4 August 1914 - Poland of July 1930, Russia of June 1919 and Imperial Japan of 8 February 1905 ISOT

[stevep]

Oct 19, 2024 14:22:51 GMT 575 said:

Oct 19, 2024 13:05:54 GMT stevep said:

  Ah well it sounds like the German government are going to find out something about the hornet's nest their just unleashed.  Also some details about the history of the war ahead of them, albeit with considerable changes.  They will also get some idea of the enigma machine, which would make their correspondence pretty much unbreakable.  I don't know if your looking that far 'ahead' but that would almost certainly make the Zimmerman telegraph truly secret.

  I would expect the German leadership to double down rather than try and moderate their actions, at least in the short term.  That they can avoid the disaster of 1918 with this additional knowledge to not make the mistakes they did and with a smaller and they would think weaker Poland rather than imperial Russia.  Whether some of the civilian politicians might think differently when they find out some of the details could be a different matter but how strong a united front they might be able to establish and how much power they would have is uncertain, especially in this period.

  One thing here is what do they do about USW?  Do they avoid it or decide to commit to it earlier.  Ditto with gas warfare.  I suspect in both cases they will seek to push ahead with such methods.  How they might change their actions on the western front in 1914 I don't know.  Do they still push for Paris, seek an encircling move as in the initial plan, rein things back a bit to avoid some of the losses.

  I wonder if as news spread Vienna might seek an exit from the war as it leads to total disaster for them.  However that would mean abandoning Germany, which I suspect Franz Joseph and his immediate advisers would be unwilling to do as they would feel both moral commitments on a matter of honour and also because their the only reliable ally Austria has.  Plus there would still be the desire to punish Serbia for the FF assassination.  They will no doubt want to avoid a war with Poland but given the level of hostilities that will be growing quite rapidly that could be difficult.

  I'm also thinking about what the Ottomans do?  They have a military dictatorship that is looking to revive the empire and expand it if they get the chance and here, with Russia in chaos they would see chances to take over parts of the former Soviet empire, especially in the Caucasus region.  At the same time they will hear of how disastrous the war was for the empire, destroying it completely, leading also to a Greek invasion -albeit the news from Poland will report the defeat of the latter. It could go either way.

  Similarly with the most notorious issue of the Turkish involvement in the war, the Armenian genocide, while the OTL excuse isn't there - to excuse the fiasco of the defeat Enver Pasha inflicted on his own army with his attempt at a poorly supplied offensive in NE Anatolia in winter - there is a desire in a number of the Young Turk leaders to 'resolve' the Armenian problem.  Also since it and the later Assyrian massacre are going to become known, although the Armenian one is by far the most famous will become fairly well known there will be pressure from parts of the rest of the world to prevent it but a number of the allied powers would also have an interest in keeping the Turks neutral.  Albeit that the primary reason for desire to keep them neutral, to keep the straits open to Russia is now redundant.  Could be a hell of a lot of things at work here.

Easy bro, easy we are only at day 3 of ISOT!

The telegramme from envoy Rauscher wouldn't be by enigma as the Imperial Germans would have no machine and no codebooks. Its just a telegramme as already mentioned carefully written by Rauscher as he wanted as normal relations with Poland as possible. Rauscher had sent his telegramme day 1 so I don't think he would have much knowledge of the situation around the World.

Agree that he could put in warnings about how the war might go if politics didn't change. Such may well fuel the Imperial Germans to actually try defeat Poland as fast as possible.

The Enigma machine was originally a commercial tool and only later entering state service so I don't see it going to aid the Imperial Germans unless some embassy clerk gets off with the embassy machine in his briefcase - though that may happen.

The Ottomans have by now realized that something is was different in the Caucasus and most possibly eager to take advantage.

Don't know when the Turks may go rampaging on their minorities but its well a possible - if war in Caucasus goes bloody they may take it out in the Armenians fairly early.

