese will definitely have less battle experience having missed the 1904 war with Russia.  However while their likely to suffer some nasty losses against the Bolsheviks when they clash with them they should still markedly outclass them given how relatively shambolic a lot of the forces in the Russian civil war seem to have been.  Where they might suffer badly would be in logistics, especially as they advance deeper into Siberia and away from good supply lines.  I don't know how good Japanese logistical services were in 1904 but they would be taking a hell of a risk seeking to have forces live off the land as much as possible in Siberia, especially when winter comes.

I think the Lord Nelson ships would be a good choice for offering the Japanese.

The question of continued Japanese alliance is somewhat moot with the less strong IJN I'd think and without a Russian Pacific Fleet to consider.

Without the surrender of the German Fleet construction of the 8 R-class seems the choice and selling/mothballing/scrapping of the pre-Dreadnoughts. Thus the British could leave the alliance in a nice way without upsetting the Japanese too much. Here You go - thank you very much!

If the British end the Japanese alliance they might redeploy BC New Zealand to the Pacific to make for 2x BC, 1x pre-Dreadnought, 1x AC, 19x LC, 20x DD, 5x SS and possibly French MN CL Dupleix which should make a decent force.

Certainly the IJA would have little battle experience which be a deficit to them though true somewhat better than the Russian Civil War forces. I don't see them stray too far away from the Trans-Sibirian RR on operations there due to lack of logistics. OTL they were very lacking in trained reserves and had taken a beating by the Russians in Manchuria not making matters any better.

I'd expect them to keep going due to the limited range off the T-SRR for some time. If only the various Russsians would be worse off. Though once Stalins armies show up with a lot more combat experience things would change.

  The alliance could well go.  It was favoured in Australia and New Zealand historically as a way of keeping Japan on side but opposed by Canada because of the increasing hostility by the US to the alliance.  However given the much weaker IJN here - although how long that would last and given the continued potential threat from Germany which prevents major forces being moved to Asia - there would be less interest in the alliance from Australia and New Zealand.

  There could be an argument for a continued alliance with a more general theme rather than as a naval one.  I.e. to support Japanese operations in Siberia both diplomatically and possibly economically, in the process encouraging an emphasis on the army but in turn getting agreements that military expansion in China south of Manchuria won't occur.

  Having 2-3 I class DAC [Dreadnought Armoured Cruisers] as they were initially called before the press started to call them battlecruisers operating in the Far East, with a base in Australia or possibly later Singapore as OTL would be a decent force for the moment.  Being coal powered they could use existing stockpiles in the region and their speed would make them good for hunting down raiders, running down weaker forces or evading stronger ones.  A lot would depend on what happens with other powers, especially Japan and the US but also possibly France or Germany but that would seem a good allocation.  You still have 3 others to rotate through refits and operations in other areas.  Also the DAC's are small enough to use docking facilities in the region without a major expansion of capacities in the region.

  If Britain completes all 8 R class ships then I think the pre-dreads will definitely go.  They add very little to the fleet strength but would be big resource sinks, especially manpower while with German power checked and reduced a Liberal government especially is going to be reluctant to continue spending so much on defence.  That there is no naval treaty and Germany could continue building newer ships will probably be the biggest incentive as a way to say to Germany "try it again and we will still win a naval race".  Although it could depend on what happens in Germany as there's bound to be political unrest and change here but in what direct it would be unclear.

  Agree that the Trans Siberian will be the key facility in the war in Siberia.  Not sure that Bolshevik forces would be that much better although they would have some knowledge of tanks in some forms.  A lot might depend on what happens with Poland.  Does it and the Soviets openly clash or at least have a cold war which might prompt the Soviets to keep their best forces in the west?  The civil war trashed Russian industry far more than WWI did as well as much social disruption so it could be that a good defensive position in eastern Siberia, along with their naval superiority, which could include gunboats and transports on the Amur at the least would prompt the Soviets to give up on access to the Pacific.

[575]

Nov 24, 2024 11:40:51 GMT stevep said:

Nov 24, 2024 0:38:51 GMT 575 said:

I think the Lord Nelson ships would be a good choice for offering the Japanese.

