4 August 1914 - Poland of July 1930, Russia of June 1919 and Imperial Japan of 8 February 1905 ISOT

[stevep]

Nov 10, 2024 8:31:02 GMT 575 said:

October 1914/19/30
West Front
The three German Army Groups in the West, 1. in the North, 2. Center - Ardennes, 3. Lorraine and 7. Army Vosges held on to their positions despite Entente pressure in the north the BEF, French 5. Army and Belgian Army, in the center the French 4. and 3. Armies and in the southern part French 2., 1. and Army of Alsace.
The German commanders had succeeded in not sending more than 7 Corps east following the initial during August of 4 Corps thus keeping 26 Corps on the frontline or Army Group reserves.
Terrain in the Center and South served the defenders well while the more flat Flanders and central Belgium was another matter hence the 1. Army Group being the largest.

There had been some well timed Entente offensives especially the one following the last ceding of troops for the east when the French 4. and 3. Armies were able to advance further into the Ardennes actually threatening to cut the logistics lines of 1. Army Group by getting into 10 km's distance of the River Maas/Meuse south of Liege.

The German General Staff had actually been in contact with the Dutch Commander to get a permission to withdraw through Maastricht should it be necessary. However before negotiations would finish the danger had been averted and 1 Army Group had retreated behind the Maas/Meuse in the process the other two Army Groups had shifted south actually being able to pull 7. Army out of the line to keep in Front Reserve.
When finally finding out both Emperor William and General v. Moltke were furious of the silence on 7. Army new positions and demanding its being moved East.
Minister of War General v. Falkenhayn had wisely stuck to his post not interfering in the heated exchange at highest leadership level.

  Well that is significantly better for the allies territoriality than OTL, with the front in Belgium on the Maas/Meuse.  Saves a lot more of Belgium and removes the OTL thorn in the allied side of German subs operating from the Belgium ports, as well as making more secure allied trade with the Netherlands.  Will be a good defensive position for the Germans so, coupled with the time Britain needs to expand its military initial future offensives by the western powers are likely to be by the French further south.  Also secures those saltpetre stocks in Antwerp which will increase German problems in the short term.  Also it will mean the French heavy industry area around Lille will be safely back in allied hands so that will be a big boost to the resources and morale of the French.

[575]

East Front
Nobody on the German side knew the exact size of the Polish Army.
Only that it was still keeping 8. Army invested in Königsberg – a force of 4 Corps that was well needed else.where. OTOH that army also tied down an expected sizeable Polish force which wasn't able to partake in the war further west on the Oder of Elbe Rivers. v. Moltke wanted to evacuate 8. Army but the Emperor was keen to keep a hold on East Prussia.

On the Oder mainly at Stettin but also observing the lower parts of the river down to the Finow Canal leading west to the Elbe was the 9. Army of two Reserve and one Landwehr Corps mainly guarding the Oder and Canal able to fall back on the lake-moorland of Mecklenburg and West Pommern.
Along the Elbe were the 10. Army in Prussian Saxony with the originally 4 corps drawn from the West front and on the Elbe in Thuringa was the 11. Army of 3 Reserve Corps.

Having more than the basic layout of the German armies Marshal Pilsudski was sorely tempted to cross the Elbe. He still had some 35 Infantry Divisions, 8 Cavalry Brigades and the Tank Regiment against the 20 German Divisions in 10 Corps of which only 3 were first line and 1 a Landwehr Formation.
His General Staff was against it. It was only a matter of time before the Germans would come to the negotiating table – the news of the defeat of v. Spee's East Asia Squadron would soon reach Germany as would the loss of Kamerun colony. v. Lettow-Vorbeck in German East Africa was a mere nuisance and South West Africa was only a matter of time before the British would invade and out the German rule.

What wondered the Poles the most was the continued keeping of 8. Army at Königsberg. Three first line Corps and one Reserve that would surely up the quality of the Army in the East.
They didn't know that v. Moltke and the Emperor was haggling just over this issue with Moltke wanting to evacuate the troops and use them in Pommern to envelop the Poles.

The German attack across the Elbe did materialize as the French were pressing on the West Front still wanting to take back Alsace-Lorraine the 10. Army in Prussian Saxony tried crossing the river.
The Germans hadn't understood the lessons so far.
The Poles let the Guards Reserve Corps get across the river before artillery directed by air-observers destroyed the pontoonbridges and trapped the Corps on the east bank.
Then the artillery shifted across the river and hit the second echelon ready to cross consisting of the 21. Corps. This scattered having only light losses but the Guards Reserve Corps was annihaleted on the east bank though a large number tried to swim back across the river.

[stevep]

Nov 11, 2024 19:40:07 GMT 575 said:

East Front
Nobody on the German side knew the exact size of the Polish Army.
Only that it was still keeping 8. Army invested in Königsberg – a force of 4 Corps that was well needed else.where. OTOH that army also tied down an expected sizeable Polish force which wasn't able to partake in the war further west on the Oder of Elbe Rivers. v. Moltke wanted to evacuate 8. Army but the Emperor was keen to keep a hold on East Prussia.

On the Oder mainly at Stettin but also observing the lower parts of the river down to the Finow Canal leading west to the Elbe was the 9. Army of two Reserve and one Landwehr Corps mainly guarding the Oder and Canal able to fall back on the lake-moorland of Mecklenburg and West Pommern.
Along the Elbe were the 10. Army in Prussian Saxony with the originally 4 corps drawn from the West front and on the Elbe in Thuringa was the 11. Army of 3 Reserve Corps.