Basically I would expect the Polish Army to be on the Seelöwe Hights east of Berlin when the West Front reserves arrive in the city.

a)  I know but thinking ahead. 

b)  I know that Berlin doesn't have the Engima but as I understand it knowledge of its existence was part of the stuff hidden on some papers sneaked into the general books sent from the embassy in Warsaw.  Was assuming that he would send some historical info on what happened in WWII and that Poland is currently from 1930 and hence expect it to be tougher than the 1914 people might think.

c)  Its going to be difficult telling what happens in Turkey.  They could also seek to remove certain Arab figures who formed part of the rebellion.

d)  Well I didn't think the Poles would go that far but its likely to cause a panic in much of eastern Germany.  With their advantages in communictaions and scouting especially it could be a pug for the Germans moving them from there, especially if the forces arriving try any sort of frontal assault.

[575]

Oct 19, 2024 19:47:42 GMT stevep said:

Oct 19, 2024 14:22:51 GMT 575 said:

Easy bro, easy we are only at day 3 of ISOT!

The telegramme from envoy Rauscher wouldn't be by enigma as the Imperial Germans would have no machine and no codebooks. Its just a telegramme as already mentioned carefully written by Rauscher as he wanted as normal relations with Poland as possible. Rauscher had sent his telegramme day 1 so I don't think he would have much knowledge of the situation around the World.

Agree that he could put in warnings about how the war might go if politics didn't change. Such may well fuel the Imperial Germans to actually try defeat Poland as fast as possible.

The Enigma machine was originally a commercial tool and only later entering state service so I don't see it going to aid the Imperial Germans unless some embassy clerk gets off with the embassy machine in his briefcase - though that may happen.

The Ottomans have by now realized that something is was different in the Caucasus and most possibly eager to take advantage.

Don't know when the Turks may go rampaging on their minorities but its well a possible - if war in Caucasus goes bloody they may take it out in the Armenians fairly early.

Basically I would expect the Polish Army to be on the Seelöwe Hights east of Berlin when the West Front reserves arrive in the city.

a)  I know but thinking ahead. 

b)  I know that Berlin doesn't have the Engima but as I understand it knowledge of its existence was part of the stuff hidden on some papers sneaked into the general books sent from the embassy in Warsaw.  Was assuming that he would send some historical info on what happened in WWII and that Poland is currently from 1930 and hence expect it to be tougher than the 1914 people might think.

c)  Its going to be difficult telling what happens in Turkey.  They could also seek to remove certain Arab figures who formed part of the rebellion.

d)  Well I didn't think the Poles would go that far but its likely to cause a panic in much of eastern Germany.  With their advantages in communictaions and scouting especially it could be a pug for the Germans moving them from there, especially if the forces arriving try any sort of frontal assault.

a) Allowed but I wrote that the German Embassy were in two minds about getting the diplomatic bag carried through a confused hostile Poland with closed telegraph lines or wait for the situation to better. Will do an update on it.

b) Ok - that will be in the next opdate.

c) Thanks for the heads up on the Arab rebellion.

d) Prior or during the Czech Crisis Pilsudskij said something about entering Berlin - I had this in mind all the time.

[575]

Warsaw 7 August
The Polish security service had been tracking the German and Austrian Embassy staff since the morning attack on Gdynia and now these out of legation were all round up an moved to their embassy. Police cordoned off both embassies.
Polish staff were picked up at home or at the embassy gate, questioned, frisked, and then let on for their duty.
Telephone and telegraph lines continued being tapped.
It seemed the German Embassy hadn't gotten a courier off with diplomatic bag though the Austrian did who was picked up in the train going for Breslau prior to arriving at the German border – for your own safety sir!

A number of other embassies and consulates were subjected to like measures or at least have a police post at their gate – just in case.

The Japanese Envoy was informed that he'd be able to move around as always and that the Polish Foreign Office would of course be at his and his governments service to bring it up to date on World matters. The Polish military intelligence service had already two days ago informed the Japanese military attaché of business running as usual.

[575]

Can't help thinking ahead on some issues - guess the British and French will be able to supply Serbia via Montenegro though such may be tried barred by the A-H Navy. Add to this difficulties in land transport from the ports Dulcigno and Antivar/Bar though the latter is close to A-H territory things will see difficulties in getting to Serbia.