The question of continued Japanese alliance is somewhat moot with the less strong IJN I'd think and without a Russian Pacific Fleet to consider.

Without the surrender of the German Fleet construction of the 8 R-class seems the choice and selling/mothballing/scrapping of the pre-Dreadnoughts. Thus the British could leave the alliance in a nice way without upsetting the Japanese too much. Here You go - thank you very much!

If the British end the Japanese alliance they might redeploy BC New Zealand to the Pacific to make for 2x BC, 1x pre-Dreadnought, 1x AC, 19x LC, 20x DD, 5x SS and possibly French MN CL Dupleix which should make a decent force.

Certainly the IJA would have little battle experience which be a deficit to them though true somewhat better than the Russian Civil War forces. I don't see them stray too far away from the Trans-Sibirian RR on operations there due to lack of logistics. OTL they were very lacking in trained reserves and had taken a beating by the Russians in Manchuria not making matters any better.

I'd expect them to keep going due to the limited range off the T-SRR for some time. If only the various Russsians would be worse off. Though once Stalins armies show up with a lot more combat experience things would change.

  The alliance could well go.  It was favoured in Australia and New Zealand historically as a way of keeping Japan on side but opposed by Canada because of the increasing hostility by the US to the alliance.  However given the much weaker IJN here - although how long that would last and given the continued potential threat from Germany which prevents major forces being moved to Asia - there would be less interest in the alliance from Australia and New Zealand.

  There could be an argument for a continued alliance with a more general theme rather than as a naval one.  I.e. to support Japanese operations in Siberia both diplomatically and possibly economically, in the process encouraging an emphasis on the army but in turn getting agreements that military expansion in China south of Manchuria won't occur.

  Having 2-3 I class DAC [Dreadnought Armoured Cruisers] as they were initially called before the press started to call them battlecruisers operating in the Far East, with a base in Australia or possibly later Singapore as OTL would be a decent force for the moment.  Being coal powered they could use existing stockpiles in the region and their speed would make them good for hunting down raiders, running down weaker forces or evading stronger ones.  A lot would depend on what happens with other powers, especially Japan and the US but also possibly France or Germany but that would seem a good allocation.  You still have 3 others to rotate through refits and operations in other areas.  Also the DAC's are small enough to use docking facilities in the region without a major expansion of capacities in the region.

  If Britain completes all 8 R class ships then I think the pre-dreads will definitely go.  They add very little to the fleet strength but would be big resource sinks, especially manpower while with German power checked and reduced a Liberal government especially is going to be reluctant to continue spending so much on defence.  That there is no naval treaty and Germany could continue building newer ships will probably be the biggest incentive as a way to say to Germany "try it again and we will still win a naval race".  Although it could depend on what happens in Germany as there's bound to be political unrest and change here but in what direct it would be unclear.

  Agree that the Trans Siberian will be the key facility in the war in Siberia.  Not sure that Bolshevik forces would be that much better although they would have some knowledge of tanks in some forms.  A lot might depend on what happens with Poland.  Does it and the Soviets openly clash or at least have a cold war which might prompt the Soviets to keep their best forces in the west?  The civil war trashed Russian industry far more than WWI did as well as much social disruption so it could be that a good defensive position in eastern Siberia, along with their naval superiority, which could include gunboats and transports on the Amur at the least would prompt the Soviets to give up on access to the Pacific.

I'm working on the Pacific situation thanks for much appreciated input. I'm letting the British go of the Japan alliance but continue trade and other beneficial means - loans and assistance for its eventual Naval improvement to keep it out of China/Manchuria at the time.

Agree that quality should rule RN so the full R-class being build and older ships gotten rid off, sold in reserve.

Britain - and France - as well as other countries won't be indebted to the USA as OTL so much better economics. Germany and A-H with loss of lands and for A-H Galizian Oil will be something of a gamechanger. Haven't worked this out yet.