Having more than the basic layout of the German armies Marshal Pilsudski was sorely tempted to cross the Elbe. He still had some 35 Infantry Divisions, 8 Cavalry Brigades and the Tank Regiment against the 20 German Divisions in 10 Corps of which only 3 were first line and 1 a Landwehr Formation.
His General Staff was against it. It was only a matter of time before the Germans would come to the negotiating table – the news of the defeat of v. Spee's East Asia Squadron would soon reach Germany as would the loss of Kamerun colony. v. Lettow-Vorbeck in German East Africa was a mere nuisance and South West Africa was only a matter of time before the British would invade and out the German rule.

What wondered the Poles the most was the continued keeping of 8. Army at Königsberg. Three first line Corps and one Reserve that would surely up the quality of the Army in the East.
They didn't know that v. Moltke and the Emperor was haggling just over this issue with Moltke wanting to evacuate the troops and use them in Pommern to envelop the Poles.

The German attack across the Elbe did materialize as the French were pressing on the West Front still wanting to take back Alsace-Lorraine the 10. Army in Prussian Saxony tried crossing the river.
The Germans hadn't understood the lessons so far.
The Poles let the Guards Reserve Corps get across the river before artillery directed by air-observers destroyed the pontoonbridges and trapped the Corps on the east bank.
Then the artillery shifted across the river and hit the second echelon ready to cross consisting of the 21. Corps. This scattered having only light losses but the Guards Reserve Corps was annihaleted on the east bank though a large number tried to swim back across the river.

  Well another bad defeat for the Germans.  They have a hell of a lot of potential further manpower they could recruit but probably seriously problems maintaining supplies for what their got left, let alone equipping and supplying new formations. 

  I get the feeling that v Moltke won't be in office much longer, as he's will either be sacked or resign in frustration that the Kaiser doesn't realise further attacks won't work and peace is needed.

  Good for the Poles that Pilsudski is being restrained by his general staff.  Much easier to hold the current line and wait out the Germans.

[575]

Nov 12, 2024 0:28:47 GMT stevep said:

Nov 11, 2024 19:40:07 GMT 575 said:

East Front
Nobody on the German side knew the exact size of the Polish Army.
Only that it was still keeping 8. Army invested in Königsberg – a force of 4 Corps that was well needed else.where. OTOH that army also tied down an expected sizeable Polish force which wasn't able to partake in the war further west on the Oder of Elbe Rivers. v. Moltke wanted to evacuate 8. Army but the Emperor was keen to keep a hold on East Prussia.

On the Oder mainly at Stettin but also observing the lower parts of the river down to the Finow Canal leading west to the Elbe was the 9. Army of two Reserve and one Landwehr Corps mainly guarding the Oder and Canal able to fall back on the lake-moorland of Mecklenburg and West Pommern.
Along the Elbe were the 10. Army in Prussian Saxony with the originally 4 corps drawn from the West front and on the Elbe in Thuringa was the 11. Army of 3 Reserve Corps.

Having more than the basic layout of the German armies Marshal Pilsudski was sorely tempted to cross the Elbe. He still had some 35 Infantry Divisions, 8 Cavalry Brigades and the Tank Regiment against the 20 German Divisions in 10 Corps of which only 3 were first line and 1 a Landwehr Formation.
His General Staff was against it. It was only a matter of time before the Germans would come to the negotiating table – the news of the defeat of v. Spee's East Asia Squadron would soon reach Germany as would the loss of Kamerun colony. v. Lettow-Vorbeck in German East Africa was a mere nuisance and South West Africa was only a matter of time before the British would invade and out the German rule.

What wondered the Poles the most was the continued keeping of 8. Army at Königsberg. Three first line Corps and one Reserve that would surely up the quality of the Army in the East.
They didn't know that v. Moltke and the Emperor was haggling just over this issue with Moltke wanting to evacuate the troops and use them in Pommern to envelop the Poles.

The German attack across the Elbe did materialize as the French were pressing on the West Front still wanting to take back Alsace-Lorraine the 10. Army in Prussian Saxony tried crossing the river.
The Germans hadn't understood the lessons so far.
The Poles let the Guards Reserve Corps get across the river before artillery directed by air-observers destroyed the pontoonbridges and trapped the Corps on the east bank.
Then the artillery shifted across the river and hit the second echelon ready to cross consisting of the 21. Corps. This scattered having only light losses but the Guards Reserve Corps was annihaleted on the east bank though a large number tried to swim back across the river.

  Well another bad defeat for the Germans.  They have a hell of a lot of potential further manpower they could recruit but probably seriously problems maintaining supplies for what their got left, let alone equipping and supplying new formations. 

  I get the feeling that v Moltke won't be in office much longer, as he's will either be sacked or resign in frustration that the Kaiser doesn't realise further attacks won't work and peace is needed.

  Good for the Poles that Pilsudski is being restrained by his general staff.  Much easier to hold the current line and wait out the Germans.

Even the Poles of 1930 would understand that if they marched into the gap of German defences 1914 which they knew about they would also know about the Germans striking back and all Williams rethoric about the eastern hordes would see to that likely being effected.

Though the Poles have the troops - two-thirds superiority of the Germans in the East - its a much better position building defences on two major rivers and letting the Germans bleed.

Would be the dream of any commander - just have a look a the Italians on the Isonzo on their eastern border. That ought to be sufficient inspiration on how to conduct the battle strategically.

Big question is of course are the Germans about ready to talk peace?

