4 August 1914 - Poland of July 1930, Russia of June 1919 and Imperial Japan of 8 February 1905 ISOT

[575]

Franz Ferdinand of Austria – Hungary had been assassinated in Sarajevo 28 June 1914.
Germany have declared war on France and is violating the Belgian border triggering British entry. In the East A-H have been at war with Serbia since 28 July when A-H artillery shelled Belgrade.
Russia then declared war on A-H and mobilized triggering German demand of Russia backing down or facing War by 1 August at which date Germany declared war on Russia.

80% of the German Army troops were in the west invading Belgium and France; 8. Army was guarding East Prussia and the border with Russian Poland. This Army consisted of three Infantry Corps and a Reserve Infantry Corps some Border Defence Units and some Landwehr for static defences.

The Austria-Hungarians had deployed three Armies in Galizia facing Russia and two Armies against Serbia.
The 2. Army the best A-H troops were entrained to be able to move against either.

No foreign interventionist troops in Russia nor the Czech/Polish Legions is ISOT. This leave some areas occupied by such open.

Russian Royal in Britain: Grand Duke Michael Mikhailovich disinherited due to his marrying morgantic.

Map of Soviet Union June 1919 (some areas are un-controlled like the Silesian blue and areas controlled by British or other interventionst forces. New independent states on Russian 1914 territory are these arriving along Russia – Finland, Baltics etc.)

[575]

Poland of 1930

ruled by General Pilsudkij still had unsettled issues with Germany regarding the borders in West Prussia, Posen and Silesia as well as Danzig.
The arrival of Poland in 1914 robbed Imperial Germany of quite a lot of territory and some Border Defence and Landwehr Brigades in Posen and West Prussia now under Polish control.

Austria-Hungary was even worse off following the Polish ISOT to 1914 as A-H Galizia now was part of Poland and A-H also missing three Armies and most of a fourth.

The Russian Civil War was going on and during June 1919 the White forces initiated offensives against the Bolsheviks initially having a fine start.

In the Far East Imperial Japan had decided to settle its score with Imperial Russia thus is attacking Liaochang Peninsular to attain Port Arthus which it found Russian having robbing it off in the Settlement with China following the Boxer Rebellion.


Poland was an agricultural nation but also building up industry and had the good fortune of Galizian oilfields to power its industial sector, cars and aircraft. Poland manufactured both though in small numbers. It also as any decent country had its own Arms Industry.
Poland also had limited foreign trade which it was also working to enlarge.

Poland had fought a victorious War against the Soviet Union during 1918-21 making the Soviets ceade a large part of former Russian territory at the Peace in Riga named Kresy by the Poles.
Thus its Armed Forces were well led by experienced officers having fought in the Great War for Germans, Austro-Hungarians, Russians and French!

Army:
30(37 mobilization strength) Inf. Divisions 2 of which are Mountain (in Galizia)
11 Cav. Bde.s
1 Tank Regiment of 116x FT-1, 6x FT-1 Command Tanks
Armoured Cars: 5x Austin
Tankettes: 10x Carden-Lloyd – local production to initiate 1931
10x Armoured Trains
Artillery all WWI vintage
(light Vickers Tanks being set up for local manufacture)

Navy:
1(1 building to be launched 1935)x DD ORP Wicher
5x Torpedo Boats (1x German Z-class, 2x German V-class, 2x German A-class)
2x Gun Boats
4x MS
(2x SS building)
1x Survey Vessel
(1x Frogmen – not combat unit - support ship)

River Flotilla:
6x Monitor
3x Gun Boat
15x Cutter 37mm+ guns

Aircraft:
SPAD S61 Fighters some 250 imported from France – 30 manufacture locally. Bad aircraft many accidents 1924-30
Potez XV observation light bomber – 110 imported from France 1923, 135 build in Poland 1925-26 though withdrawn from frontline units by 1927 becoming trainers, 125 kg bombs.
Potez 25 observation light bomber – 300 licence build in Poland 1925-32; 250 in service 1930? 200 kg bombs.
20x Fokker F-VII/b 3m bombers - 1 import, 19 licence build 1928-32; probably 10 in service
11x Fokker F-VII/b 3m airliners/transports - 11 licence build 1928-32; probably 5 in service
75x BM-4 Trainer build 1928-32; probably 38 in service
250x Breguet XIX recce, light bomber
3x LWS R-VIII recce, bomber 1,000 kg bombs
7x LWS R-X liaison, observation
3x LWS R-VIII Navy floatplane recce, bomber 300 kg bombs

Though the aircraft being only slightly more advanced than late WWI types they were way ahead of German and A-H Army and Navy aviation units which still had no fighter aircraft and also of Soviet ones.

Radio – Code breakers.

[575]

Further effects

A-H have received a severe blow to its ability to fight its enemies and lost a large territory of more than 8 million inhabitants and its source of oil.
Serbia have lost its benefactor Imperial Russia.
Germany have lost a lot of territory in the East which is guarded by an Army less than a quarter of Polands and also some Reserve and Landwehr Brigades and Divisions west of the Vistula.
OTL the German high command did detail 3 Corps from the West Front to East Prussia but these only arrived more than 4 weeks later – too late for battle.

The Bolshevik forces was pressured by the White Armies and their Interventionist Imperialist Brothers in Arms but just as the White Armies were on the go their allies had vanished and rather large areas they'd occupied had become areas without control.

The Japanese invasion force found no Russians in Korea or Machuria but the IJA reported that the Russian Navy Base at Vladivostok seemed demilitarized.

In Scandinavia Norwegian and Swedish border guards were surprised at seeing not Russian but Finn border guards – strange indeed.

