4 August 1914 - Poland of July 1930, Russia of June 1919 and Imperial Japan of 8 February 1905 ISOT

[575]

Oct 30, 2024 22:54:45 GMT stevep said:

Oct 30, 2024 20:12:36 GMT 575 said:

Frankfurt a.d. Oder battle 22 August
The commander of the two German corps marching north of the Spree River towards FadO too late realized that his line of communications had been severed by Polish troops in the rear.
As the march slowed he was hit by the Polish Tank Regiment supporting three Polish Infantry Divisions on the attack with reconnaisance bombers ruling the skies and delivering information on the German whereabouts during the battle.

Another Infantry Division and a Cavalry Brigade had moved south from FadO to the Oder-Spree canal and along this to deny the Germans retreat across that and the Spree.
Being hit by the Poles on the march put the Germans in the worst position with Tanks and Cavalry pressing on the flanks and Infantry supported by Artillery and Bombers hitting the front.

Most German units managed to preserve cohesion – for some hours before the position in the open turned indefensible – you'd either dig a foxhole or fire the rifle - and the commander decided to pull back only having his troops run into the Polish blocking force which turned the retreat into a rout.

  Ouch this is really turning into a disaster for the Germans.  Their covering force for the east is being dismantled pretty rapidly and effectively while the withdrawals from the western offensive is probably causing increasing issues for that.  How much more can they afford to pull east and what sort of other reserves could they manage to draw together to try and fill in the gaps.  Sounds like it would be a desperate situation.

Exactly why I chose this moment to ISOT Poland back in time. Besides relying on 8. Army in East Prussia Imperial Germany hadn't secured its borders with Russia besides the odd Reserves/Landwehr units.

Hybris in its utmost form relying on assumption that your opponent is mobilizing so slow that you can defeat your other enemy in the West and then turn East relying on your ally to guard the East and STILL not set up even a central reserve to rail in should events force it. That 9. Reserve Corps and large Landwehr formation sitting in Schleswig-Holstein waiting for a British invasion on the most unsuited beach would have been better employed as the Central Reserve in say Magdeburg with all the heavy stuff loaded on flatwaggons ready to roll would have been a more sane decision..

[575]

Berlin 25 August
The German General Staff were puzzled as to the stop of the Poles at the eastern suburbs of Berlin pursuing the routed West Front reinforcements.
Only the moving around the city both north and south had it realize that the Poles didn't want to fight in the city but keeping it as an enclosed area the Germans would HAVE to fight for; all while the city public operations would slowly breakdown.

The ring had been closing for the last two days and now only the railway west from Spandau towards the Elbe was open for traffic.

The Emperor was adviced to leave the Capital.
Initially William had a fit and then declared his willingness ”to die in my nest along my brave Berliners” (to quote Danish King Frederik 3 1658 when besieged by Sweden) to which his wife called him to his senses and ushered him aboard the train.
The last Army units and General Staff left the city following the Emperor and it was declared an open city; the Poles ignored that message – they had seen too much fighting in the East a decade ago to take the wellbeing of millions of Berliners unto themselves!

That decision shocked the Germans.

(Besically I think Pilsudski would have loved entering Berlin on horseback leading his troops but it would be utter stupidity)

[stevep]

Oct 31, 2024 8:47:58 GMT 575 said:

Berlin 25 August
The German General Staff were puzzled as to the stop of the Poles at the eastern suburbs of Berlin pursuing the routed West Front reinforcements.
Only the moving around the city both north and south had it realize that the Poles didn't want to fight in the city but keeping it as an enclosed area the Germans would HAVE to fight for; all while the city public operations would slowly breakdown.

The ring had been closing for the last two days and now only the railway west from Spandau towards the Elbe was open for traffic.

The Emperor was adviced to leave the Capital.
Initially William had a fit and then declared his willingness ”to die in my nest along my brave Berliners” (to quote Danish King Frederik 3 1658 when besieged by Sweden) to which his wife called him to his senses and ushered him aboard the train.
The last Army units and General Staff left the city following the Emperor and it was declared an open city; the Poles ignored that message – they had seen too much fighting in the East a decade ago to take the wellbeing of millions of Berliners unto themselves!

That decision shocked the Germans.

(Besically I think Pilsudski would have loved entering Berlin on horseback leading his troops but it would be utter stupidity)

  Just to clarify please are the Poles encircling but not occupying the city or leaving a route to the west, although possibly one under artillery as well as air attack open?  Rather suspect you mean the latter as an encircled city could simply surrender.

  Its still going to hurt the German economy as so many other rail routes passing through Berlin will be cut.  Plus the Germans are still responsible for services inside the city and maintaining the population there.  Probably going to be other people seeking to flee when they can for fear of either being occupied or simply the problems that partial encirclement and limited supplies to the city will cause.

  Plus either way its a blow to German morale and also the position of the Kaiser as head of state would be weakened.

[575]

Oct 31, 2024 16:14:48 GMT stevep said:

Oct 31, 2024 8:47:58 GMT 575 said:

Berlin 25 August
The German General Staff were puzzled as to the stop of the Poles at the eastern suburbs of Berlin pursuing the routed West Front reinforcements.
Only the moving around the city both north and south had it realize that the Poles didn't want to fight in the city but keeping it as an enclosed area the Germans would HAVE to fight for; all while the city public operations would slowly breakdown.

The ring had been closing for the last two days and now only the railway west from Spandau towards the Elbe was open for traffic.

The Emperor was adviced to leave the Capital.
Initially William had a fit and then declared his willingness ”to die in my nest along my brave Berliners” (to quote Danish King Frederik 3 1658 when besieged by Sweden) to which his wife called him to his senses and ushered him aboard the train.
The last Army units and General Staff left the city following the Emperor and it was declared an open city; the Poles ignored that message – they had seen too much fighting in the East a decade ago to take the wellbeing of millions of Berliners unto themselves!