Another thing is would the Ottomans see the situation ripe for meddeling in the Balkans? So generally a third Balkan War or would this be too outlandish for the Turks as they are bordered in Europe all way by Bulgaria - though mutual hatred could ease the way? Without Imp. Russia around in the Black Sea Goeben and Breslau could be used for defeating the Greeks at sea?

[stevep]

Oct 20, 2024 8:32:48 GMT 575 said:

Warsaw 7 August
The Polish security service had been tracking the German and Austrian Embassy staff since the morning attack on Gdynia and now these out of legation were all round up an moved to their embassy. Police cordoned off both embassies.
Polish staff were picked up at home or at the embassy gate, questioned, frisked, and then let on for their duty.
Telephone and telegraph lines continued being tapped.
It seemed the German Embassy hadn't gotten a courier off with diplomatic bag though the Austrian did who was picked up in the train going for Breslau prior to arriving at the German border – for your own safety sir!

A number of other embassies and consulates were subjected to like measures or at least have a police post at their gate – just in case.

The Japanese Envoy was informed that he'd be able to move around as always and that the Polish Foreign Office would of course be at his and his governments service to bring it up to date on World matters. The Polish military intelligence service had already two days ago informed the Japanese military attaché of business running as usual.

  A very logical move considering Germany is at war with Poland and Austria is their ally.  I'm not sure that they wouldn't simply occupy the German embassy given that state of war.  Possibly repatriate the staff but doing as much as possible to ensure they carry nothing of value with them.  Although in this case they have a lot of valuable information in their heads about the 16 years of 'history' between 1914-30.  As such holding them in their embassy is probably the best bet.

  I would also expect the British and French embassies would be very active during this period seeking to help get the Poles on side - although the Germans have done that for them now - and getting as much info out to their own countries, probably via Lithuania and hence to their homelands via their embassies in Scandinavia.  Although getting 1914 embassies there to recognise staff from an embassy in 1930 Warsaw for a state that as far as their concerned doesn't exist could be fun.   Or possibly southwards to Romania if there's a common border - given that Transylvania is still in Hungarian hands and Bessarabia isn't Romanian either.  Have to look at that map a few pages back.

PS - Checking a couple of historical atlases the best image I can get suggests there might be a common Polish/Romania border in Bukovia - but checking further that was Hungarian until 1919 so there is no route through the south for the allied diplomats that doesn't pass through CP territory.

[575]

Oct 20, 2024 9:52:12 GMT stevep said:

Oct 20, 2024 8:32:48 GMT 575 said:

Warsaw 7 August
The Polish security service had been tracking the German and Austrian Embassy staff since the morning attack on Gdynia and now these out of legation were all round up an moved to their embassy. Police cordoned off both embassies.
Polish staff were picked up at home or at the embassy gate, questioned, frisked, and then let on for their duty.
Telephone and telegraph lines continued being tapped.
It seemed the German Embassy hadn't gotten a courier off with diplomatic bag though the Austrian did who was picked up in the train going for Breslau prior to arriving at the German border – for your own safety sir!

A number of other embassies and consulates were subjected to like measures or at least have a police post at their gate – just in case.

The Japanese Envoy was informed that he'd be able to move around as always and that the Polish Foreign Office would of course be at his and his governments service to bring it up to date on World matters. The Polish military intelligence service had already two days ago informed the Japanese military attaché of business running as usual.

  A very logical move considering Germany is at war with Poland and Austria is their ally.  I'm not sure that they wouldn't simply occupy the German embassy given that state of war.  Possibly repatriate the staff but doing as much as possible to ensure they carry nothing of value with them.  Although in this case they have a lot of valuable information in their heads about the 16 years of 'history' between 1914-30.  As such holding them in their embassy is probably the best bet.