[stevep]

   Well this is messy.  The Entente powers have lost Russia totally which is a big blow although they can try and link up with either the Poles or the White Russians once they realise what has happened.  However doubt they can get both on side at the same time.  They do have a fresh country rather than the deeply war weary ones of 1919 but they lack the established military build up of OTL 1919. 

  The CPs have lost important territory but depending on their relations with Poland it does mean their eastern borders are more secure.  However the Germans are likely to be deeply unhappy about the eastern losses and having an unfriendly Poland so close to Berlin as well as E Prussia being geographically isolated from the rest of the empire.  Therefore I suspect coupled with the mutual distrust there will be fighting here.  In such a case the Poles will have a technological and for the moment at least numerical edge but may have troubles maintaining this edge depending on how well they can support their equipment.

  Russia is a disaster, possibly even more than OTL.  Sounds like Finland is also from 1919 and it was somewhat pro-German before the latter's surrender so not sure their political stance will be here.  The loss of allied forces and probably more importantly allied funds and supplies will hinder the Whites here.  Also Kolchak's faction is likely to be worried if not gravely weakened by the political status of 1905 Japan and its hostility.  Those factors should aid the communists unless they come into conflict with the Poles. 

  Serbia has lost its main ally but posed a formidable opponent to the Austrians OTL and is likely to do the same here.  However without Russia as a major player in the Balkans and Black Sea what do other powers, especially the Ottomans and the Bulgarians do?  Also once Vienna realises what has happened it could, if it decides to take the risk, switch its strategic reserve against Serbia, although it might feel tempted to use them to guard the border with the new Polish state, or if their really stupid attack it to regain Galatia.

  Japan is going to be awkward but its relative military weakness and existing alliance with Britain is likely to enable the allies to bring it into line with the EC powers.  Their probably going to take over Manchuria and given the options of a weakened White regime or the Bolsheviks their likely to favour the former.  Although how much they can and will do to aid them would be uncertain.  Furthermore would they be willing to do the OTL attacks on the German base at Tsingtao and their sweep through the German colonies in the Pacific?  Their fleet is a lot weaker here consisting of pre-dreadnought ships and even von Spee's Far East squadron could pose a threat to them, at least for a while.

  The other big issue is how do assorted nations and people adjust to news from 1919 and 19130 and for Japan from 1914.  That's going to cause a fair number of concern about all the social and political upheavals.  There's a possibility that the great powers might decide to call an end to the fighting as they receive news of the great costs of the war OTL.  However I think its more likely to continue as both sides will see advantages for themselves in the current situation and they won't be willing to make concessions to preserve peace.

  My gut feeling is that the allies will still win despite the lack of a powerful Russia to the east and the probability that the Ottomans will still aid the CPs.  While the allies have lost Russia they have a formidable Poland on the eastern flank and the removal of much of the CPs defensive positions while you might see Italy join the EPs earlier.  Also the Poles are likely to be able to provide more information to the allies than the CPs would get.  How much this information is accepted by the allies could be a key issue.

  I suspect that the Bolsheviks will still win in Russia as the Whites have been weakened unless the main war is over quickly and the Whites get help quickly.

  The peace treaty might see less restrictions on the defeated powers although their territorial losses could be greater as the Poles are already in a strong position and France will want A-L back.  However the war is likely to be shorter and less destructive overall and the social changes more restricted as a result so some of the monarchies might survive,

  Anyway initial thoughts on this complex scenario.

 

[575]

Oct 15, 2024 20:59:50 GMT stevep said:

   Well this is messy.  The Entente powers have lost Russia totally which is a big blow although they can try and link up with either the Poles or the White Russians once they realise what has happened.  However doubt they can get both on side at the same time.  They do have a fresh country rather than the deeply war weary ones of 1919 but they lack the established military build up of OTL 1919. 

  The CPs have lost important territory but depending on their relations with Poland it does mean their eastern borders are more secure.  However the Germans are likely to be deeply unhappy about the eastern losses and having an unfriendly Poland so close to Berlin as well as E Prussia being geographically isolated from the rest of the empire.  Therefore I suspect coupled with the mutual distrust there will be fighting here.  In such a case the Poles will have a technological and for the moment at least numerical edge but may have troubles maintaining this edge depending on how well they can support their equipment.

  Russia is a disaster, possibly even more than OTL.  Sounds like Finland is also from 1919 and it was somewhat pro-German before the latter's surrender so not sure their political stance will be here.  The loss of allied forces and probably more importantly allied funds and supplies will hinder the Whites here.  Also Kolchak's faction is likely to be worried if not gravely weakened by the political status of 1905 Japan and its hostility.  Those factors should aid the communists unless they come into conflict with the Poles. 

  Serbia has lost its main ally but posed a formidable opponent to the Austrians OTL and is likely to do the same here.  However without Russia as a major player in the Balkans and Black Sea what do other powers, especially the Ottomans and the Bulgarians do?  Also once Vienna realises what has happened it could, if it decides to take the risk, switch its strategic reserve against Serbia, although it might feel tempted to use them to guard the border with the new Polish state, or if their really stupid attack it to regain Galatia.

  Japan is going to be awkward but its relative military weakness and existing alliance with Britain is likely to enable the allies to bring it into line with the EC powers.  Their probably going to take over Manchuria and given the options of a weakened White regime or the Bolsheviks their likely to favour the former.  Although how much they can and will do to aid them would be uncertain.  Furthermore would they be willing to do the OTL attacks on the German base at Tsingtao and their sweep through the German colonies in the Pacific?  Their fleet is a lot weaker here consisting of pre-dreadnought ships and even von Spee's Far East squadron could pose a threat to them, at least for a while.