That decision shocked the Germans.

(Besically I think Pilsudski would have loved entering Berlin on horseback leading his troops but it would be utter stupidity)

  Just to clarify please are the Poles encircling but not occupying the city or leaving a route to the west, although possibly one under artillery as well as air attack open?  Rather suspect you mean the latter as an encircled city could simply surrender.

  Its still going to hurt the German economy as so many other rail routes passing through Berlin will be cut.  Plus the Germans are still responsible for services inside the city and maintaining the population there.  Probably going to be other people seeking to flee when they can for fear of either being occupied or simply the problems that partial encirclement and limited supplies to the city will cause.

  Plus either way its a blow to German morale and also the position of the Kaiser as head of state would be weakened.

The Poles have just bypassed the city and closed the ring as they are moving for a defensive line on the Elbe River. The Germans may surrender the city to the Poles but the Poles don't want to fight their way into it even if only few German troops may remain there.

Regarding city-fight I don't think it was seen as an option to utilize cities for defence - those in WWI in northeastern France had been subjected to heavy bombardment but I don't recall any WWII like cityfight such as Stalingrad. Though perhaps Riga 1917 and other cities that were fortified but nothing like Stalingrad.

The general preference as Schlieffen saw it was to meet your opponent in the countryside and defeat him in battle. The focus on cities seems a post-WWI operational idea.

[575]

And now for something completely different - the status at the end of August 1914:


End August

Berlin
In the days to follow thousends of Berliners made their way West - ”go west young man” the Poles had said if asked about adding to the rations effected by the city council. Factories not producing making all the workers just sit at home or on café's discussing what to do.
These would be allowed by the Poles to go through the frontline to the German lines – anything to weaken the German war effort such as an accumulating number of mouths to feed.

There had been the most strange strike during the week – workers wanted work to be able to get paid. The Poles had laughed solidly – William had looked on in disbelief from Frankfurt am Main.
There had also been a clash of War supporters and mainly Socialdemocrats rejecting War – it ended up in a day of heavy streetfighting before the Police had regained control; asking the Poles of assistance was met with a ”why its YOUR job!”

What appalled the almost 4 million Berliners (most originating in East Prussia) was the move of all Polish and other slav-speakers as well as Entente and other nationals who wanted it out of the city to Poland. A move that earned the Poles much goodwill in particularly Britain.

Japan
Japan had informed their British ally that they were still building up the force to move on Tsingtao. They had also taken possession of Port Arthur and was re-fortifying the area.
Not informed was that the Poles had contacted the Japanese and informed of the possible situation in Russian Far East – Vladivostok might well up for grabs!

The IJN had reconnoitered Vladivostok and send ashore a landing party finding a lot of confusion and some large stores of 1919 Japanese ammunition and other supplies for 70,000 Japanese troops deployed into Sibiria.
THAT had prompted a swift shipping of a couple of Divisions into the city to secure the stocks and stop the looting that had been going on. The crackdown on looters had been prompt and brutal and stores were soon refilled with what could be repossesed.
Admiral Kolchak had complained of the loss of his Japanese gunners but informed that no replacements would be forthcoming at the present but that he of course couldn't be barred from using the guns and ammo himself.

Germany
The German advance in the West had been checked by the French and British due to more troops being ordered east to stop the Polish tsunami following the defeat east of Berlin – the already entraining 2 Corps were deemed insufficient to the General Staff to stop the Poles so more Corps were ordered East.
As the commanders of the Right Wing – 1., 2. and 3. Army rejected sending more troops east thus missing the opportunity of bagging the French Armies this then had the mainly Royal commanders of 4., 5. and 6. Armies – the Duke of Württemberg, the Imperial Crown Prince and the Crown Prince of Bavaria as well as the commander of 7. Army obey orders.

The Royals looking to the future of their lineages and not victory over France and thus obediently began entraining more troops for the East to stop the Poles and lift the siege of the Capital and regain East Prussia. That the state governments of Württemberg Saxony and Bavaria were questioning the proceeding of war in light of the recent events in the east hardly mattered to them though it did matter to Goverment that would remember this.
This pulling Corps out of the Ardennes and the border area weakened the Germans seriously and was an opportunity the French took advantage of.

In the East things looked gloomy – East Prussia had been overrun by the Poles and the 8. Army dug in outside Königsberg. Still it was supplied mainly during night hours by ship.
In Silesia Breslau had been isolated by Polish troops and the mines and industry had stopped working.
German troops had been moved through Bohemia to western Silesia with A-H consent so as not to desert Germany totally.
However this move was somewhat a moot operation as the Polish had reinforced that sector and was driving west north of the Riesengebirge towards Dresden and the Elbe as part of isolating Berlin and getting a strong defensive position against the expected German counter attack – should it materialize.

The 9. Reserve Corps in Pommerania being at the Oder guarding the northern part of that river then other mainly Landwehr Brigades and Naval Emergency Fieldunits held the Mecklenburg lakeland.
On the Elbe the other West Front reinforcements were being deployed facing the Poles on the far bank.

Berlin had been surrounded by Polish troops that was on the Elbe all the way from Bohemia up to the Mecklenburg lakeland.
Emperor William II had fled the capital for Frankfurt.
The German General Staff had also left for Frankfurt realizing the Poles didn't want a large city-fight preferring to starve the German capital into surrender as was the case of Breslau.
Life in the city was difficult for the inhabitants which had seen an influx of refugees in the preceeding weeks – not many but without any logistics providing basics such as flour for breadbaking and fuel to heath the ovens as well as milk and potatoes the rationed provisions soon wore down. With water only obtained from rivers and lakes an epidemic would loome at any time which German doctors in the city told the Poles who shrugged their shoulders. The doctors then told the German government in Frankfurt who told the Emperor who raged and promised to avenge his losses.
The Polish didn't want to feed several million Germans and made that clear to both Entente Powers and these informed the German negotiaters.