[575]

Tsingtao
The Japanese were all over.
The German Garrison had capitulated only after fierce and well executed defences though these had been demolished during the siege and in the final assault.
The British left Tsingtao to the Japanese to administer and rebuild – better get out before they want subsidiaries for the rebuilding.

The IJA and IJN was satisfied though the IJA the most. The IJN had done what it could to transport the IJA troops to Tsingtao as it had to Vladivostok and Korea and had participated in bombarding the city. That was it.
The IJA didn't waste a minute in reminding that they had marched to the Urals to support the Army of Admiral Kolchak and had taken the city.
True the British had moved up a brigade that secured part of the encirclement but the real blood had been spilled by the IJA. Now the IJA wanted more – much more. It didn't need islands – pah! They wanted huge trachts of land to rule – huge. Chinese ones.
According to the Poles they already had more than during 1914 or 19 but they wanted more.

Towards the IJN the Poles excused themselves. They were a landlocked nation. They had a small strip of coast but only for the past decade and not even a real Navy.
The British knew how to use a Navy but the IJN already well knew so.

[stevep]

Nov 12, 2024 9:03:27 GMT 575 said:

Nov 12, 2024 0:28:47 GMT stevep said:

  Well another bad defeat for the Germans.  They have a hell of a lot of potential further manpower they could recruit but probably seriously problems maintaining supplies for what their got left, let alone equipping and supplying new formations. 

  I get the feeling that v Moltke won't be in office much longer, as he's will either be sacked or resign in frustration that the Kaiser doesn't realise further attacks won't work and peace is needed.

  Good for the Poles that Pilsudski is being restrained by his general staff.  Much easier to hold the current line and wait out the Germans.

Even the Poles of 1930 would understand that if they marched into the gap of German defences 1914 which they knew about they would also know about the Germans striking back and all Williams rethoric about the eastern hordes would see to that likely being effected.

Though the Poles have the troops - two-thirds superiority of the Germans in the East - its a much better position building defences on two major rivers and letting the Germans bleed.

Would be the dream of any commander - just have a look a the Italians on the Isonzo on their eastern border. That ought to be sufficient inspiration on how to conduct the battle strategically.

Big question is of course are the Germans about ready to talk peace?

  Wilhelm isn't, yet anyway.  However others including some generals are probably seeing the desperate situation and thinking of at least seeking terms with the Poles as they realise their totally outmatched technologically and with the demands of the western front they can't try mobilizing greater numbers to overwhelm the Poles.  Of course if someone persuaded the Kaiser to see sense two other questions come to mind.

a)  Would Poland be willing to agree to a separate peace? - It would free them to look at the potential threat from the east but would leave them diplomatically isolated as the western powers are likely to be unhappy so could go either way.

b)  What terms could be agreed between the two sides?  Poland would want territory to secure its position but how much would the Germans agree to?

  The other option of course being that Wilhelm II is removed in some way but at this stage that would be deeply controversial.

  Before I forget you have mentioned the other princes inside the empire being as determined as the Prussian ones to fight the Poles and 'liberate' the eastern lands.  Not sure this would be the case as while Prussia is important to the Hohenzollern dynasty but markedly less important to the other princes.  Also IIRC only the Bavarian kingdom still has a separate army, the forces from the other states being absorbed into the general German one.

[stevep]

Nov 12, 2024 10:39:09 GMT 575 said:

Tsingtao
The Japanese were all over.
The German Garrison had capitulated only after fierce and well executed defences though these had been demolished during the siege and in the final assault.
The British left Tsingtao to the Japanese to administer and rebuild – better get out before they want subsidiaries for the rebuilding.

The IJA and IJN was satisfied though the IJA the most. The IJN had done what it could to transport the IJA troops to Tsingtao as it had to Vladivostok and Korea and had participated in bombarding the city. That was it.
The IJA didn't waste a minute in reminding that they had marched to the Urals to support the Army of Admiral Kolchak and had taken the city.
True the British had moved up a brigade that secured part of the encirclement but the real blood had been spilled by the IJA. Now the IJA wanted more – much more. It didn't need islands – pah! They wanted huge trachts of land to rule – huge. Chinese ones.
According to the Poles they already had more than during 1914 or 19 but they wanted more.

Towards the IJN the Poles excused themselves. They were a landlocked nation. They had a small strip of coast but only for the past decade and not even a real Navy.
The British knew how to use a Navy but the IJN already well knew so.

  The IJN has some recent - very recent for them - battle experience but their way behind technologically and they also need help from someone to start catching up.  Most likely their British allies but Britain won't be building ships for Japan until the war with Germany is over.  Neither will the French and given a level of racial antagonism I suspect the US won't be that popular with the idea either.  Britain will probably provide some technical knowledge and promises of sales later on but for the moment relatively little and a programme to get a fleet as large as the current one - let alone challenging the great powers - of dreadnought standards would be hugely expensive.

  Plus as you say the army wants more land and that would take a lot of money and manpower itself.  Not sure what your mentioning about marching as far as the Urals as I don't think they did that historically and doing so now could be controversial as well as seen as counter-productive?  Both because to 1904 Japan Imperial Russia is the big enemy and its good to see it divided and weak and because any major involvement in Russia would distract from China.  The more Machiavellian Japanese politicians and generals might consider the best option is similar to what their been told by their people in Poland, having the Bolsheviks win but a Japanese involvement to secure a Russian puppet state in eastern Siberia as a buffer zone.