  The other big issue is how do assorted nations and people adjust to news from 1919 and 19130 and for Japan from 1914.  That's going to cause a fair number of concern about all the social and political upheavals.  There's a possibility that the great powers might decide to call an end to the fighting as they receive news of the great costs of the war OTL.  However I think its more likely to continue as both sides will see advantages for themselves in the current situation and they won't be willing to make concessions to preserve peace.

  My gut feeling is that the allies will still win despite the lack of a powerful Russia to the east and the probability that the Ottomans will still aid the CPs.  While the allies have lost Russia they have a formidable Poland on the eastern flank and the removal of much of the CPs defensive positions while you might see Italy join the EPs earlier.  Also the Poles are likely to be able to provide more information to the allies than the CPs would get.  How much this information is accepted by the allies could be a key issue.

  I suspect that the Bolsheviks will still win in Russia as the Whites have been weakened unless the main war is over quickly and the Whites get help quickly.

  The peace treaty might see less restrictions on the defeated powers although their territorial losses could be greater as the Poles are already in a strong position and France will want A-L back.  However the war is likely to be shorter and less destructive overall and the social changes more restricted as a result so some of the monarchies might survive,

  Anyway initial thoughts on this complex scenario.

 

The IJA is going to attack Port Arthur 1904 so will be quite confused about no Russians around!

The German Far East Fleet of v. Spee is found here - there was also a few warships at Tsingtao including an old A-H armoured cruiser. The GFEF was spread all over the German Pacific possessions and v. Spee have to form his fleet before doing much.

OTL the Japanese used the Russian Pre-Dreadnoughts captured during Russo-Jap War 1904-5 for bombarding Tsingtao. These are of course not in IJA inventory of 1904. Its ships are listed here - v. Spee may be able to inflict serious damage upon it.

The Japanese may decide to go for Manchuria or Vladivostok as the latter is deserted of Japanese 1919 troops before the White forces do so. Such an alliance might be desirable for the Japanese though might well want a Russian agreement on whats Japanese in Far East - basically everything beyond the Russian southern border. Manchuria, Mongolia, Korea, China etc.

I think a lot depend on what the Japanese decide to do initially as communications around the Globe may take some time and decisionmaking add to this - they still have the British alliance so of course the British will have to figure out what to ask the Japanese to do.

The Germans - I don't see them accepting ANY loss of territory to the despicable Poles! However Berlin will be in danger and with the A-H Eastern Army gone no help will come from that party - caution may be the word.

Would v. Moltke panic and call off the attack in the West? Belgium have been invaded, the British on their way to the Continent and fighting was happening in Alsace with the French.

I don't think an immediate call off of the hostilities is on the agenda.

Thus the Germans will be hostile against the Poles though perhaps a little cautious untill something have been worked out of which troops to place where.

East Prussia will be as difficult for the Poles to invade in 1914 as it had been to the Russians and the Germans will have their benefit of interior lines. That of course will also to some extend be the case on the Polish side of the border.

Though the Germans of 1914 have no dedicated AT-weapons OTL they figured out how to battle tanks and an FT-17 is some flimsy instrument of war though the Poles know how to use these.

Regarding rifle rounds and artillery shells the Poles should be able to hold ground for some weeks and they have a serious advantage in troop no.s. 30/37 Divs. to 8 initially plus lots of Cavalry and armoured trains that may do just as well in 1914 as they did in 1919-21. The real force multiplier of the Poles is their Air Arm. Ability to reconnoiter the entire border and into Germany if so wanted - being able to bomb the enemy as their Reconnaisance aircraft of the day would also double as light bombers in addition to the dedicated ones.

The Germans have total dominance of the Baltic if they so wish but then the Poles have a very short shoreline. The Polish Navy won't make much of itself.

A-H is in deep sh..

The majority of the Army is gone. Oil fields are gone which will also affect the Germans. The Serbs will be no less difficult to fight and the Italians might have second thoughts once the new realities sink in. If the Serbs are going to run amok; bye-bye Dalmatia!

The Poles may have no design on A-H territory but even the mere thought once Polish armed potential is unfolded..

The A-H Second Army may detrain a Corps to watch the Carpatian passes and rail the bulk south to kick the Serbs out of Belgrade. It will be the lesser evil - doing no such thing might just be inviting the Italians.

Sending their Navy into the Med along Goeben won't be an option - its a fleet in being vis-a-vis the Italians. The French may be mainly pre-Dreadnoughts in the Med but there is a darn lot of them besides the few Dreadnoughts and the RN Battlecruisers.

Ottomans and Bulgarians - probably doing little in the Balkans as long as the situation is unclear. Once A-H is deemed impotent - more than already - either may decide to do something though the problem is both want the same piece of realestate!

Except the Ottomans in the Caucasus where the areas of English control is vacant and Armenia can be brushed aside. The White Russians are already on the offensive (and will be out of the game in about a month) and thus shouldn't be provoked at the moment.

Britain - Belgiums been invaded by Germany thus war is declared and BEF will sail for France.

Should the White Russians be aided - where and how? Shipping to Murmansk? The railway have been finished but the British of 1914 don't know.

Shipping to Crimea - Caucasus ports - through the Turkish Straits? If Goeben plays out as OTL that would be a no - and anyway possibly not in the interest of the Ottomans unless they would pull a Stalin. Wait while the two infidel fractions kill each other off only to move in and pick up the spoils (Baku).