The German Government had asked the French and British of a ceasefire on the Western Front on status quo; the British seeing their Army dwindling had been ready to talk if the Germans would evacuate Belgium but the French sensing a German breakdown and having pushed the Germans back from Paris and still pushing had rejected such.
A-L seemed within reach if only the pressure could be kept up.
Besides both Entente powers didn't want to abandon the Poles who had made the Germans come to the negotiating table and new representatives was sent to Warsaw to talk alliance.

Others
The Belgian Field Army was still holding Antwerp where what amounted to a reinforced British Naval Division had been landed there to aid their defences.

A-H had been able to keep the Serbians south of the Danube and advancing through Slavonia north and south of the Sava towards Belgrade. The troops of 2. Army had been a much needed reinforcement of the Armies fighting the Serbs.
The Poles had realized the plights of their southslav brothers and given the Serbs info on the situation outside their borders – the disappearance of their main benefactor and the reinforced A-H armies on their borders.

Italy was frustrated at being offered by Germany anything it could capture of France and no offers from the Entante of alliance.

Entente Navy units were operating in the southern Adriatic bombarding A-H ports on the coast to secure shipping of war materiel bound for Serbia into Montenegro.
The other entry port for supplying Serbia Thessaloniki of Greece had seen a French – British shore unit land to coordinate moving supplies landed off by train to Serbia.
A French – RN Squadron was operating in the Aegean Sea to deter possible Ottoman Navy adventures. Goeben and Breslau were lying idle in port at Scutari.

In Russia the White Armies were going ahead on the Soviets; the loss of the Soviet Army in Poland had been effectively countered by the now firm Polish eastern border. The Soviet armies were operating east of these anyway and as long as the Poles were occupied defeating Germany all the better.

[stevep]

   Well that sounds pretty desperate for the Germans. A lot could still go wrong but the Poles are really tearing their forces apart in the east.  Its also thrown the attack in the west into increasing doubt.  That the German army has maintained as much as it could of the right hook through Belgium might be a good move if it worked in terms of knocking France out but history suggests that they will fail and probably worse than OTL.  The only possibly good side for the Germans would be if the French continued attacking in AL but I doubt that will happen. 

  With the loss of much of eastern Germany and heavy losses in the west, plus a possible serious defeat that I think will look more and more likely.  OTL the 1st Battle of the Marne was in early Sept 6th-12th according to wiki so have to see how that goes.

  Not surprised that France rejected German plans for a cease fire given the current position and rather surprised that Britain considered it if the Germans withdrew from occupied Belgium.  However glad to hear they seem to have rejected that and are looking for a full alliance with Poland.

  I thought that an open city was one where no opposition was offered to an advancing army and hence that the Poles could just march in and occupy it without any resistance but quite possibly have that wrong.

  Think the Serbs can hold for quite a while, especially since the allies seem to have moved faster to organise a supply route through N Greece than OTL.  Could be that with Germany and Austria in disorder the monarchy in Greece feels less likely to oppose such a move.

  Assume that the two German ships have been 'transferred' to the Ottoman navy as OTL.  Although with no clear Russian state and I suspect that the Turks are unlikely to be too friendly to a communist regime that has overthrown an empire - in those conditions anyway - and I suspect the German naval officers would think likewise.  Plus the white generals in Ukraine region aren't formal allies of the entente so attacks on the whites in the Black Sea would seem to be less attractive to them.

  In the Pacific do we know what's happened to the German Far East squadron?  With a much weaker Japan that hasn't yet moved against the German base in N China has it stayed in its base or is it out raiding as OTL?  I would say that their out raiding as I think that was the plan OTL.  OTL the Japanese had also started to move against German possessions in the northern Pacific, which in turn prompted the Australians and New Zealanders to seek to secure the southern German possessions further south.  OTL the Japanese, with a much weaker, pre-dreadnought fleet might be more cautious about this and similarly that could mean the British dominions haven't moved against German colonies yet.

  Anyway very interesting and looking good for the allies at the moment.

[575]

Oct 31, 2024 22:55:22 GMT stevep said:

   Well that sounds pretty desperate for the Germans. A lot could still go wrong but the Poles are really tearing their forces apart in the east.  Its also thrown the attack in the west into increasing doubt.  That the German army has maintained as much as it could of the right hook through Belgium might be a good move if it worked in terms of knocking France out but history suggests that they will fail and probably worse than OTL.  The only possibly good side for the Germans would be if the French continued attacking in AL but I doubt that will happen. 

  With the loss of much of eastern Germany and heavy losses in the west, plus a possible serious defeat that I think will look more and more likely.  OTL the 1st Battle of the Marne was in early Sept 6th-12th according to wiki so have to see how that goes.

  Not surprised that France rejected German plans for a cease fire given the current position and rather surprised that Britain considered it if the Germans withdrew from occupied Belgium.  However glad to hear they seem to have rejected that and are looking for a full alliance with Poland.

  I thought that an open city was one where no opposition was offered to an advancing army and hence that the Poles could just march in and occupy it without any resistance but quite possibly have that wrong.

  Think the Serbs can hold for quite a while, especially since the allies seem to have moved faster to organise a supply route through N Greece than OTL.  Could be that with Germany and Austria in disorder the monarchy in Greece feels less likely to oppose such a move.