Russian Far East was OTL a quick go when Kolchaks army collapsed east of the Urals and the Bolshevics were then on L Baikal. East of that the going gets really tough - haven't figured this out too but the IJA won't be the IJA of OTL 1919 so less capable in the field. If severely bloodied it will need a real rebuild as reserves will have been burned out - then the Japanese will have a choice of IJA vs. IJN. ITTL the IJA will have to be the winner at least in the short run as a serious defeat would shake society and the foundation of Government which prior to "democratic" government had been designed to leave a lot of power with the Military. Don't know how this will be playing out - could mean a deep change of Japanese political system I think. (just popped into my mind writing so have to give this more thought - of course Japanese Sibiria east of L Baikal could be interesting)

[575]

Turkey March 1915/20/31
As the majority of the German Military Mission had left a growing group of White Russian Army officers sought a new job with the Turk Army. Though the Turks was weary of their presence they could always be used for front command preserving som Turks for other branches.
Among these White Russians were a Majorgeneral Pyotr Wrangel who had run afoul of his commander Denikin in Ukraine and sought refuge in Constantinoble though sitting quiet wasn't his cup of tea when his country was in need of his service.
Wrangel took command of a Cavalry force in the Kalmy Steppelands and was allowed to try move northeast to possibly link up with Admiral Kolchaks Army east of the Urals.

During this month the British had decided to give HMS Agincourt and HMS Erin an emergency makeover following warservice in the North Sea before returing them to the Med and their new Turkish home.
Generally unknown was the Polish message regaring their interpretation of the Greeks reluctance to join the Entente and their buying of the US Mississippi pre-Dreadnoughts. The Polish wrote nothing about their ponderings on the Dodecanese Is. Room 40 and the Admiralty should be able to make their own assessments for such.

The date of arrival of the two Dreadnoughts at Constantinoble was one of great festivities in Turkey.
Arriving flying the White Ensign and having made a short visit at Crete on their way the two Dreadnoughts enteres the Golden Horn to an immense cacophony of drum's and Shawm's; turbans; flags; men women and children and the whole of the Turk Navy command, PM, MoD and Min Foreign Affairs at quayside along the British Envoy at Constantinoble and a suitable following of Navy and Army officers of Admiral/General rank with a few French such also mixed in.

In effect the entire Turk Music:

[575]

Whitehall March 1915/20/31
PM Asquith was fairly secure he would manage the upcoming elections by July 1915 – the December 1914 elections had been postponed due to the ongoing negotiations to end the War but Asquith had promised elections being held within half a year unless negotiations fail and War being thus again proceeded.
As he understood from the history books provided by Poland he would have formed a Coalition Government this year due to his bad management of the war.
He had been able not to enforce conscription nor empty the coffers of Empire indebting it to the Americans.
He also understood that without the prolonged War the running of Empire would be a continuation of the pre-War line with the Dominions probably less demanding of more internal rule.
The real effort of Empire had been the Australian – New Zealand contribution in the Pacific defeating the German East Asia Squadron and in recognition of such he had the Admiralty send the BC HMNZS New Zealand to China Station with frequent visits to its home nation to strengthen the bond between Dominion and Motherland.
To lessen the burden on the RN in the Pacific it would reallocate ships more modern to that area to be crewed by Australians and New Zealanders – but of course the RN would still be in command of China Station!

The Japanese alliance would be abandoned officially due a massacre at Tsingtao when the fortress fell and German and A-H troops were captured and beheaded; European as well as Asian women brutalized with little interference from the IJA/IJN commanders.
The Japanese had indeed suffered huge casualties but that was going over the top.
Some troops massacred – ok. Some Asian women brutalized – well, ok. Huge number of troops massacred – ehem, no. European women brutalized by little yellow monkees – NO WAY!

The Commanding officer, British contingent Maj.General N W Barnardiston, 2 Bn, South Wales Borderes and 36th Sikh Infantry Regiment and Commander China Station Vice-Adm. Sir Martyn Jerram being on site due to the German surrender.
Vice-Adm. Sir Martyn Jerram and Maj.General Barnardiston told the IJA Commander General Nogi Maresuke to stop the massacre and hand over all European civilians to British command or face the consequences.
Maresuke had initially laughted at this but seeing the British troops and Marines marched up ready for battle even if totally outnumbered by his troops he ordered the IJA to cease its activities and hand over all European civilians to the British.
The IJA kept control of the POWs but stopped the massacre.