  They would still have to be careful as technologically their a decade behind the rest of the world while with things going well for the allies Britain [especially] and France have more leeway to put pressure on Japan not to go too far in China, while the US will also be opposed.  OTL the Japanese had to back down from their 21 demands and if they try something like that here the same is likely to happen.  China is in greater turmoil with the empire having fallen and a lot of disorder but there's also going to be a strong reaction inside China, possibly leading to an earlier reunification or at least some alliance between some of the factions.  Not saying Japan making sizeable territorial conquests is impossible but they will face opposition.  Very likely to have domination over Manchuria, whether direct or via proxy and influence elsewhere but they can't go too far.

[575]

Nov 12, 2024 10:50:26 GMT stevep said:

Nov 12, 2024 9:03:27 GMT 575 said:

Even the Poles of 1930 would understand that if they marched into the gap of German defences 1914 which they knew about they would also know about the Germans striking back and all Williams rethoric about the eastern hordes would see to that likely being effected.

Though the Poles have the troops - two-thirds superiority of the Germans in the East - its a much better position building defences on two major rivers and letting the Germans bleed.

Would be the dream of any commander - just have a look a the Italians on the Isonzo on their eastern border. That ought to be sufficient inspiration on how to conduct the battle strategically.

Big question is of course are the Germans about ready to talk peace?

  Wilhelm isn't, yet anyway.  However others including some generals are probably seeing the desperate situation and thinking of at least seeking terms with the Poles as they realise their totally outmatched technologically and with the demands of the western front they can't try mobilizing greater numbers to overwhelm the Poles.  Of course if someone persuaded the Kaiser to see sense two other questions come to mind.

a)  Would Poland be willing to agree to a separate peace? - It would free them to look at the potential threat from the east but would leave them diplomatically isolated as the western powers are likely to be unhappy so could go either way.

b)  What terms could be agreed between the two sides?  Poland would want territory to secure its position but how much would the Germans agree to?

  The other option of course being that Wilhelm II is removed in some way but at this stage that would be deeply controversial.

  Before I forget you have mentioned the other princes inside the empire being as determined as the Prussian ones to fight the Poles and 'liberate' the eastern lands.  Not sure this would be the case as while Prussia is important to the Hohenzollern dynasty but markedly less important to the other princes.  Also IIRC only the Bavarian kingdom still has a separate army, the forces from the other states being absorbed into the general German one.

I thought so about Wilhelm hence his stance on East Prussia while v. Moltke see things in a more realistic way.

a) I'd expect the Poles to honor their "alliance" with the Entante and anyway they won't like the Baltic being a German lake though they can't do much about that at least as long there is no Russia/Sovietunion or Denmark still being a Neutral.

Should they do the French would be howling threachery.

The Poles should be able to realize they are not defeating Imp. Germany on their own and it would be in their interest to have a kind of alliance post war.

b) Now that would be difficult - the Poles would for minimums be having Danzig, Southern East Prussia - Polish majority though Protestant and southeast Silesia.

Maximum - Oder border. But they have to live with the neighbour afterwards and that would be the sweet dream I guess of Pilsudski lacking a defensible border in the West.

I don't see Wilhelm being removed ITTL though I have toyed with a Communist uprising in Germany in awaiting "Kingdom come."

Well I'd guess the Imperial Crown Prince of Germany will being next in line for the Imperial Crown. The Saxon and Bavarian less so though the easternmost part of Royal Saxony east of the Elbe is Polish occupied and anyway the Poles know what happened to German Royalty post WWI - as do the Soviets!

[575]

Nov 12, 2024 11:09:37 GMT stevep said:

Nov 12, 2024 10:39:09 GMT 575 said:

Tsingtao
The Japanese were all over.
The German Garrison had capitulated only after fierce and well executed defences though these had been demolished during the siege and in the final assault.
The British left Tsingtao to the Japanese to administer and rebuild – better get out before they want subsidiaries for the rebuilding.

The IJA and IJN was satisfied though the IJA the most. The IJN had done what it could to transport the IJA troops to Tsingtao as it had to Vladivostok and Korea and had participated in bombarding the city. That was it.
The IJA didn't waste a minute in reminding that they had marched to the Urals to support the Army of Admiral Kolchak and had taken the city.
True the British had moved up a brigade that secured part of the encirclement but the real blood had been spilled by the IJA. Now the IJA wanted more – much more. It didn't need islands – pah! They wanted huge trachts of land to rule – huge. Chinese ones.
According to the Poles they already had more than during 1914 or 19 but they wanted more.

Towards the IJN the Poles excused themselves. They were a landlocked nation. They had a small strip of coast but only for the past decade and not even a real Navy.
The British knew how to use a Navy but the IJN already well knew so.

  The IJN has some recent - very recent for them - battle experience but their way behind technologically and they also need help from someone to start catching up.  Most likely their British allies but Britain won't be building ships for Japan until the war with Germany is over.  Neither will the French and given a level of racial antagonism I suspect the US won't be that popular with the idea either.  Britain will probably provide some technical knowledge and promises of sales later on but for the moment relatively little and a programme to get a fleet as large as the current one - let alone challenging the great powers - of dreadnought standards would be hugely expensive.

  Plus as you say the army wants more land and that would take a lot of money and manpower itself.  Not sure what your mentioning about marching as far as the Urals as I don't think they did that historically and doing so now could be controversial as well as seen as counter-productive?  Both because to 1904 Japan Imperial Russia is the big enemy and its good to see it divided and weak and because any major involvement in Russia would distract from China.  The more Machiavellian Japanese politicians and generals might consider the best option is similar to what their been told by their people in Poland, having the Bolsheviks win but a Japanese involvement to secure a Russian puppet state in eastern Siberia as a buffer zone.