  Assume that the two German ships have been 'transferred' to the Ottoman navy as OTL.  Although with no clear Russian state and I suspect that the Turks are unlikely to be too friendly to a communist regime that has overthrown an empire - in those conditions anyway - and I suspect the German naval officers would think likewise.  Plus the white generals in Ukraine region aren't formal allies of the entente so attacks on the whites in the Black Sea would seem to be less attractive to them.

  In the Pacific do we know what's happened to the German Far East squadron?  With a much weaker Japan that hasn't yet moved against the German base in N China has it stayed in its base or is it out raiding as OTL?  I would say that their out raiding as I think that was the plan OTL.  OTL the Japanese had also started to move against German possessions in the northern Pacific, which in turn prompted the Australians and New Zealanders to seek to secure the southern German possessions further south.  OTL the Japanese, with a much weaker, pre-dreadnought fleet might be more cautious about this and similarly that could mean the British dominions haven't moved against German colonies yet.

  Anyway very interesting and looking good for the allies at the moment.

Thanks for your input - the German right wing is still moving west but east of Paris as OTL as I don't see those general diverting from plan - their plan. That will still force the French to move forces north from the border with Germany giving the other German armies that is senting troops east a breathing space. I'd still expect the Germans to be hit hard by the French and British in 1st Marne and then retreat though how far is the question.

An open city is one you leave to the mercy of your opponent hoping for the best for the populace - the knack here is Pilsudski don't want to take responsibility for Germans especially Prussians who was part of the engineering of a divide Poland! So rather stay off the premises let the Germans sort it out themselves - which will have to be soon with little supply coming to the city.

My premise is that Goeben and Breslau have been transferred to the Ottoman Navy though what to do with them now with news from Europe and certainly so from the 1930's Turk Ambassador to Poland (you didn't overlook that - did you ?).

No the German Navy officers nor the German military mission in Ottoman Empire have little urge in fighting the White Russian Armies - the Soviets on the other hand might be fair game.

The Japanese have been preoccupied with reasserting themselves in their 1914 parts of Manchuria and Vladivostok and surrounds. There's a delightfull lot of military stocks burgling russians to punish to kill Germans at the moment. Also they don't have the spoils of the 1904 war so less of a Navy then OTL.

Certainly I'd expect v. Spee to gather his Far East Squadron to wreck havoc on British and French possessions in the Pacific - should have a read-up on that.

[stevep]

Nov 1, 2024 0:00:41 GMT 575 said:

Oct 31, 2024 22:55:22 GMT stevep said:

   Well that sounds pretty desperate for the Germans. A lot could still go wrong but the Poles are really tearing their forces apart in the east.  Its also thrown the attack in the west into increasing doubt.  That the German army has maintained as much as it could of the right hook through Belgium might be a good move if it worked in terms of knocking France out but history suggests that they will fail and probably worse than OTL.  The only possibly good side for the Germans would be if the French continued attacking in AL but I doubt that will happen. 

  With the loss of much of eastern Germany and heavy losses in the west, plus a possible serious defeat that I think will look more and more likely.  OTL the 1st Battle of the Marne was in early Sept 6th-12th according to wiki so have to see how that goes.

  Not surprised that France rejected German plans for a cease fire given the current position and rather surprised that Britain considered it if the Germans withdrew from occupied Belgium.  However glad to hear they seem to have rejected that and are looking for a full alliance with Poland.

  I thought that an open city was one where no opposition was offered to an advancing army and hence that the Poles could just march in and occupy it without any resistance but quite possibly have that wrong.

  Think the Serbs can hold for quite a while, especially since the allies seem to have moved faster to organise a supply route through N Greece than OTL.  Could be that with Germany and Austria in disorder the monarchy in Greece feels less likely to oppose such a move.

  Assume that the two German ships have been 'transferred' to the Ottoman navy as OTL.  Although with no clear Russian state and I suspect that the Turks are unlikely to be too friendly to a communist regime that has overthrown an empire - in those conditions anyway - and I suspect the German naval officers would think likewise.  Plus the white generals in Ukraine region aren't formal allies of the entente so attacks on the whites in the Black Sea would seem to be less attractive to them.

  In the Pacific do we know what's happened to the German Far East squadron?  With a much weaker Japan that hasn't yet moved against the German base in N China has it stayed in its base or is it out raiding as OTL?  I would say that their out raiding as I think that was the plan OTL.  OTL the Japanese had also started to move against German possessions in the northern Pacific, which in turn prompted the Australians and New Zealanders to seek to secure the southern German possessions further south.  OTL the Japanese, with a much weaker, pre-dreadnought fleet might be more cautious about this and similarly that could mean the British dominions haven't moved against German colonies yet.

  Anyway very interesting and looking good for the allies at the moment.

Thanks for your input - the German right wing is still moving west but east of Paris as OTL as I don't see those general diverting from plan - their plan. That will still force the French to move forces north from the border with Germany giving the other German armies that is senting troops east a breathing space. I'd still expect the Germans to be hit hard by the French and British in 1st Marne and then retreat though how far is the question.

An open city is one you leave to the mercy of your opponent hoping for the best for the populace - the knack here is Pilsudski don't want to take responsibility for Germans especially Prussians who was part of the engineering of a divide Poland! So rather stay off the premises let the Germans sort it out themselves - which will have to be soon with little supply coming to the city.

My premise is that Goeben and Breslau have been transferred to the Ottoman Navy though what to do with them now with news from Europe and certainly so from the 1930's Turk Ambassador to Poland (you didn't overlook that - did you ?).

No the German Navy officers nor the German military mission in Ottoman Empire have little urge in fighting the White Russian Armies - the Soviets on the other hand might be fair game.

The Japanese have been preoccupied with reasserting themselves in their 1914 parts of Manchuria and Vladivostok and surrounds. There's a delightfull lot of military stocks burgling russians to punish to kill Germans at the moment. Also they don't have the spoils of the 1904 war so less of a Navy then OTL.