From the Persian Gulf through Iraq or Persia? Possible but will need trucks or other forms of caravan established.

Shipped to Vladivostok - the situation there not known but the Japanese may find out! Though they are also needed as cannon fodder regarding Tsingtao. And v. Spee have to be taken care of so the RN will be busy in that area as the IJA might need some persuation to do that job too (was this why OTL v. Spee had room to mill about? then no better here!)

Sane Germans will talk nice to the Poles and frantically pull any kind of border guards from Danish, Dutch, Swiss, Austrian borders to the Polish one. Perhaps re-deploy the 3 active corps of 8. Army from East Prussia to east of Berlin on the Oder and let the Reserve Corps remain to defend the province even if its Sacred Soil!

Then work to minimize forces in the West to be able to pull out troops to give the Poles a bashing.

The French will much like the possibility of a strong anti-German power in Germanys backyard to take some of the pressure off them - the more the better.

The British and French will need to get more info on the Poles and establish diplomatic relations of some kind to get as much knowledge as possible to know whats going on and how to defend their Colonial Empires.

[stevep]

   I had forgotten that Galacia made up the entire border with Russia so they have lost 3 full armies IIRC.  True they won't have 4 Russian ones facing them and will probably underestimate this new Poland initially but its going to be a hell of a shock and the reserve force that could have gone either way and OTL was rather wasted by indecision is going to go to the border with Poland.  I'm doubtful that Serbia is going to launch offensives in the short term as they won't initially be aware of or probably believe what's happened and will still face a strong Austrian army while their going to be deeply concerned when they hear of events in Russia and also will be weary of some of their other neighbours, especially with the Greek king being friendly to Berlin.

  I can't see Germany either accepting the loss of land to Poland or willing to give up on the invasion of Belgium and France as that's the core of their entire war plan.  Their likely to discount the Poles and once they hear that Russia has basically collapsed into chaos and doesn't pose a threat this would reassure them but there is going to be panic about the eastern border and how exposed E Prussia is.  As such war on two fronts probably within days.  The initial steamroller through Belgium, although there may be significant butterflies and the disastrous French strikes into Alsace-Lorraine.  How it goes from there is very much up in the air.

  Japan is going to be confused and also relieved when they find no Russian forces in Manchuria.  They should be able to link with the rest of the world fairly quickly assuming that the telegram cables haven't been cut.  I would expect they would join the war against Germany because they can gain German possessions in N China and the western Pacific, albeit since their unready and a decade less well equipped it could take some time.  They might also seek gains in the north in the vacuum where Russia used to be as they could find that too tempting and given the weakening of the White forces by the changes also arguing their defending against the Bolsheviks.

  France especially is going to be worried when it discovers that Russia has basically disappeared as an eastern counter to Germany but might be reassured by the news of the new Poland and it won't have much choose with the Germans driving towards Paris.  Britain it will probably have less impact on initially but there will be concerns about Russia's effective disappearance.

  There's going to be a lot of "what do you mean its 1904/1914/1919/1930" depending on who's talking to whom.  If the allies can get information out of Poland they should benefit, both in technology and also in details about 'future' events and some ideas what to do and not do, although depending on the source some could end up being false.  However this could be a problem as Poland would be relatively isolated with Germany and Austria-Hungary to its west and southwest and controlling the entrance to the Baltic.  Also going to be a lot of people embarrassed as news comes out of 'future' events.  Diplomats in assorted locations will be very important in telling their homelands what has happened in the differing times.

  As I understand it the entire 1914 Russian empire is as it was in 1919 except for those parts that are now parts of 1930 Poland.  That's going to cause a lot of confusion, especially since after its success in the war against the Bolsheviks Poland has a fair amount of land it didn't have in 1919.  Also it will have at least some details of the horrors of communist rule.  This might well mean they seek to align in some ways with some of the White groups but that could be difficult as many of them are pretty reactionary and won't be happy with Polish independence, let alone its expansion so far eastwards.

  Is the Danzig region in its 1914 status?  It was a free city in 1930 which means while the Poles had port access they didn't actually have any authority there so I assume it wasn't in in 1930 mode.

  Not sure what the Italians will do although suspect that the Turks will join the CPs, possibly earlier than OTL.  Other than some areas that were Russian controlled in 1914 and are now in 1919 state they already control virtually all of Armenia and also Mesopotamia as it was known at the time.  The actions of Bulgaria, Romania and Finland among others could also be quite important.

  Going also to be interesting what the US things of news that reach it, both of 1919 and 1930 worlds.

  One thought that occurs to me.  In 1919 the great flu pandemic was still at its height so you could get something very nasty coming out of the former Russian empire and having quite an impact on things.

  The allies are probably going to miss the people they had in 1919 Russia.  The military forces were small - other than possibly the Japanese - but well equipped and experienced and along with the diplomats and others could have supplied a lot of info about WWI that would be useful to them let alone the gaps they will leave in the anti-Bolshevik alliance.  I assume that the allied stores and equipment supplied to the Whites is still present?

[575]

Oct 16, 2024 16:59:55 GMT stevep said:

   I had forgotten that Galacia made up the entire border with Russia so they have lost 3 full armies IIRC.  True they won't have 4 Russian ones facing them and will probably underestimate this new Poland initially but its going to be a hell of a shock and the reserve force that could have gone either way and OTL was rather wasted by indecision is going to go to the border with Poland.  I'm doubtful that Serbia is going to launch offensives in the short term as they won't initially be aware of or probably believe what's happened and will still face a strong Austrian army while their going to be deeply concerned when they hear of events in Russia and also will be weary of some of their other neighbours, especially with the Greek king being friendly to Berlin.