  I would also expect the British and French embassies would be very active during this period seeking to help get the Poles on side - although the Germans have done that for them now - and getting as much info out to their own countries, probably via Lithuania and hence to their homelands via their embassies in Scandinavia.  Although getting 1914 embassies there to recognise staff from an embassy in 1930 Warsaw for a state that as far as their concerned doesn't exist could be fun.   Or possibly southwards to Romania if there's a common border - given that Transylvania is still in Hungarian hands and Bessarabia isn't Romanian either.  Have to look at that map a few pages back.

I think any 1914 Government would have difficulties understanding whats happening in the East and wanting some kind of poof of credentials. The disappearance of some of those 1930 peoples during 4 August 1914 may help in that way.

The Polish - Romanian border is intact from what I can see on maps and there is a railway from Lvov, Poland to Cernauti, Romania.

Seems there was a French military unit in Montenegro at the outbreak of WWI with radio! Let's listen for news from that area.

[stevep]

Oct 20, 2024 10:01:00 GMT 575 said:

Oct 20, 2024 9:52:12 GMT stevep said:

  A very logical move considering Germany is at war with Poland and Austria is their ally.  I'm not sure that they wouldn't simply occupy the German embassy given that state of war.  Possibly repatriate the staff but doing as much as possible to ensure they carry nothing of value with them.  Although in this case they have a lot of valuable information in their heads about the 16 years of 'history' between 1914-30.  As such holding them in their embassy is probably the best bet.

  I would also expect the British and French embassies would be very active during this period seeking to help get the Poles on side - although the Germans have done that for them now - and getting as much info out to their own countries, probably via Lithuania and hence to their homelands via their embassies in Scandinavia.  Although getting 1914 embassies there to recognise staff from an embassy in 1930 Warsaw for a state that as far as their concerned doesn't exist could be fun.   Or possibly southwards to Romania if there's a common border - given that Transylvania is still in Hungarian hands and Bessarabia isn't Romanian either.  Have to look at that map a few pages back.

I think any 1914 Government would have difficulties understanding whats happening in the East and wanting some kind of poof of credentials. The disappearance of some of those 1930 peoples during 4 August 1914 may help in that way.

The Polish - Romanian border is intact from what I can see on maps and there is a railway from Lvov, Poland to Cernauti, Romania.

Seems there was a French military unit in Montenegro at the outbreak of WWI with radio! Let's listen for news from that area.

  Cross posting with my last message so we seem to have different information.  Hope your right.

  The French in Montenegro could be useful - although what the hell their doing there I don't know!  However getting a radio message to them they could understand - i,e, without it being in the clear would be difficult.  Unless you mean French staff from 1930 Polish embassy getting there and then presuming them which again could be fun.  An atlas of WWI or history book with some details would incite reaction but would they believe it.

 Agree that the 1930 people confirming their identities would be an issue but the sudden appearance of a Polish state and then its advance to the outskirts of Berlin is going to promote a lot of interest around the world and demonstrate that something is up.

[575]

Oct 20, 2024 10:10:37 GMT stevep said:

Oct 20, 2024 10:01:00 GMT 575 said:

I think any 1914 Government would have difficulties understanding whats happening in the East and wanting some kind of poof of credentials. The disappearance of some of those 1930 peoples during 4 August 1914 may help in that way.

The Polish - Romanian border is intact from what I can see on maps and there is a railway from Lvov, Poland to Cernauti, Romania.

Seems there was a French military unit in Montenegro at the outbreak of WWI with radio! Let's listen for news from that area.

  Cross posting with my last message so we seem to have different information.  Hope your right.

  The French in Montenegro could be useful - although what the hell their doing there I don't know!  However getting a radio message to them they could understand - i,e, without it being in the clear would be difficult.  Unless you mean French staff from 1930 Polish embassy getting there and then presuming them which again could be fun.  An atlas of WWI or history book with some details would incite reaction but would they believe it.

 Agree that the 1930 people confirming their identities would be an issue but the sudden appearance of a Polish state and then its advance to the outskirts of Berlin is going to promote a lot of interest around the world and demonstrate that something is up.