  They would still have to be careful as technologically their a decade behind the rest of the world while with things going well for the allies Britain [especially] and France have more leeway to put pressure on Japan not to go too far in China, while the US will also be opposed.  OTL the Japanese had to back down from their 21 demands and if they try something like that here the same is likely to happen.  China is in greater turmoil with the empire having fallen and a lot of disorder but there's also going to be a strong reaction inside China, possibly leading to an earlier reunification or at least some alliance between some of the factions.  Not saying Japan making sizeable territorial conquests is impossible but they will face opposition.  Very likely to have domination over Manchuria, whether direct or via proxy and influence elsewhere but they can't go too far.

I don't know how far West they went but I read years ago the Japanese had Artillery units supporting Adm. Kolchak who was fighting in or just east of the Urals. So in a way the IJA may claim to have reached the Urals - if slightly exagerating!

The Poles will inform the Japanese in a way they choose to according to own needs..!

Don't have any specifics at the mo but they would very much like a second backing should things go awry in Europe. Also why they shared intelligence with the Finn's - more on that to come.

The Japanese isn't at the moment going adventuring across the Pacific so the Army have the upper hand with the IJN only being in a support role. And they do need to modernize.

[575]

The Kremlin, Moscow
Lenin looked around the assembled group among which were of course Stalin and Trotsky. As usual the meeting would begin with the events from around the Republics. Once this had finished Lenin looked around again before speaking without any addressee.

He referred to the German Imperial Government that had contacted him through the newly established legation at Helsinki during mid August.
All talk ended abruptly. The German IMPERIAL Government! But Germany is republic following the end of the War.
No Lenin had said – YOU are too preoccupied with the internal situation to consider the outside World.

Now Lenin again turned to the subject.

Once again Stalins gaze flickered around the peoples in the room. Trotsky sad quiet apparently looking at nothing. What the scum know – Stalin thought.

Trotsky looked up – Imperial Germany, we are not in the timespan we thought. It was a fact uttered not a question.

Stalins gaze flickered from Trotsky to Lenin and back.

Lenin smiled deviously – Stalin take command in Ukraine and rid us of the scum. Do find out what happened to the troops in Belarus that was fighting the Poles.

Then Lenin looked at Trotsky – so what have you for us then.

Well - Trotsky looked tired – the Imperials want to cooperate with us. Their house is trembling because of the Poles. The Poles are of the future, 1930. Travelling through Finland I heard of Japan – its of 1904. They were about to fight Imperial Russia and crossed the Korean border into Manchuria finding no Russians. The Finns know a lot but they aren't saying anything.

Lenin – the Finns, as always.

The only way to get real information is to listen to whats being said in the corners – Trotsky looked around – the Finns know.
Now the Imperial Germans are fighting the war they didn't want. The fools as we know them was fooled by the arrival of the Poles instead of Imperial Russia and ground into the dirt.
Now they are looking for allies to take the pressure off them. A-H are in better shape though they lost Galizia and their oil but they Poles don't want to fight them and A-H don't want to fight them either as they have their hands full with Serbia and are watching Italy. Doing rather well against Serbia Belgrades fallen and the Serb counterattack fended off.
The Imperial Germans have basically nothing to give in return of information. They lost 1/3 of their harvest – that in the East. The Poles are in control of 1/3 of Germany so they also lost a huge part of their possible manpower pool.
The Imperial Germans want grain – I didn't answer them though they understood that wasn't fortcoming. They know basically nothing of us except what the Baltic Germans have told them which of course is fraught with lies and disinformation.

Lenin looked around the group – Stalin keep pressure on the White's, Denikin and Yudenich are still in the field - get the new Red Guards to deal Yudenich a lesson and force him towards the borders of the Baltics who will disarm him.
Trotsky keep in touch with the Imperial Germans – don't promise anything but drag information out of them. They asked for it. Of course we want the Poles engaged but allying to the Imperials even if they are fighting the other bourgeois powers..
Stalin the Baltic Navy is in shambles get them to make a demonstration in the Baltic against the Germans – no attack but lets get a reaction!
Now regarding the Kulaks..

[stevep]

Nov 13, 2024 10:37:58 GMT 575 said:

The Kremlin, Moscow
Lenin looked around the assembled group among which were of course Stalin and Trotsky. As usual the meeting would begin with the events from around the Republics. Once this had finished Lenin looked around again before speaking without any addressee.

He referred to the German Imperial Government that had contacted him through the newly established legation at Helsinki during mid August.
All talk ended abruptly. The German IMPERIAL Government! But Germany is republic following the end of the War.
No Lenin had said – YOU are too preoccupied with the internal situation to consider the outside World.

Now Lenin again turned to the subject.

Once again Stalins gaze flickered around the peoples in the room. Trotsky sad quiet apparently looking at nothing. What the scum know – Stalin thought.

Trotsky looked up – Imperial Germany, we are not in the timespan we thought. It was a fact uttered not a question.

Stalins gaze flickered from Trotsky to Lenin and back.

Lenin smiled deviously – Stalin take command in Ukraine and rid us of the scum. Do find out what happened to the troops in Belarus that was fighting the Poles.

Then Lenin looked at Trotsky – so what have you for us then.

Well - Trotsky looked tired – the Imperials want to cooperate with us. Their house is trembling because of the Poles. The Poles are of the future, 1930. Travelling through Finland I heard of Japan – its of 1904. They were about to fight Imperial Russia and crossed the Korean border into Manchuria finding no Russians. The Finns know a lot but they aren't saying anything.