  I can't see Germany either accepting the loss of land to Poland or willing to give up on the invasion of Belgium and France as that's the core of their entire war plan.  Their likely to discount the Poles and once they hear that Russia has basically collapsed into chaos and doesn't pose a threat this would reassure them but there is going to be panic about the eastern border and how exposed E Prussia is.  As such war on two fronts probably within days.  The initial steamroller through Belgium, although there may be significant butterflies and the disastrous French strikes into Alsace-Lorraine.  How it goes from there is very much up in the air.

  Japan is going to be confused and also relieved when they find no Russian forces in Manchuria.  They should be able to link with the rest of the world fairly quickly assuming that the telegram cables haven't been cut.  I would expect they would join the war against Germany because they can gain German possessions in N China and the western Pacific, albeit since their unready and a decade less well equipped it could take some time.  They might also seek gains in the north in the vacuum where Russia used to be as they could find that too tempting and given the weakening of the White forces by the changes also arguing their defending against the Bolsheviks.

  France especially is going to be worried when it discovers that Russia has basically disappeared as an eastern counter to Germany but might be reassured by the news of the new Poland and it won't have much choose with the Germans driving towards Paris.  Britain it will probably have less impact on initially but there will be concerns about Russia's effective disappearance.

  There's going to be a lot of "what do you mean its 1904/1914/1919/1930" depending on who's talking to whom.  If the allies can get information out of Poland they should benefit, both in technology and also in details about 'future' events and some ideas what to do and not do, although depending on the source some could end up being false.  However this could be a problem as Poland would be relatively isolated with Germany and Austria-Hungary to its west and southwest and controlling the entrance to the Baltic.  Also going to be a lot of people embarrassed as news comes out of 'future' events.  Diplomats in assorted locations will be very important in telling their homelands what has happened in the differing times.

  As I understand it the entire 1914 Russian empire is as it was in 1919 except for those parts that are now parts of 1930 Poland.  That's going to cause a lot of confusion, especially since after its success in the war against the Bolsheviks Poland has a fair amount of land it didn't have in 1919.  Also it will have at least some details of the horrors of communist rule.  This might well mean they seek to align in some ways with some of the White groups but that could be difficult as many of them are pretty reactionary and won't be happy with Polish independence, let alone its expansion so far eastwards.

  Is the Danzig region in its 1914 status?  It was a free city in 1930 which means while the Poles had port access they didn't actually have any authority there so I assume it wasn't in in 1930 mode.

  Not sure what the Italians will do although suspect that the Turks will join the CPs, possibly earlier than OTL.  Other than some areas that were Russian controlled in 1914 and are now in 1919 state they already control virtually all of Armenia and also Mesopotamia as it was known at the time.  The actions of Bulgaria, Romania and Finland among others could also be quite important.

  Going also to be interesting what the US things of news that reach it, both of 1919 and 1930 worlds.

  One thought that occurs to me.  In 1919 the great flu pandemic was still at its height so you could get something very nasty coming out of the former Russian empire and having quite an impact on things.

  The allies are probably going to miss the people they had in 1919 Russia.  The military forces were small - other than possibly the Japanese - but well equipped and experienced and along with the diplomats and others could have supplied a lot of info about WWI that would be useful to them let alone the gaps they will leave in the anti-Bolshevik alliance.  I assume that the allied stores and equipment supplied to the Whites is still present?

Danzig is still part of Imperial Germany. Bit difficult to glean from the map.

The Japanese had 70,000 troops in Siberia so those especially their Artillerymen will be sorely missed by the White Army. Allied stores and non-personal equipment will be in place with some at least in the Murmansk area will fall into Soviet hands.

Tried looking up Spanish Flu in Russia - its just one epidemic among a host of cholera, typhoi etc., not to metion the other ravages of Civil War. However a bout of the flu may well come out of Russia though I don't remember reading anywhere else about it - this representative of my finds.

However at this time - 1919 despite a bout during 1920 in some countries like Spain and Denmark that year was relatively spared of the epidemic.

Not to say that the SF cannot get out of Russia it did during 1918 spread from Russia to Asia according to this paper.

So guess the world may be in for an epidemic though perhaps not of the 1918-19 proportions.

The US certainly is interesting - will it increase isolationism? I'd think it could. Why take active part in all this and risk an epidemic to top it off?

Though also what to learn of the gathered information from Russia and Poland - though according to circumstances this may be limited. Even with the telegraph lines around the World.

[stevep]

Oct 16, 2024 20:20:28 GMT 575 said:

Oct 16, 2024 16:59:55 GMT stevep said:

   I had forgotten that Galacia made up the entire border with Russia so they have lost 3 full armies IIRC.  True they won't have 4 Russian ones facing them and will probably underestimate this new Poland initially but its going to be a hell of a shock and the reserve force that could have gone either way and OTL was rather wasted by indecision is going to go to the border with Poland.  I'm doubtful that Serbia is going to launch offensives in the short term as they won't initially be aware of or probably believe what's happened and will still face a strong Austrian army while their going to be deeply concerned when they hear of events in Russia and also will be weary of some of their other neighbours, especially with the Greek king being friendly to Berlin.

  I can't see Germany either accepting the loss of land to Poland or willing to give up on the invasion of Belgium and France as that's the core of their entire war plan.  Their likely to discount the Poles and once they hear that Russia has basically collapsed into chaos and doesn't pose a threat this would reassure them but there is going to be panic about the eastern border and how exposed E Prussia is.  As such war on two fronts probably within days.  The initial steamroller through Belgium, although there may be significant butterflies and the disastrous French strikes into Alsace-Lorraine.  How it goes from there is very much up in the air.