Certainly I'd expect v. Spee to gather his Far East Squadron to wreck havoc on British and French possessions in the Pacific - should have a read-up on that.

a)  So Berlin isn't or can't simply be surrendered to the Poles.  That does sound a loop-hole if it means they don't have to supply food and other requirements but can cut off such supplies from outside as you could force mass suffering and deaths if you so desired.

b)  I can't remember it specifically but would expect the Turkish ambassador to have contacted the 1914 government.  However I think even the changes between 1914 and 1919 [Ottoman and Russian empires] is going to cause big concerns about what to do.  The dramatic successes this new Polish state is having would also have an impact here while as you say the ambassador would probably be warning them both to respect the Poles and avoid war with the entente.

c)  That might not go down well with their new owners as while they might not like the communists they are bitterly opposed to the revival of Russian imperial power.

d)  True that would be the Japanese priority.

e)  Hopefully we can avoid the Coronel disaster but have to see.

[575]

Nov 1, 2024 10:50:46 GMT stevep said:

Nov 1, 2024 0:00:41 GMT 575 said:

Thanks for your input - the German right wing is still moving west but east of Paris as OTL as I don't see those general diverting from plan - their plan. That will still force the French to move forces north from the border with Germany giving the other German armies that is senting troops east a breathing space. I'd still expect the Germans to be hit hard by the French and British in 1st Marne and then retreat though how far is the question.

An open city is one you leave to the mercy of your opponent hoping for the best for the populace - the knack here is Pilsudski don't want to take responsibility for Germans especially Prussians who was part of the engineering of a divide Poland! So rather stay off the premises let the Germans sort it out themselves - which will have to be soon with little supply coming to the city.

My premise is that Goeben and Breslau have been transferred to the Ottoman Navy though what to do with them now with news from Europe and certainly so from the 1930's Turk Ambassador to Poland (you didn't overlook that - did you ?).

No the German Navy officers nor the German military mission in Ottoman Empire have little urge in fighting the White Russian Armies - the Soviets on the other hand might be fair game.

The Japanese have been preoccupied with reasserting themselves in their 1914 parts of Manchuria and Vladivostok and surrounds. There's a delightfull lot of military stocks burgling russians to punish to kill Germans at the moment. Also they don't have the spoils of the 1904 war so less of a Navy then OTL.

Certainly I'd expect v. Spee to gather his Far East Squadron to wreck havoc on British and French possessions in the Pacific - should have a read-up on that.

a)  So Berlin isn't or can't simply be surrendered to the Poles.  That does sound a loop-hole if it means they don't have to supply food and other requirements but can cut off such supplies from outside as you could force mass suffering and deaths if you so desired.

b)  I can't remember it specifically but would expect the Turkish ambassador to have contacted the 1914 government.  However I think even the changes between 1914 and 1919 [Ottoman and Russian empires] is going to cause big concerns about what to do.  The dramatic successes this new Polish state is having would also have an impact here while as you say the ambassador would probably be warning them both to respect the Poles and avoid war with the entente.

c)  That might not go down well with their new owners as while they might not like the communists they are bitterly opposed to the revival of Russian imperial power.

d)  True that would be the Japanese priority.

e)  Hopefully we can avoid the Coronel disaster but have to see.

a) or just have the Berliners up and leave for the west at least when hunger bites and they know the Poles will let them through.

b) My take would be that the Ottomans - or at least the envoy at Warsaw and the Generals once the situation clears will think twice about risking the Empire and made a change of Government or at least policy. The possibility of taking parts of Caucasus might in the confused situation go under drapes.

c) Quite. But the alternative isn't a cakewalk - fight the Entente in the Med or pick up the German Military mission in an attempt to get it out to Romania and then scuttle the ships there. The ships will be lost either which way.

d) Phew, that one off.

e) Well depends on v. Spee's decision - I have stuff in mind will be up once I have finished September.

[575]

September 1914/19/30 Part 1 (have to divide into parts - basically to write up parts which needs research)

The German harvest of 1914 proved disastrous. Just about every part of the country east of the Elbe except Mecklenburg and west Pommern didn't contribute to the national reaping due to Polish occupation and ongoing fighting.
Not only was it a loss of harvest but also of about 22 million of the 65-70 mill. at the outbreak of war. Loss of about 20 % of industry with a sizeable lot of coalmines and ironore mining.
The territorial loss so far amounted to a third of the Empire in Europe!
This loss also meant a huge loss of the projected harvest as the eastern provinces of Prussia now controlled by Poland housed huge estates focused on agricultural production. Already dependant upon import of some 30 % of needs during peace and with no preventive measures having been carried out the bottom fell out of the German breadbasket.
Rationing had to be carried out immediately if general hunger was to be averted and most possibly leading to riots in the industry heavy Ruhr dominated by Socialdemocratic workers.

Already the Socialdemocratic Party had raised this issue during the first Parliamentary session at Frankfurt. Chancellor v. Bethmann Hollweg adressing the issue fervently and heavily sweating was countered by the Socialdemocratic leader Ebert who with the backing of the majority of German industrial voters now the country had lost the agricultural East asked how government would feed his constituency so that it would be able to carry on arming the German military in this war.
V. Bettmann Hollweg mumble about the rationing that would make the Empire pull through hard times if everybody – stern gaze at Ebert – would be doing their utmost and then ended the session.

At the following cabinet meeting it was obvious that v. Bettmann Hollweg had been hit where it hurt the most.