In return Britain would offer Japan a fair trade deal and a couple of more recent pre-Dreadnoughts in return for the pair build 1904. Which the Japanese apparently had gained knowledge of – presumably those German/A-H Navy officers had thought about the small IJN and inquired their captors of their puny Navy!
Japan had to be kept out of Manchuria – Korea, Dairien/Port Arthur and Tsingtao should be sufficient war booty besides what they would be able to dig out of Sibiria.

The real reason being the lack of serious opposition in the Pacific with the movement of HMNZS New Zealand to China Station – the IJN being tiny and the Russian threat eliminated.
No need to keep an ally afloat when not necessary and risk being dragged into an unwanted war.

The Tsingsao incident also made waves within Europe mainly so at Frankfurt and Vienna but also in London, Paris and Rome where protesters would denounce the Japanese atrocities.

[stevep]

Nov 24, 2024 18:14:05 GMT 575 said:

Whitehall March 1915/20/31
PM Asquith was fairly secure he would manage the upcoming elections by July 1915 – the December 1914 elections had been postponed due to the ongoing negotiations to end the War but Asquith had promised elections being held within half a year unless negotiations fail and War being thus again proceeded.
As he understood from the history books provided by Poland he would have formed a Coalition Government this year due to his bad management of the war.
He had been able not to enforce conscription nor empty the coffers of Empire indebting it to the Americans.
He also understood that without the prolonged War the running of Empire would be a continuation of the pre-War line with the Dominions probably less demanding of more internal rule.
The real effort of Empire had been the Australian – New Zealand contribution in the Pacific defeating the German East Asia Squadron and in recognition of such he had the Admiralty send the BC HMNZS New Zealand to China Station with frequent visits to its home nation to strengthen the bond between Dominion and Motherland.
To lessen the burden on the RN in the Pacific it would reallocate ships more modern to that area to be crewed by Australians and New Zealanders – but of course the RN would still be in command of China Station!

The Japanese alliance would be abandoned officially due a massacre at Tsingtao when the fortress fell and German and A-H troops were captured and beheaded; European as well as Asian women brutalized with little interference from the IJA/IJN commanders.
The Japanese had indeed suffered huge casualties but that was going over the top.
Some troops massacred – ok. Some Asian women brutalized – well, ok. Huge number of troops massacred – ehem, no. European women brutalized by little yellow monkees – NO WAY!

The Commanding officer, British contingent Maj.General N W Barnardiston, 2 Bn, South Wales Borderes and 36th Sikh Infantry Regiment and Commander China Station Vice-Adm. Sir Martyn Jerram being on site due to the German surrender.
Vice-Adm. Sir Martyn Jerram and Maj.General Barnardiston told the IJA Commander General Nogi Maresuke to stop the massacre and hand over all European civilians to British command or face the consequences.
Maresuke had initially laughted at this but seeing the British troops and Marines marched up ready for battle even if totally outnumbered by his troops he ordered the IJA to cease its activities and hand over all European civilians to the British.
The IJA kept control of the POWs but stopped the massacre.

In return Britain would offer Japan a fair trade deal and a couple of more recent pre-Dreadnoughts in return for the pair build 1904. Which the Japanese apparently had gained knowledge of – presumably those German/A-H Navy officers had thought about the small IJN and inquired their captors of their puny Navy!
Japan had to be kept out of Manchuria – Korea, Dairien/Port Arthur and Tsingtao should be sufficient war booty besides what they would be able to dig out of Sibiria.

The real reason being the lack of serious opposition in the Pacific with the movement of HMNZS New Zealand to China Station – the IJN being tiny and the Russian threat eliminated.
No need to keep an ally afloat when not necessary and risk being dragged into an unwanted war.

The Tsingsao incident also made waves within Europe mainly so at Frankfurt and Vienna but also in London, Paris and Rome where protesters would denounce the Japanese atrocities.

  One small point is that the reason why HMS New Zealand was RN manned and operated was because the New Zealand government having paid for the construction of the ship did have the resources to actually fund its manning and operation.  Australia did operate its named ship, hence why it was HMAS Australia.  It might be that both dominions would be willing to take up more of the costs of local naval defence but, especially given the primary immediate threats to them - the German Far East Squadron and the IJN had been largely removed - one by sinking the other by losing a decade it might well be that their not that eager.