  Japan is going to be confused and also relieved when they find no Russian forces in Manchuria.  They should be able to link with the rest of the world fairly quickly assuming that the telegram cables haven't been cut.  I would expect they would join the war against Germany because they can gain German possessions in N China and the western Pacific, albeit since their unready and a decade less well equipped it could take some time.  They might also seek gains in the north in the vacuum where Russia used to be as they could find that too tempting and given the weakening of the White forces by the changes also arguing their defending against the Bolsheviks.

  France especially is going to be worried when it discovers that Russia has basically disappeared as an eastern counter to Germany but might be reassured by the news of the new Poland and it won't have much choose with the Germans driving towards Paris.  Britain it will probably have less impact on initially but there will be concerns about Russia's effective disappearance.

  There's going to be a lot of "what do you mean its 1904/1914/1919/1930" depending on who's talking to whom.  If the allies can get information out of Poland they should benefit, both in technology and also in details about 'future' events and some ideas what to do and not do, although depending on the source some could end up being false.  However this could be a problem as Poland would be relatively isolated with Germany and Austria-Hungary to its west and southwest and controlling the entrance to the Baltic.  Also going to be a lot of people embarrassed as news comes out of 'future' events.  Diplomats in assorted locations will be very important in telling their homelands what has happened in the differing times.

  As I understand it the entire 1914 Russian empire is as it was in 1919 except for those parts that are now parts of 1930 Poland.  That's going to cause a lot of confusion, especially since after its success in the war against the Bolsheviks Poland has a fair amount of land it didn't have in 1919.  Also it will have at least some details of the horrors of communist rule.  This might well mean they seek to align in some ways with some of the White groups but that could be difficult as many of them are pretty reactionary and won't be happy with Polish independence, let alone its expansion so far eastwards.

  Is the Danzig region in its 1914 status?  It was a free city in 1930 which means while the Poles had port access they didn't actually have any authority there so I assume it wasn't in in 1930 mode.

  Not sure what the Italians will do although suspect that the Turks will join the CPs, possibly earlier than OTL.  Other than some areas that were Russian controlled in 1914 and are now in 1919 state they already control virtually all of Armenia and also Mesopotamia as it was known at the time.  The actions of Bulgaria, Romania and Finland among others could also be quite important.

  Going also to be interesting what the US things of news that reach it, both of 1919 and 1930 worlds.

  One thought that occurs to me.  In 1919 the great flu pandemic was still at its height so you could get something very nasty coming out of the former Russian empire and having quite an impact on things.

  The allies are probably going to miss the people they had in 1919 Russia.  The military forces were small - other than possibly the Japanese - but well equipped and experienced and along with the diplomats and others could have supplied a lot of info about WWI that would be useful to them let alone the gaps they will leave in the anti-Bolshevik alliance.  I assume that the allied stores and equipment supplied to the Whites is still present?

Danzig is still part of Imperial Germany. Bit difficult to glean from the map.

The Japanese had 70,000 troops in Siberia so those especially their Artillerymen will be sorely missed by the White Army. Allied stores and non-personal equipment will be in place with some at least in the Murmansk area will fall into Soviet hands.

Tried looking up Spanish Flu in Russia - its just one epidemic among a host of cholera, typhoi etc., not to metion the other ravages of Civil War. However a bout of the flu may well come out of Russia though I don't remember reading anywhere else about it - this representative of my finds.

However at this time - 1919 despite a bout during 1920 in some countries like Spain and Denmark that year was relatively spared of the epidemic.

Not to say that the SF cannot get out of Russia it did during 1918 spread from Russia to Asia according to this paper.

So guess the world may be in for an epidemic though perhaps not of the 1918-19 proportions.

The US certainly is interesting - will it increase isolationism? I'd think it could. Why take active part in all this and risk an epidemic to top it off?

Though also what to learn of the gathered information from Russia and Poland - though according to circumstances this may be limited. Even with the telegraph lines around the World.

a)  OK thanks.  I suspected that was the case.  One early Polish/German clash could be over the fact the Poles are now cut off from the sea as the Germans aren't going to let them use the port facilities as they have been doing for a decade.  Which will mean that there is quick resentment/anger on the Polish as well as the German side.

b)  That's going to hurt.  One thing that could be a factor here might be the Finns who have defeated their own Reds to gain independence and might, if they realise in time, intervene to at least grab those supplies for themselves rather than let them fall into enemy hands.

c)  Given the chaos in Russia at the time it might not have been reported as much with everything else going on in the benighted region.  However much have been about and could possibly leak out.  However without the war-time restrictions on knowledge and reporting problems most countries could take health measures that might reduce the casualties, plus also the Poles will have details of what happened historically to them so they can act and also inform other powers.

d)  I could well see America staying in isolationism.  Which is ironic in terms of the pandemic as it started in the US.  It also gives the possibility that a wave out of Russia could be followed by one out of the US in ~1917 if the same starting conditions see it develop.

  With Russia in chaos and a lot of information under 'debate' the main source could be Poland but between the chaos to the east and the autocratic and hostile states to the west it could have problems getting information to other powers.

[575]

Oct 17, 2024 8:27:00 GMT stevep said:

Oct 16, 2024 20:20:28 GMT 575 said:

Danzig is still part of Imperial Germany. Bit difficult to glean from the map.

The Japanese had 70,000 troops in Siberia so those especially their Artillerymen will be sorely missed by the White Army. Allied stores and non-personal equipment will be in place with some at least in the Murmansk area will fall into Soviet hands.