In the Far East v. Spee had assembled his Cruiser Squadron at Ponape in the Marianas. The light cruiser Nürnberg was sent to Hawaii to get news about the Wars going.
Recieving the most unsettling news v. Spee had to ponder what to do. Japan of 1905 instead of 1914 and a huge Civil War in Russia between Communist's and Czarist forces. A Poland of the future in Eastern Europe having disrupted the German war effort with Berlin captured! The offensive in the West stalled outside Paris.
No surprise then that Russian and Japanese ships had been few and far between.
The Fatherland in mortal danger. V. Spee had to do his utmost to ease the situation of the Fatherland – he had to engage the RN in area on his terms. That damned BC HMAS Australia could take out his entire squadron in one engagement. He had to be cautious trying to split the RN by raids all over the place and keep his CA ready to deal if possible a mortal blow to Australia – would it be possible; he had to.
Provisions would be a problem so he had to act fast and spread out to plunder whats possible and find the prepositioned German Navy logistics steamers.

Both Room 40 and Polish Intelligence intercept Imperial German Navy telegrammes and radiomassages to v. Spee acknowledging his intent and providing latest positions for ligistics steamers that may have diveded from original intend which information is forwarded to RN China Station to dissiminate to units to hunt down v. Spee's ships.

[stevep]

Nov 1, 2024 11:02:02 GMT 575 said:

Nov 1, 2024 10:50:46 GMT stevep said:

a)  So Berlin isn't or can't simply be surrendered to the Poles.  That does sound a loop-hole if it means they don't have to supply food and other requirements but can cut off such supplies from outside as you could force mass suffering and deaths if you so desired.

b)  I can't remember it specifically but would expect the Turkish ambassador to have contacted the 1914 government.  However I think even the changes between 1914 and 1919 [Ottoman and Russian empires] is going to cause big concerns about what to do.  The dramatic successes this new Polish state is having would also have an impact here while as you say the ambassador would probably be warning them both to respect the Poles and avoid war with the entente.

c)  That might not go down well with their new owners as while they might not like the communists they are bitterly opposed to the revival of Russian imperial power.

d)  True that would be the Japanese priority.

e)  Hopefully we can avoid the Coronel disaster but have to see.

a) or just have the Berliners up and leave for the west at least when hunger bites and they know the Poles will let them through.

b) My take would be that the Ottomans - or at least the envoy at Warsaw and the Generals once the situation clears will think twice about risking the Empire and made a change of Government or at least policy. The possibility of taking parts of Caucasus might in the confused situation go under drapes.

c) Quite. But the alternative isn't a cakewalk - fight the Entente in the Med or pick up the German Military mission in an attempt to get it out to Romania and then scuttle the ships there. The ships will be lost either which way.

d) Phew, that one off.

e) Well depends on v. Spee's decision - I have stuff in mind will be up once I have finished September.

a)  Its possible that they might largely depopulate Berlin in the short term but its going to be politically very bad for them if their denying food to large numbers of starving civilians.  Also no matter what happens Germany will stay a larger demographic power than Poland and an highly developed one compared to the rest of the world outside Poland.  Its not going to be happy if Poland tries to claim Berlin, or neighbouring areas which have a large German majority.  I see long term problems here for Poland if its too harsh and especially with the German capital.  You would very likely have a German reaction compared to the French one over the AL loss in 1871.

c)  Well the other one is to stay neutral and at peace, which would have some economic advantages.  However I suspect they will seek expansion in the Caucasus region and IIRC they were even talking of including the Turkish speaking populations of Central Asia - although that would either require a sea link over the Caspian or gaining control of much of northern Persia so suspect that wouldn't be too practical.

[stevep]

Nov 2, 2024 9:58:50 GMT 575 said:

September 1914/19/30 Part 1 (have to divide into parts - basically to write up parts which needs research)

The German harvest of 1914 proved disastrous. Just about every part of the country east of the Elbe except Mecklenburg and west Pommern didn't contribute to the national reaping due to Polish occupation and ongoing fighting.
Not only was it a loss of harvest but also of about 22 million of the 65-70 mill. at the outbreak of war. Loss of about 20 % of industry with a sizeable lot of coalmines and ironore mining.
The territorial loss so far amounted to a third of the Empire in Europe!
This loss also meant a huge loss of the projected harvest as the eastern provinces of Prussia now controlled by Poland housed huge estates focused on agricultural production. Already dependant upon import of some 30 % of needs during peace and with no preventive measures having been carried out the bottom fell out of the German breadbasket.
Rationing had to be carried out immediately if general hunger was to be averted and most possibly leading to riots in the industry heavy Ruhr dominated by Socialdemocratic workers.

Already the Socialdemocratic Party had raised this issue during the first Parliamentary session at Frankfurt. Chancellor v. Bethmann Hollweg adressing the issue fervently and heavily sweating was countered by the Socialdemocratic leader Ebert who with the backing of the majority of German industrial voters now the country had lost the agricultural East asked how government would feed his constituency so that it would be able to carry on arming the German military in this war.
V. Bettmann Hollweg mumble about the rationing that would make the Empire pull through hard times if everybody – stern gaze at Ebert – would be doing their utmost and then ended the session.

At the following cabinet meeting it was obvious that v. Bettmann Hollweg had been hit where it hurt the most.

In the Far East v. Spee had assembled his Cruiser Squadron at Ponape in the Marianas. The light cruiser Nürnberg was sent to Hawaii to get news about the Wars going.
Recieving the most unsettling news v. Spee had to ponder what to do. Japan of 1905 instead of 1914 and a huge Civil War in Russia between Communist's and Czarist forces. A Poland of the future in Eastern Europe having disrupted the German war effort with Berlin captured! The offensive in the West stalled outside Paris.
No surprise then that Russian and Japanese ships had been few and far between.
The Fatherland in mortal danger. V. Spee had to do his utmost to ease the situation of the Fatherland – he had to engage the RN in area on his terms. That damned BC HMAS Australia could take out his entire squadron in one engagement. He had to be cautious trying to split the RN by raids all over the place and keep his CA ready to deal if possible a mortal blow to Australia – would it be possible; he had to.
Provisions would be a problem so he had to act fast and spread out to plunder whats possible and find the prepositioned German Navy logistics steamers.