Lenin – the Finns, as always.

The only way to get real information is to listen to whats being said in the corners – Trotsky looked around – the Finns know.
Now the Imperial Germans are fighting the war they didn't want. The fools as we know them was fooled by the arrival of the Poles instead of Imperial Russia and ground into the dirt.
Now they are looking for allies to take the pressure off them. A-H are in better shape though they lost Galizia and their oil but they Poles don't want to fight them and A-H don't want to fight them either as they have their hands full with Serbia and are watching Italy. Doing rather well against Serbia Belgrades fallen and the Serb counterattack fended off.
The Imperial Germans have basically nothing to give in return of information. They lost 1/3 of their harvest – that in the East. The Poles are in control of 1/3 of Germany so they also lost a huge part of their possible manpower pool.
The Imperial Germans want grain – I didn't answer them though they understood that wasn't fortcoming. They know basically nothing of us except what the Baltic Germans have told them which of course is fraught with lies and disinformation.

Lenin looked around the group – Stalin keep pressure on the White's, Denikin and Yudenich are still in the field - get the new Red Guards to deal Yudenich a lesson and force him towards the borders of the Baltics who will disarm him.
Trotsky keep in touch with the Imperial Germans – don't promise anything but drag information out of them. They asked for it. Of course we want the Poles engaged but allying to the Imperials even if they are fighting the other bourgeois powers..
Stalin the Baltic Navy is in shambles get them to make a demonstration in the Baltic against the Germans – no attack but lets get a reaction!
Now regarding the Kulaks..

  It could sound like Stalin is being set up for a fall.  He's the one being prompted to take action in Ukraine and possibly also against the Polish military and the German navy, neither of which would be good for Bolshevik forces or his reputation.  Possibly Lenin has information from someone from Poland about what happens after he dies and doesn't like it. 

  Not sure given the state Russia is in during the civil war that it could export grain to Germany or anywhere else.

[575]

Nov 13, 2024 18:24:35 GMT stevep said:

Nov 13, 2024 10:37:58 GMT 575 said:

The Kremlin, Moscow
Lenin looked around the assembled group among which were of course Stalin and Trotsky. As usual the meeting would begin with the events from around the Republics. Once this had finished Lenin looked around again before speaking without any addressee.

He referred to the German Imperial Government that had contacted him through the newly established legation at Helsinki during mid August.
All talk ended abruptly. The German IMPERIAL Government! But Germany is republic following the end of the War.
No Lenin had said – YOU are too preoccupied with the internal situation to consider the outside World.

Now Lenin again turned to the subject.

Once again Stalins gaze flickered around the peoples in the room. Trotsky sad quiet apparently looking at nothing. What the scum know – Stalin thought.

Trotsky looked up – Imperial Germany, we are not in the timespan we thought. It was a fact uttered not a question.

Stalins gaze flickered from Trotsky to Lenin and back.

Lenin smiled deviously – Stalin take command in Ukraine and rid us of the scum. Do find out what happened to the troops in Belarus that was fighting the Poles.

Then Lenin looked at Trotsky – so what have you for us then.

Well - Trotsky looked tired – the Imperials want to cooperate with us. Their house is trembling because of the Poles. The Poles are of the future, 1930. Travelling through Finland I heard of Japan – its of 1904. They were about to fight Imperial Russia and crossed the Korean border into Manchuria finding no Russians. The Finns know a lot but they aren't saying anything.

Lenin – the Finns, as always.

The only way to get real information is to listen to whats being said in the corners – Trotsky looked around – the Finns know.
Now the Imperial Germans are fighting the war they didn't want. The fools as we know them was fooled by the arrival of the Poles instead of Imperial Russia and ground into the dirt.
Now they are looking for allies to take the pressure off them. A-H are in better shape though they lost Galizia and their oil but they Poles don't want to fight them and A-H don't want to fight them either as they have their hands full with Serbia and are watching Italy. Doing rather well against Serbia Belgrades fallen and the Serb counterattack fended off.
The Imperial Germans have basically nothing to give in return of information. They lost 1/3 of their harvest – that in the East. The Poles are in control of 1/3 of Germany so they also lost a huge part of their possible manpower pool.
The Imperial Germans want grain – I didn't answer them though they understood that wasn't fortcoming. They know basically nothing of us except what the Baltic Germans have told them which of course is fraught with lies and disinformation.

Lenin looked around the group – Stalin keep pressure on the White's, Denikin and Yudenich are still in the field - get the new Red Guards to deal Yudenich a lesson and force him towards the borders of the Baltics who will disarm him.
Trotsky keep in touch with the Imperial Germans – don't promise anything but drag information out of them. They asked for it. Of course we want the Poles engaged but allying to the Imperials even if they are fighting the other bourgeois powers..
Stalin the Baltic Navy is in shambles get them to make a demonstration in the Baltic against the Germans – no attack but lets get a reaction!
Now regarding the Kulaks..

  It could sound like Stalin is being set up for a fall.  He's the one being prompted to take action in Ukraine and possibly also against the Polish military and the German navy, neither of which would be good for Bolshevik forces or his reputation.  Possibly Lenin has information from someone from Poland about what happens after he dies and doesn't like it. 

  Not sure given the state Russia is in during the civil war that it could export grain to Germany or anywhere else.

I'm not really firm on treatment of the Bolchevic's yet and want to hold that door open - OTOH I felt I had to visit it.