One of those wonderful things that crop up when You begin digging:

Paris 7 August
The French Colonial Montenegro Detachment report from their radiostation at Mount Lovcen that there are rumours that Poland from the future have arrived in Eastern Europe and have destroyed a large part of the A-H Army in Galizia. Also Imperial Russia is gone and the lands is in Civil War between Imperial troops and Communist rebels. The Detachment is working to get more information.

(scroll down to Contemporary heading)

[575]

Dark matter 7 August
Both French Deuxieme Bureau and British MI reported to their political masters that a radiostation in Eastern Europe identifying itself as Radio Warsaw was broacasting using correct ciphers to both information of the Poland of 1930 from where telegrammes had been recieved from claimed Diplomatic missions.
In Paris this was found verifying in some way the messages from the French Army Contingent in Montenegro.

Something never heard of before was going on in Eastern Europe.
The messages would also tie in with the German activation of the Baltic Fleet as reported by Room 40 the previous evening,
and the message from the German General Staff 5 August detailling four Corps and one Cavalry Division being pulled out of the line and ordered East – a sudden increase in radiotraffic had been noticed by the French regarding four of the seven German Armies facing France and Belgium.

[stevep]

Oct 20, 2024 17:36:46 GMT 575 said:

Dark matter 7 August
Both French Deuxieme Bureau and British MI reported to their political masters that a radiostation in Eastern Europe identifying itself as Radio Warsaw was broacasting using correct ciphers to both information of the Poland of 1930 from where telegrammes had been recieved from claimed Diplomatic missions.
In Paris this was found verifying in some way the messages from the French Army Contingent in Montenegro.

Something never heard of before was going on in Eastern Europe.
The messages would also tie in with the German activation of the Baltic Fleet as reported by Room 40 the previous evening,
and the message from the German General Staff 5 August detailling four Corps and one Cavalry Division being pulled out of the line and ordered East – a sudden increase in radiotraffic had been noticed by the French regarding four of the seven German Armies facing France and Belgium.

  That could be a facility that Britain loses effectiveness soon if 1930 Europe knows of its success.  The Germans could well learn from their up-time people that the British had the ability to listen into radio transmissions even when they couldn't decode them.

  I think the western powers are learning the good side of events in the east - at least as far as their concerned.  The disappearance of the Russian empire, replaced by some chaotic civil war would have worried them greatly.  1930 Poland is significantly smaller and less populated but it could supply a qualitative edge that makes up for a lot of that and I think other forces might be sent east if those withdrawn corps are unable to drive the Poles away from the vicinity of Berlin.  Such a force could also use some raids to disrupt communications and transport in the region which would cause Germany economic and political problems.

  Anyway turning in now.  See how things develop tomorrow.  Many thanks.

[575]

Re: enigma machine. Been reading up on subject and so far I can't find anyplace saying that such was used by the German Foreign Office Embassies. Found one entry here referring to an incident in Warsaw Post Office late 1927 to early 1928 about a package arriving which a German Embassy official tried get returned before opened by Polish Customs officials. The Package was said to contain a radio but contained a commercial Enigma machine - no information of addressee but following search by Polish intelligence the package was delivered to the German Embassy.
Now other searches say that German firms and some Governement offices began the use of Enigma from the early 1920's with German armed forces only getting on the bandwagon by 1925. The military machine differed from the commercial one.

This is of course interesting because the manufacturer of Enigma had German government in some form or other as its major customer but the story doesn't indicate that the parcel was intended for the German Embassy only the intervention of its official got it redirected to the embassy. Being a commercial machine this seems to confirm that. Already Polish intelligence had a commercial Enigma machine on hand but lacked essential info on the operation of the military one. Would be interesting to know who the adressee was of the machine which might disclose why the German embassy would be in on the reception or at least entry of parcel to Warsaw - why the fuss on a commercial machine? Except if it wasn't or the recipient was very "interesting". But the Polish efford in following years to crack military Enigma do indicate it was a commercial machine - which the Poles anyway had cracked so why use it for espionage unless nobody in Germany knew such.