Both Room 40 and Polish Intelligence intercept Imperial German Navy telegrammes and radiomassages to v. Spee acknowledging his intent and providing latest positions for ligistics steamers that may have diveded from original intend which information is forwarded to RN China Station to dissiminate to units to hunt down v. Spee's ships.

  Another factor here is that Germany will be desperate for more troops so unless it changes its policy of preferring recruits from rural/agricultural regions to industrial ones there will be even less farmer workers.  Furthermore even if they recruit largely from the industrial regions the forces will rely heavily on horses for movement of supplies, artillery and the like which will take more of them out of the civilian market, hitting agriculture even harder.

  I think that there were a fair number of Poles who had moved to industrial areas from the eastern provinces for employment so their position is going to be awkward.  They could face a lot of hostility but in turn the economy would be hit further if their dismissed.

  Going to be interesting with v Spee's force.  He's going to want to do something but the information from the Poles, both in terms of aid in intercepting communications/breaking codes and possibly even more the historical data it could mean an early battle which ends his raiding career.  At the same time he has a lot of sea to high in.  HMAS Australia would be a major threat but could probably only take out one or two of the German force as their likely to scatter if they run into her and also there were problems with teh 12" guns at longer ranges - due to vibrations in the barrels IIRC - so the amount of ammo would be a factor as well.  Historically at the Falklands both BCs were running low on ammo before they killed the two respective AC's they were chasing, although partly that was because of Sturdee's tactics.  Be interesting to see what develops.

[575]

Nov 2, 2024 12:09:12 GMT stevep said:

Nov 1, 2024 11:02:02 GMT 575 said:

a) or just have the Berliners up and leave for the west at least when hunger bites and they know the Poles will let them through.

b) My take would be that the Ottomans - or at least the envoy at Warsaw and the Generals once the situation clears will think twice about risking the Empire and made a change of Government or at least policy. The possibility of taking parts of Caucasus might in the confused situation go under drapes.

c) Quite. But the alternative isn't a cakewalk - fight the Entente in the Med or pick up the German Military mission in an attempt to get it out to Romania and then scuttle the ships there. The ships will be lost either which way.

d) Phew, that one off.

e) Well depends on v. Spee's decision - I have stuff in mind will be up once I have finished September.

a)  Its possible that they might largely depopulate Berlin in the short term but its going to be politically very bad for them if their denying food to large numbers of starving civilians.  Also no matter what happens Germany will stay a larger demographic power than Poland and an highly developed one compared to the rest of the world outside Poland.  Its not going to be happy if Poland tries to claim Berlin, or neighbouring areas which have a large German majority.  I see long term problems here for Poland if its too harsh and especially with the German capital.  You would very likely have a German reaction compared to the French one over the AL loss in 1871.

c)  Well the other one is to stay neutral and at peace, which would have some economic advantages.  However I suspect they will seek expansion in the Caucasus region and IIRC they were even talking of including the Turkish speaking populations of Central Asia - although that would either require a sea link over the Caspian or gaining control of much of northern Persia so suspect that wouldn't be too practical.

a) I would solely see it as a lever to get the Germans into negotiating and certainly not for keeps - I'd guess even Pilsudski would be too clever to think of such. The problem is whatever the Poles will do the Germans will want revenge. BTW starvation is coming and the Berliners try reduce the effect. Have thought of what the Poles would do with the German harvest in the areas controlled by Poland - letting the Germans themselves move it to Berlin would be a way of reducing starvation and show the World "hey we are letting your peoples help themselves not starve."

c) My take too which would also entail keeping their Empire with no Lawrence of Arabia - except on his own.

[575]

Nov 2, 2024 12:22:33 GMT stevep said:

Nov 2, 2024 9:58:50 GMT 575 said:

September 1914/19/30 Part 1 (have to divide into parts - basically to write up parts which needs research)

The German harvest of 1914 proved disastrous. Just about every part of the country east of the Elbe except Mecklenburg and west Pommern didn't contribute to the national reaping due to Polish occupation and ongoing fighting.
Not only was it a loss of harvest but also of about 22 million of the 65-70 mill. at the outbreak of war. Loss of about 20 % of industry with a sizeable lot of coalmines and ironore mining.
The territorial loss so far amounted to a third of the Empire in Europe!
This loss also meant a huge loss of the projected harvest as the eastern provinces of Prussia now controlled by Poland housed huge estates focused on agricultural production. Already dependant upon import of some 30 % of needs during peace and with no preventive measures having been carried out the bottom fell out of the German breadbasket.
Rationing had to be carried out immediately if general hunger was to be averted and most possibly leading to riots in the industry heavy Ruhr dominated by Socialdemocratic workers.

Already the Socialdemocratic Party had raised this issue during the first Parliamentary session at Frankfurt. Chancellor v. Bethmann Hollweg adressing the issue fervently and heavily sweating was countered by the Socialdemocratic leader Ebert who with the backing of the majority of German industrial voters now the country had lost the agricultural East asked how government would feed his constituency so that it would be able to carry on arming the German military in this war.
V. Bettmann Hollweg mumble about the rationing that would make the Empire pull through hard times if everybody – stern gaze at Ebert – would be doing their utmost and then ended the session.

At the following cabinet meeting it was obvious that v. Bettmann Hollweg had been hit where it hurt the most.