 Asquith will probably win the election and possibly even gain a majority without needing to depend on the Irish Nationalists - a short successful war tends to make you popular - but could still have problems if Ireland especially blows up before then as it might.

  Also he will know how the Liberal party split over his continued inability to rule the government during the war with Lloyd George and some Liberals breaking away.  That this divisions wasn't resolved post war and it led to the Liberals ceasing to be a major party in the political system might prompt an agreement to ignore what happened in the time line Poland came from but relations between Asquith and Lloyd George could be rather rocky.

  Also going to be interesting what the assorted military's in the various countries say about what 1930 Poland tells them about the 1914-18 war.  For instance for someone with an interest in naval history reports about the heavy losses at Jutland and the unreliability of British shells will be noted and action taken.  This is going to be a case for all powers with diplomatic representations in 1930 Poland.

[575]

Poland March 1915/20/31
Marshal Pilsudski was quite contend.
His troops had giving Imperial Germany a serious lesson. It wouldn't leave its borders unguarded once again. Such an opportunity is a one off.
Next time would be harder much harder but then he would have the defensive alliance to engage the Germans in the West.

Better aircraft and a real Navy. And hopefully no enemy in the east so allies if only because of common interest in survival – Japanese, Turks, Finns, Baltics, Romanians should be groomed as much as Poland could by entering secret intelligence operations/networks.

Though that would be into the future now it was time to get trade flourishing again. He had the Galizian oilfields and agricultural produce – not as effective as Denmarks but more than his peoples themselves could digest.

Then A-H. Still with a slightly unruly Italy on its western borders though peace had been made with Serbia which had resulted in a very unusual trail with A-H investigators cooperating with Serb ones interrogating Black Hand operatives/members in Belgrade and relating finds to a A-H court that would decide sentences or dismissal. Sentences to be served in Serbia. All in the fremwork of the initail A-H demands of July 1914.

An outcome of the judicial process lead to an international discussion of the setting up of an International Court of Justice where such cases could be tried. The IJA/IJN atrocities in Tsingtao was one of the cases that could be heard at such a court.

PM Asquith wasn't adverse to the idea and advocated it but the discussions didn't go much further at the time as the USA rejected the idea as did of course the Japanese – and the seat of such court was difficult to determine though both the Netherlands that had been neutral in the recent European War as well as Switzerland being traditionally a neutral was brought up as was Brazil to bring South America into focus.
Even Poland was quite involved in the discussion as Pilsudski viewed the court of another way of settling the borders of his country and floated the Permanent Court of International Justice set up since 1920 as an outcome of the LoN in its previous timeline.

The idea sounded well to many but the powers were somewhat against it as Wartime cooperating had been falling apart and the arrival of Poland had torn up Europe as had the Russia in Civil War and the odd Japan.

[stevep]

   Before I forget again were the atrocities reported about Japanese behaviour historical OTL?  Only - while I haven't looked at in in detail for some decades - but in the war against Russia in 1904-05 the Japanese were supposed to have scrupulously kept to the rules of war.  At the time Japan still looked to the western powers as role models and sought to follow their behaviour as closely as possible. The military were very influential but the sort of barbarism generally associated with their behaviour in China from 1937 and then WWII didn't really start until the 1930's as far as I'm aware.

  In terms of Polish success against Germany of course the key factor other than the technological and knowledge advantage the Poles had was that the CP forces that would be in a position to defend Germany and A-H's eastern borders were largely destroyed by the ISOT, which helped considerably. 

  Poland does need allies and winning as much support as possible with its eastern neighbours would be very useful but the gorilla issue is what becomes of the former Russian empire and while some fringe areas have managed to break away its going to be largely unified under the Bolshevik/Soviet empire and will weak for a while that won't last indefinitely, especially since they seem to be winning faster than OTL.

  One issue might be Austria.  There could be the option of friendly, or at least not hostile relations with them, especially when Franz Joseph passes away but that would clash with good relations with Romania which desires Transylvanian, still in Hungarian hands.