The Polish intelligence kept being fed by French DB information delivered by a German traitor on military enigma which helped them crack it and on the ewe of WWII serve their Allies Britain and France with their info on military Enigma for the British to successfully run Bletchley Park.
The wiki on German Foreign Office cipher service Pers Z S doesn't mention Enigma being used.

If the Germans wanted a military Enigma machine for the Military Attache at Warsaw they could have had it moved there in Diplomatic Bag - not available for the Poles for scrutiny.

(BTW the 'Case S01E14 page' mention the event taking place on a Saturday which the German Embassy official would waste - now back in the day when I began attending school (1967) I had to go to school on Saturdays - only half the other weekdays length but still - only abolished 1972.
In Denmark the workweek was 8 hours a day, six days a week till 1958.
In Germany the 8 hours a day, six days a week was instituted 1918 though a shorter Saturday workday could be agreed to locally as seems the British way according to this. Can't find exact data on Poland but an 8 hour working day.
Is this relevant to the TL - not really but only to show that tales of old can be difficult to verify and to show that those wasting a Saturday wasn't the German Embassy official but the Polish intelligence establishment. And why would the Germans act so stupid unless they wanted to attacht Polish Intelligence to a dead end?)

All just to point to the possible of a military Enigma machine at the German Embassy of Warsaw by 1930.

[575]

Poland 8 August
Marshal Pilsudskij send a long cable to the Emperors of German and A-H.
William II was informed that Poland had retaliated the unprovoked attack upon its shoreline and that more might be forthcoming unless Germany would enter negotiations to end the state of war and regarding mutual coexistance. Poland had in no way wanted this to happen.
Franz Josef was informed that Poland had no quarrel with his Empire and that Galizia had been robbed from him by inexplainable events perhaps even some inexplaiable act of God. Poland didn't wish any conflict with A-H and invited its Government for talks of mutual coexistance.

No answer would be forthcoming from Berlin as measures had already been decided upon and set in motion.

Vienna 8 August
The A-H government present the telegramme to Emperor Franz Joseph who argue that the loss of the Armies in Galizia as well as the oil fields is of such magnitude that he is adverse to entering a war with this Future Poland. Some aircraft have been seen over Slovakia that certainly outdo anything in A-H service.

With the Russian border replaced by this new Poland that direction was as secure as the situation would allow at least A-H wasn't facing the Russian hordes. The Warsaw envoy Post had informed that Imperial Russia be no more but an area in Civil War of Imperial Generals and Communist Revolutionaries that would in three years time would end in a Communist victory.
Thus Serbia would be on its own. And A-H unable to support Germany in the East as its Galizian Armies were gone. Emperor William II would be notified by the latter point.

Though what about Italy? Should 2. Army be held as a central Reserve to clash with Italy should it enter the war along the Entente? According to the breif telegramme of the Warsaw envoy it had been possible to hold off Italy during 1915.
Thus 2. Army should be mainly used to defeat the Serbs and part of it a Reserve should the Italians join the War.

Thus a telegramme informing his Imperial Majesty William II was sent off informing that due to circumstances having lost half its Army A-H would not be able to engage enemy forces to support Germany in the East.
A-H would fight Serbia and guard its borders from possible Italian bellingerency.

***

I'm going to do a few more day by day opdates and then change the timespan covered. The major impact of the German - Polish War will follow and then some longer interval posts.

[stevep]

Oct 24, 2024 17:19:56 GMT 575 said:

Poland 8 August
Marshal Pilsudskij send a long cable to the Emperors of German and A-H.
William II was informed that Poland had retaliated the unprovoked attack upon its shoreline and that more might be forthcoming unless Germany would enter negotiations to end the state of war and regarding mutual coexistance. Poland had in no way wanted this to happen.
Franz Josef was informed that Poland had no quarrel with his Empire and that Galizia had been robbed from him by inexplainable events perhaps even some inexplaiable act of God. Poland didn't wish any conflict with A-H and invited its Government for talks of mutual coexistance.

No answer would be forthcoming from Berlin as measures had already been decided upon and set in motion.