In the Far East v. Spee had assembled his Cruiser Squadron at Ponape in the Marianas. The light cruiser Nürnberg was sent to Hawaii to get news about the Wars going.
Recieving the most unsettling news v. Spee had to ponder what to do. Japan of 1905 instead of 1914 and a huge Civil War in Russia between Communist's and Czarist forces. A Poland of the future in Eastern Europe having disrupted the German war effort with Berlin captured! The offensive in the West stalled outside Paris.
No surprise then that Russian and Japanese ships had been few and far between.
The Fatherland in mortal danger. V. Spee had to do his utmost to ease the situation of the Fatherland – he had to engage the RN in area on his terms. That damned BC HMAS Australia could take out his entire squadron in one engagement. He had to be cautious trying to split the RN by raids all over the place and keep his CA ready to deal if possible a mortal blow to Australia – would it be possible; he had to.
Provisions would be a problem so he had to act fast and spread out to plunder whats possible and find the prepositioned German Navy logistics steamers.

Both Room 40 and Polish Intelligence intercept Imperial German Navy telegrammes and radiomassages to v. Spee acknowledging his intent and providing latest positions for ligistics steamers that may have diveded from original intend which information is forwarded to RN China Station to dissiminate to units to hunt down v. Spee's ships.

  Another factor here is that Germany will be desperate for more troops so unless it changes its policy of preferring recruits from rural/agricultural regions to industrial ones there will be even less farmer workers.  Furthermore even if they recruit largely from the industrial regions the forces will rely heavily on horses for movement of supplies, artillery and the like which will take more of them out of the civilian market, hitting agriculture even harder.

  I think that there were a fair number of Poles who had moved to industrial areas from the eastern provinces for employment so their position is going to be awkward.  They could face a lot of hostility but in turn the economy would be hit further if their dismissed.

  Going to be interesting with v Spee's force.  He's going to want to do something but the information from the Poles, both in terms of aid in intercepting communications/breaking codes and possibly even more the historical data it could mean an early battle which ends his raiding career.  At the same time he has a lot of sea to high in.  HMAS Australia would be a major threat but could probably only take out one or two of the German force as their likely to scatter if they run into her and also there were problems with teh 12" guns at longer ranges - due to vibrations in the barrels IIRC - so the amount of ammo would be a factor as well.  Historically at the Falklands both BCs were running low on ammo before they killed the two respective AC's they were chasing, although partly that was because of Sturdee's tactics.  Be interesting to see what develops.

Germany have a REAL problem on its hands. They may cut back on fertilizer for agriculture which will make things even worse in their areas. Those agricultural men to a large part lived in the East of Germany even if farms generally dotted the landscape outside towns and cities - at least major producers. Being robbed of 1/3 of the possible mobilizable men is also a real problem.

Denmark supplied quite a number of horses to Germany in both World Wars and will so here.

Found something extremely nasty here - 22.7 % unemployment in German (industry) within 2 months of the mobilization because of skilled workers, specialist's and workforemen being drafted. Presumably the General Staff found it to be better to control them in the Army than having them roam freely in the cities.

The Germans didn't intern foreign nationals untill late 1914 early 1915 so they may stay in place but of course as with the British they may suffer abuse.

V. Spee - well my hidden agenda would be for him to try a Graf Spee on HMAS Australia though of course such will be difficult to pull off certainly so with the RN and Poles listening in on radiotraffic. Those German ACs are rather deadly to a pre-Dreadnought but a modern BC.. 

[stevep]

Nov 2, 2024 16:39:53 GMT 575 said:

Nov 2, 2024 12:09:12 GMT stevep said:

a)  Its possible that they might largely depopulate Berlin in the short term but its going to be politically very bad for them if their denying food to large numbers of starving civilians.  Also no matter what happens Germany will stay a larger demographic power than Poland and an highly developed one compared to the rest of the world outside Poland.  Its not going to be happy if Poland tries to claim Berlin, or neighbouring areas which have a large German majority.  I see long term problems here for Poland if its too harsh and especially with the German capital.  You would very likely have a German reaction compared to the French one over the AL loss in 1871.

c)  Well the other one is to stay neutral and at peace, which would have some economic advantages.  However I suspect they will seek expansion in the Caucasus region and IIRC they were even talking of including the Turkish speaking populations of Central Asia - although that would either require a sea link over the Caspian or gaining control of much of northern Persia so suspect that wouldn't be too practical.

a) I would solely see it as a lever to get the Germans into negotiating and certainly not for keeps - I'd guess even Pilsudski would be too clever to think of such. The problem is whatever the Poles will do the Germans will want revenge. BTW starvation is coming and the Berliners try reduce the effect. Have thought of what the Poles would do with the German harvest in the areas controlled by Poland - letting the Germans themselves move it to Berlin would be a way of reducing starvation and show the World "hey we are letting your peoples help themselves not starve."

c) My take too which would also entail keeping their Empire with no Lawrence of Arabia - except on his own.

a)  Thanks for clarifying.  I agree that the Germans will want revenge regardless but if there's clear and large scale civilian suffering in Berlin which can be pointed at as clearly caused by the Polish actions its going to both heighten that desire for revenge and also make the western powers less willing to support the Poles in the longer term.

  One thing the Poles could do would be to say they would enable a safe route for food and other non-military materials to reach Berlin - say by a single rail line - with them checking no military stuff gets through.  This throws a good chunk of the responsibility back on the Germans, reducing any international damage for Poland and of course having lost its eastern territories its going to struggle to find the food to feed Berlin, which will cut down on resources for elsewhere, including the army.

c)  I would say there would be little chance of the Arab revolt succeeding without the OTL substantial allied aid and of course the allied forces that actually occupied the bulk of the fertile crescent. If there's still a revolt without this its going to cause the Turks some problems but I would expect them to be relatively minor.