As I understand the transportation system was in bad shape - and continued into the future part of the reason why foodshortages were so frequent in the USSR - and the Kulaks weren't wanting to supply the starving citizens hence the resultant later next year war on Kulaks. So no grain exports for Imperial Germany.

[575]

The Baltics and Scandinavians
The Finns knew what was going on due to their intelligence contacts with the Poles and that Poland was in contact with the Japanese.
The Finns had been allowed to disclose snippets of their knowledge about Poland to the Scandinavians who had become uneasy about where the war between the Entente and Poland against Germany and A-H mainly due to the German Navy ruling the Baltic and blockading the Polish coast which had been enlarged almost eight times since the outbreak of war.

Basically the Germans still ruled the Baltic but the enlarge coastline had made the Poles able to build up their Navy which due to the Polish control of the air forced the Germans out to sea as those big Torpedobombers would still be seen from time to time and the smaller Polish aircraft would bomb if given the chance.

Due to the shorter days it had become easier to go to Königsberg but the Poles had sensed a possibility in forcing the 8. Army back to the city by occupying Samland Peninsular (Kalinindragsky Peninsula in map ^) to the west of the city and also the Frisches Haff leaving only the narrow gap at Pillau city to navigate through at night. Which had also become difficult as the Poles had emplaced artillery both at Samland and Frisches Haff to cover the Pillau gap which the heavier German units had to engage when ships would go into Königsberg port.
The Poles even tried making night into day by lighting up huge spotlights on the shore aimed at the German ships for the artillery spotters to hit.

As the main part of the German Navy had to be kept at Jade Bay in Ostfriesland as a fleet in being and also played their own games with the RN little reinforcements for the Navy arrived. Having to detach port crews for emergency field units to cover the long front line in the east only served to make things more difficult though the Navy kept its optimism.

All this activity made Scandinavian naval traffic difficult as the German Navy also kept an eye on that to deter landings in Polish port though they had realized that the Baltics were secretly cooperating with the Danes who had a small volunteer unit in Estonia and Latvia and Finland which had a Jäger Battalion there too where most needed to deter the Soviets.
Even that had changed as the Soviets had realized as they had stopped General Yudenich from entering St. Petersburg and begun forcing his Army west towards the Estonian border that barring them getting interned in the Baltics was a bad outcome and had offered a quite reasonable peace treaty with all three in return of no White forces being allowed to cross their borders unless totally disarmed.
Doing a very discreet approach to Warsaw Marshall Pilsudski had urged them on as it would also be a way to get neutral territory in the Baltic which could recieve neutral – Scandinavian – shipping with goods for Poland besides grain and other agricultural produce for the Baltics from Denmark, iron and copper ore from Sweden, timbers and other metal ore from Norway along frozen fish.

Everybody except the Germans had a very happy ending of October 1914/19/30.
The German Navy even suggested blockading all shipping into the Baltics but this was being overruled by the General Staff. The Swedish and Danish Navies might not be big but together those could make problems forcing the Navy to draw upon the North Sea Fleet which was finding operations even more difficult as the RN seemed to having a Crystal Ball with regard to movements of the North Sea Fleet.
The major surface units of the Swedes and Danes wasn't the problem as these were outgunned by the pre-Dreadnoughts of the German Baltic Fleet but it was their Torpedoboats and Submarines combined four times those of the German B F that worried the German Navy.

[stevep]

Nov 15, 2024 19:43:32 GMT 575 said:

The Baltics and Scandinavians
The Finns knew what was going on due to their intelligence contacts with the Poles and that Poland was in contact with the Japanese.
The Finns had been allowed to disclose snippets of their knowledge about Poland to the Scandinavians who had become uneasy about where the war between the Entente and Poland against Germany and A-H mainly due to the German Navy ruling the Baltic and blockading the Polish coast which had been enlarged almost eight times since the outbreak of war.

Basically the Germans still ruled the Baltic but the enlarge coastline had made the Poles able to build up their Navy which due to the Polish control of the air forced the Germans out to sea as those big Torpedobombers would still be seen from time to time and the smaller Polish aircraft would bomb if given the chance.

Due to the shorter days it had become easier to go to Königsberg but the Poles had sensed a possibility in forcing the 8. Army back to the city by occupying Samland Peninsular (Kalinindragsky Peninsula in map ^) to the west of the city and also the Frisches Haff leaving only the narrow gap at Pillau city to navigate through at night. Which had also become difficult as the Poles had emplaced artillery both at Samland and Frisches Haff to cover the Pillau gap which the heavier German units had to engage when ships would go into Königsberg port.
The Poles even tried making night into day by lighting up huge spotlights on the shore aimed at the German ships for the artillery spotters to hit.

As the main part of the German Navy had to be kept at Jade Bay in Ostfriesland as a fleet in being and also played their own games with the RN little reinforcements for the Navy arrived. Having to detach port crews for emergency field units to cover the long front line in the east only served to make things more difficult though the Navy kept its optimism.

All this activity made Scandinavian naval traffic difficult as the German Navy also kept an eye on that to deter landings in Polish port though they had realized that the Baltics were secretly cooperating with the Danes who had a small volunteer unit in Estonia and Latvia and Finland which had a Jäger Battalion there too where most needed to deter the Soviets.
Even that had changed as the Soviets had realized as they had stopped General Yudenich from entering St. Petersburg and begun forcing his Army west towards the Estonian border that barring them getting interned in the Baltics was a bad outcome and had offered a quite reasonable peace treaty with all three in return of no White forces being allowed to cross their borders unless totally disarmed.
Doing a very discreet approach to Warsaw Marshall Pilsudski had urged them on as it would also be a way to get neutral territory in the Baltic which could recieve neutral – Scandinavian – shipping with goods for Poland besides grain and other agricultural produce for the Baltics from Denmark, iron and copper ore from Sweden, timbers and other metal ore from Norway along frozen fish.