Vienna 8 August
The A-H government present the telegramme to Emperor Franz Joseph who argue that the loss of the Armies in Galizia as well as the oil fields is of such magnitude that he is adverse to entering a war with this Future Poland. Some aircraft have been seen over Slovakia that certainly outdo anything in A-H service.

With the Russian border replaced by this new Poland that direction was as secure as the situation would allow at least A-H wasn't facing the Russian hordes. The Warsaw envoy Post had informed that Imperial Russia be no more but an area in Civil War of Imperial Generals and Communist Revolutionaries that would in three years time would end in a Communist victory.
Thus Serbia would be on its own. And A-H unable to support Germany in the East as its Galizian Armies were gone. Emperor William II would be notified by the latter point.

Though what about Italy? Should 2. Army be held as a central Reserve to clash with Italy should it enter the war along the Entente? According to the breif telegramme of the Warsaw envoy it had been possible to hold off Italy during 1915.
Thus 2. Army should be mainly used to defeat the Serbs and part of it a Reserve should the Italians join the War.

Thus a telegramme informing his Imperial Majesty William II was sent off informing that due to circumstances having lost half its Army A-H would not be able to engage enemy forces to support Germany in the East.
A-H would fight Serbia and guard its borders from possible Italian bellingerency.

***

I'm going to do a few more day by day opdates and then change the timespan covered. The major impact of the German - Polish War will follow and then some longer interval posts.

  Well that's good for Poland and for Austria but not good for Germany.  I very much suspect given his character Wilhelm will be angry at both the Polish response and what he will see as Vienna's 'betrayal.  Of course if the latter arrives before he responds to the former he might change his mind but I think that's unlikely.  I assume there was a deadline for a Germany response as Poland can't afford to wait too long.

  Which is probably a good thing for the western powers as well as Germany if it was prepared to accept its eastern losses and Austrian neutrality could probably win although it would be bloody.

  I suspect that in TTL Italy will stay neutral unless something changes Austria's position.  I doubt Italy would feel like potentially fighting Austria on its own, even with the losses Austria has taken and the incentive for the allies to want Italy in the war has largely disappeared.  - I doubt Italy would be willing to send troops to France and it can't really grab any German colonies so there's nothing really for them to gain from a war with Germany alone so while it might be politically useful for the allies to have Italy as a co-belligerent but there's not really great pressure on the allies to offer say Tunisia to Italy or for Italy to join a conflict they have nothing to really gain from.

  There might be a chance that Berlin might seek to win Italy over but with Austria neutral I don't think Rome would find any such idea attractive as they would be faced with a massive allied naval superiority which would be very bad for them.

[575]

Oct 24, 2024 22:05:21 GMT stevep said:

Oct 24, 2024 17:19:56 GMT 575 said:

Poland 8 August
Marshal Pilsudskij send a long cable to the Emperors of German and A-H.
William II was informed that Poland had retaliated the unprovoked attack upon its shoreline and that more might be forthcoming unless Germany would enter negotiations to end the state of war and regarding mutual coexistance. Poland had in no way wanted this to happen.
Franz Josef was informed that Poland had no quarrel with his Empire and that Galizia had been robbed from him by inexplainable events perhaps even some inexplaiable act of God. Poland didn't wish any conflict with A-H and invited its Government for talks of mutual coexistance.

No answer would be forthcoming from Berlin as measures had already been decided upon and set in motion.

Vienna 8 August
The A-H government present the telegramme to Emperor Franz Joseph who argue that the loss of the Armies in Galizia as well as the oil fields is of such magnitude that he is adverse to entering a war with this Future Poland. Some aircraft have been seen over Slovakia that certainly outdo anything in A-H service.

With the Russian border replaced by this new Poland that direction was as secure as the situation would allow at least A-H wasn't facing the Russian hordes. The Warsaw envoy Post had informed that Imperial Russia be no more but an area in Civil War of Imperial Generals and Communist Revolutionaries that would in three years time would end in a Communist victory.
Thus Serbia would be on its own. And A-H unable to support Germany in the East as its Galizian Armies were gone. Emperor William II would be notified by the latter point.