Tried looking up Spanish Flu in Russia - its just one epidemic among a host of cholera, typhoi etc., not to metion the other ravages of Civil War. However a bout of the flu may well come out of Russia though I don't remember reading anywhere else about it - this representative of my finds.

However at this time - 1919 despite a bout during 1920 in some countries like Spain and Denmark that year was relatively spared of the epidemic.

Not to say that the SF cannot get out of Russia it did during 1918 spread from Russia to Asia according to this paper.

So guess the world may be in for an epidemic though perhaps not of the 1918-19 proportions.

The US certainly is interesting - will it increase isolationism? I'd think it could. Why take active part in all this and risk an epidemic to top it off?

Though also what to learn of the gathered information from Russia and Poland - though according to circumstances this may be limited. Even with the telegraph lines around the World.

a)  OK thanks.  I suspected that was the case.  One early Polish/German clash could be over the fact the Poles are now cut off from the sea as the Germans aren't going to let them use the port facilities as they have been doing for a decade.  Which will mean that there is quick resentment/anger on the Polish as well as the German side.

b)  That's going to hurt.  One thing that could be a factor here might be the Finns who have defeated their own Reds to gain independence and might, if they realise in time, intervene to at least grab those supplies for themselves rather than let them fall into enemy hands.

c)  Given the chaos in Russia at the time it might not have been reported as much with everything else going on in the benighted region.  However much have been about and could possibly leak out.  However without the war-time restrictions on knowledge and reporting problems most countries could take health measures that might reduce the casualties, plus also the Poles will have details of what happened historically to them so they can act and also inform other powers.

d)  I could well see America staying in isolationism.  Which is ironic in terms of the pandemic as it started in the US.  It also gives the possibility that a wave out of Russia could be followed by one out of the US in ~1917 if the same starting conditions see it develop.

  With Russia in chaos and a lot of information under 'debate' the main source could be Poland but between the chaos to the east and the autocratic and hostile states to the west it could have problems getting information to other powers.

a) Poland still have its 1930 borders thus a short coastline and East Prussia is isolated from the rest of Germany which will of course enrage the Imperial Germans even more AND lessen the ability of the German 8 Army in East Prussia to do much about the situation. I hadn't pointed to that because I thought it was logic but even I got caught up in it in a previous response on German military abilities!

Basically German 8 Army in East Prussia is dead.

[575]

Pilsudski had contacted the British and French by telegraph through Scandinavia to avoid the messages going through Germany. He had informed the Governments of the state of his nation and that he would be sending emissaries to their countries.

The British and French Ministers to Warsaw had also informed their governments of their situation in Poland and that this situation could be a boost to the war against Germany depending on the negotiations with the Polish emissaries.
The German and Austrian Ministers to Warsaw of course also telegraphed their governments to inform of the situation and the strength of the Polish Armed Forces.
Polish Intelligence of course bugging all telegraph lines out of country to keep an ear to vital information going out of country to be in the know.

(interesting info: the German minister to Warsaw Ulrich Rauscher former Presschief of the German government wanted to ease relations to Poland. The Austrian Republic had since WWI worked to better relation with its neighbors especially Poland and an Austrian paint exebition had opened in Warsaw 10 May 1930 with Polish President and Austrian dignitaries participating. The Austrian minister to Warsaw Nikolaus Post had only been taken up office this year following a change of government which had turned away from Anschluss towards easing realtions with its neighbours particularly Poland with its French alliance!)

Of course the German and Austrian Embassies were expecting the Poles to act such so telegrams that had to pass through the hands of Post Office clerks were kept official and informative on broad lines while the real goodies would be carried by courier in Diplomatic bag to the border by train and then taken across that.
Interestingly Polish newspapers had been citing railway authorities that there had been several breakdowns of railway lines signals and some accidents – as expected certainly on the direct lines to Poznan and the western border and to the southern border south of Wroclaw and Lvov with their raillines to Pressburg and Budapest. Well the diplomatic bag would either wait out the problems being solved or start travelling and hope to get through in time.
The German Embassy had already decided to not use the Enigma machine as there would be no reciever at Berlin. Anyway information had to be encoded before travel undertaken and there had to be serious consideration what to send as volume would also be an issue. Some books of course on developments from 1914 to 1930 just to give the bags volume as only a few sheets would certainly provoke Polish suspicion.

The two minsters had met before acting as both well understood what was upcoming – Rauscher had worked with the German Army Government in occupied Belgium during the Great War and had also served as an NCO during 1918 on the West Front.
Post realized that A-H already would be at line's end with the loss of the majority of its Army and military defeat would be inescapeable and only a matter of time.
Both knew they had staff around that would only like to see a resurgence of their former nations so had to thread cautiously so as not to arouse suspicion as to their loyalties. They also knew their Hugarian colleague míght not share their wievs though on the other hand the Hungarians had been quite friendly towards the Polish as the Hungarian PM Pal Teleki during 1920 had supplied Poland heavily with arms and ammunition and Hungarian volunteers had fought for Poland – it might not be that much of a danger.

[stevep]

  575 ,

   Thanks. Forgot that the Polish state actually reached the sea just west of Danzig and think that by the late 30's they were seeking to build a port and rail link there to remove their dependence on Danzig.

  Interesting details on events in Poland with the assorted Polish, German and Austrian diplomats and possibly other people.  [Merchants, businessmen, people caught just traveling through.  Of course there will be other diplomatic staff from other countries with the Soviet, British, French and Americas likely to want to pass on information to their countries.  Also hadn't realised that 1930 Hungary was friendly to Poland but they could have a hard sell to the Hungarian population as defeat in WWI lead to huge territorial losses for the kingdom of Hungary, albeit most of those containing few actual Hungarians.