Everybody except the Germans had a very happy ending of October 1914/19/30.
The German Navy even suggested blockading all shipping into the Baltics but this was being overruled by the General Staff. The Swedish and Danish Navies might not be big but together those could make problems forcing the Navy to draw upon the North Sea Fleet which was finding operations even more difficult as the RN seemed to having a Crystal Ball with regard to movements of the North Sea Fleet.
The major surface units of the Swedes and Danes wasn't the problem as these were outgunned by the pre-Dreadnoughts of the German Baltic Fleet but it was their Torpedoboats and Submarines combined four times those of the German B F that worried the German Navy.

  I would say the big issue with going to war with Denmark and Sweden, which is what would probably result from Germany trying to blockade all shipping is that they would need to occupy at least some of Denmark to prevent the allies landing forces, or opening up the Baltic to allied shipping.  Plus they would lose a lot of trade from those neutral powers, which is something that would be a big self-inflicting wound and in their current state would be a big problem.  Not to mention there is the certainty that Sweden and Denmark would seek to co-operate with Poland.

  So the Bolsheviks have effectively recognised the independence of the three Baltic states in return for insisting on the disarming of Yudenich's force?  That makes sense for both sides.

[575]

Nov 15, 2024 20:39:34 GMT stevep said:

Nov 15, 2024 19:43:32 GMT 575 said:

The Baltics and Scandinavians
The Finns knew what was going on due to their intelligence contacts with the Poles and that Poland was in contact with the Japanese.
The Finns had been allowed to disclose snippets of their knowledge about Poland to the Scandinavians who had become uneasy about where the war between the Entente and Poland against Germany and A-H mainly due to the German Navy ruling the Baltic and blockading the Polish coast which had been enlarged almost eight times since the outbreak of war.

Basically the Germans still ruled the Baltic but the enlarge coastline had made the Poles able to build up their Navy which due to the Polish control of the air forced the Germans out to sea as those big Torpedobombers would still be seen from time to time and the smaller Polish aircraft would bomb if given the chance.

Due to the shorter days it had become easier to go to Königsberg but the Poles had sensed a possibility in forcing the 8. Army back to the city by occupying Samland Peninsular (Kalinindragsky Peninsula in map ^) to the west of the city and also the Frisches Haff leaving only the narrow gap at Pillau city to navigate through at night. Which had also become difficult as the Poles had emplaced artillery both at Samland and Frisches Haff to cover the Pillau gap which the heavier German units had to engage when ships would go into Königsberg port.
The Poles even tried making night into day by lighting up huge spotlights on the shore aimed at the German ships for the artillery spotters to hit.

As the main part of the German Navy had to be kept at Jade Bay in Ostfriesland as a fleet in being and also played their own games with the RN little reinforcements for the Navy arrived. Having to detach port crews for emergency field units to cover the long front line in the east only served to make things more difficult though the Navy kept its optimism.

All this activity made Scandinavian naval traffic difficult as the German Navy also kept an eye on that to deter landings in Polish port though they had realized that the Baltics were secretly cooperating with the Danes who had a small volunteer unit in Estonia and Latvia and Finland which had a Jäger Battalion there too where most needed to deter the Soviets.
Even that had changed as the Soviets had realized as they had stopped General Yudenich from entering St. Petersburg and begun forcing his Army west towards the Estonian border that barring them getting interned in the Baltics was a bad outcome and had offered a quite reasonable peace treaty with all three in return of no White forces being allowed to cross their borders unless totally disarmed.
Doing a very discreet approach to Warsaw Marshall Pilsudski had urged them on as it would also be a way to get neutral territory in the Baltic which could recieve neutral – Scandinavian – shipping with goods for Poland besides grain and other agricultural produce for the Baltics from Denmark, iron and copper ore from Sweden, timbers and other metal ore from Norway along frozen fish.

Everybody except the Germans had a very happy ending of October 1914/19/30.
The German Navy even suggested blockading all shipping into the Baltics but this was being overruled by the General Staff. The Swedish and Danish Navies might not be big but together those could make problems forcing the Navy to draw upon the North Sea Fleet which was finding operations even more difficult as the RN seemed to having a Crystal Ball with regard to movements of the North Sea Fleet.
The major surface units of the Swedes and Danes wasn't the problem as these were outgunned by the pre-Dreadnoughts of the German Baltic Fleet but it was their Torpedoboats and Submarines combined four times those of the German B F that worried the German Navy.

  I would say the big issue with going to war with Denmark and Sweden, which is what would probably result from Germany trying to blockade all shipping is that they would need to occupy at least some of Denmark to prevent the allies landing forces, or opening up the Baltic to allied shipping.  Plus they would lose a lot of trade from those neutral powers, which is something that would be a big self-inflicting wound and in their current state would be a big problem.  Not to mention there is the certainty that Sweden and Denmark would seek to co-operate with Poland.

  So the Bolsheviks have effectively recognised the independence of the three Baltic states in return for insisting on the disarming of Yudenich's force?  That makes sense for both sides.

Denmark delivers a lot of agricultural produce and horses - Sweden is in on iron ore of course though as long as Germany hold on to A-L they'll manage. Trade is the key at the moment.

It's only ponderings on the German Naval staff however.

Bolsheviks is as pragmatic here as in OTL when it suits them.