  I hadn't though of the Germans seeking to pass copies of the Enigma system to 1914 Berlin and that could be a big boost to 1914 Germany, as well as information on some of the errors they made in WWI OTL.  True the same applies for the great powers but arguably the German errors were more crucial.

  Steve

[575]

Berlin 5 August 1914
Emperor William II was furious demanding 8. Army in East Prussia being relieved of isolation immediately and that intruding Polish territory being reoccupied and the coast be bombarded and returned to German control.

Colonelgeneral v. Moltke informed his Imperial majesty that he had already ordered 4 Corps from the Western Front to the East and that various border units being railed to this new intrusive borderline east of Berlin. Also a new 9. Army HQ would be set up at Berlin.
Admiral Bachmann Chief of the Imperial Admiralty Staff would immediatly order the Baltic Squadron to deliver the requested attack on the Polish shoreline and military/naval installations and ships immidiately.

[stevep]

Oct 17, 2024 19:56:13 GMT 575 said:

Berlin 5 August 1914
Emperor William II was furious demanding 8. Army in East Prussia being relieved of isolation immediately and that intruding Polish territory being reoccupied and the coast be bombarded and returned to German control.

Colonelgeneral v. Moltke informed his Imperial majesty that he had already ordered 4 Corps from the Western Front to the East and that various border units being railed to this new intrusive borderline east of Berlin. Also a new 9. Army HQ would be set up at Berlin.
Admiral Bachmann Chief of the Imperial Admiralty Staff would immediatly order the Baltic Squadron to deliver the requested attack on the Polish shoreline and military/naval installations and ships immidiately.

  Well that definitely means war with Poland and it turning its full attention westward. 

  Not sure what the Germans can send without weakening the offensive in the west.  The only good side for Germany in this might be if it prevents the OTL counter-offensive in Alsace-Lorraine as the French attack stalled with horrendous losses.  However not sure how much attention that would be.

  In terms of the Polish tanks their weak but they will be new to the Germans as will be the air power - both in any ground attack role and in terms of scouting.  The Polish armour would be best used for exploitation of any break-through or counter attack after more traditional forces have defeated the Germans.  Also the Polish should have an information edge in terms of their radio and other such equipment being able to coordinate their forces better.

  The Poles won't be able to do much against the shore bombardment unless they have some subs possibly?

[575]

Oct 17, 2024 22:04:55 GMT stevep said:

Oct 17, 2024 19:56:13 GMT 575 said:

Berlin 5 August 1914
Emperor William II was furious demanding 8. Army in East Prussia being relieved of isolation immediately and that intruding Polish territory being reoccupied and the coast be bombarded and returned to German control.

Colonelgeneral v. Moltke informed his Imperial majesty that he had already ordered 4 Corps from the Western Front to the East and that various border units being railed to this new intrusive borderline east of Berlin. Also a new 9. Army HQ would be set up at Berlin.
Admiral Bachmann Chief of the Imperial Admiralty Staff would immediatly order the Baltic Squadron to deliver the requested attack on the Polish shoreline and military/naval installations and ships immidiately.

  Well that definitely means war with Poland and it turning its full attention westward. 

  Not sure what the Germans can send without weakening the offensive in the west.  The only good side for Germany in this might be if it prevents the OTL counter-offensive in Alsace-Lorraine as the French attack stalled with horrendous losses.  However not sure how much attention that would be.

  In terms of the Polish tanks their weak but they will be new to the Germans as will be the air power - both in any ground attack role and in terms of scouting.  The Polish armour would be best used for exploitation of any break-through or counter attack after more traditional forces have defeated the Germans.  Also the Polish should have an information edge in terms of their radio and other such equipment being able to coordinate their forces better.

  The Poles won't be able to do much against the shore bombardment unless they have some subs possibly?

Actually the 4 Corps to be sent east is the OTL reinforcement that was cut down to three that arrived too late; depending on where drawn from these will require 2 weeks to arrive - OTL v. Moltke ordered 20 August three corps to be sent east, two corps one cavalry division sent off 26 August, first units arriving East Prussia 5 September.

This will of course deduct from German operations in the West - Guards Reserve Corps and 11. Corps being party to 2. and 3. Army both moving into Belgium, 21. Corps to 6. Army in Lorraine/Saarland. I don't see much helping the Germans ITTL as things go much to OTL though the East Front reinforcements will be ordered off 2 weeks early.

The Tanks won't be as much a bonus for the Poles as will air power - the Germans have virtually nil and the Poles have experience using their. There will be an initial Tank shock but then the German will learn to fire at them with field artillery.

Thing is that the Poles will have 1-2 weeks of manuevre depending on avaiting mobilization or just jumping off though probably realities will cut it down a week for units to be ready and orders given.

The Polish intelligence were quite efficient it seems so I'd give them some edge in the sphere.

The Polish subs are still building/fitting out with one becoming operational 1931 and the second the following year - the Baltic is a German lake and East Prussia can be supplied by ship though the Poles may try bombing such.

[575]

Warsaw 5 August 1930
Marshal Pilsudski had met with the Ministers/Envoy's of the major Nations and the neighbouring countries.
The British and French ministers were positive towards speaking with their governments of the possible Polish valuable contribution to war mainly due to the situation by dissimination of information on the Great War/World War and following civil wars in Eastern Europe and Russia.

Raucher of Weimar Germany and Post of Austria had explained their willingness to try influence their former masters but had little hope in doing so.