Though what about Italy? Should 2. Army be held as a central Reserve to clash with Italy should it enter the war along the Entente? According to the breif telegramme of the Warsaw envoy it had been possible to hold off Italy during 1915.
Thus 2. Army should be mainly used to defeat the Serbs and part of it a Reserve should the Italians join the War.

Thus a telegramme informing his Imperial Majesty William II was sent off informing that due to circumstances having lost half its Army A-H would not be able to engage enemy forces to support Germany in the East.
A-H would fight Serbia and guard its borders from possible Italian bellingerency.

***

I'm going to do a few more day by day opdates and then change the timespan covered. The major impact of the German - Polish War will follow and then some longer interval posts.

  Well that's good for Poland and for Austria but not good for Germany.  I very much suspect given his character Wilhelm will be angry at both the Polish response and what he will see as Vienna's 'betrayal.  Of course if the latter arrives before he responds to the former he might change his mind but I think that's unlikely.  I assume there was a deadline for a Germany response as Poland can't afford to wait too long.

  Which is probably a good thing for the western powers as well as Germany if it was prepared to accept its eastern losses and Austrian neutrality could probably win although it would be bloody.

  I suspect that in TTL Italy will stay neutral unless something changes Austria's position.  I doubt Italy would feel like potentially fighting Austria on its own, even with the losses Austria has taken and the incentive for the allies to want Italy in the war has largely disappeared.  - I doubt Italy would be willing to send troops to France and it can't really grab any German colonies so there's nothing really for them to gain from a war with Germany alone so while it might be politically useful for the allies to have Italy as a co-belligerent but there's not really great pressure on the allies to offer say Tunisia to Italy or for Italy to join a conflict they have nothing to really gain from.

  There might be a chance that Berlin might seek to win Italy over but with Austria neutral I don't think Rome would find any such idea attractive as they would be faced with a massive allied naval superiority which would be very bad for them.

A-H have to choose what they are able to handle. With the keeping out of Italy and its lust for A-H lands along the Adriatic there would be no other way.

I don't see Germany accepting any losses in the East - remember somebody writing of East Prussia as "Sacred Lands" to Williams line as it was the lands that made them Kings.

Do agree on Italy - Germany may try to entice it but its idea of using the Italian Army in A-L for Operation Bär was a no go with the Italians so likely an Entante proposal of shuttling Italian troops to eastern France would be so too. EDIT: Germany offering Italy French Med coast and Tunesia would probably make as little impact as it did OTL.

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Poland 8 August
Polish Intelligence hadn't been resting on its laurels.
Biuro Szyfrów/Chiper Buro had kept working on the Enigma just in case but the major efford had been to go through the 1919-21 War with the Soviets to document the positions of August 1919 and the obtained intelligence during the war and its impact on it.
The main output being that this 1919 Soviets were to be dealt with in due time. The Armies faced during 1919 had been lost to the Soviets as the Polish Republic of 1930 had landed during a lull in the campaign thus a large part of the Soviet troops in Kresy had been lost.
That would aid the Lithuanians final struggle and potentially also the Latvians and Estonians and their Western Volunteers. The various Ukrainian fractions would see a breathing space and the White offensives of Denikin in the South and Yudenich west of Estonia would unfold. Kolchak in Sibiria might join in with some weight if his Czech and Japanese allies were still around however much should be considered unknown in Russia.
Suffice to say at the moment the Soviets were no threat to Poland itself. The threat would come from Imperial Germany – possibly in the form of a 9. Army as during 1914 pulled from the West and railed East.

OTL it had taken a week to prepare the first two Corps and the Cavalry Division to relocate and entrain and these would be available 10 days later in the East. Something perhaps a couple of days earlier in the present situation due to lessened distance to travel should be expected.
Radio intercepts had shown that another two Corps had also been ordered east – these should be expected in theatre at least a week later.
This timetable would give the Army time to mobilize reserves and deploy those within the eastern parts of Germany.

To increase the intelligence activity regarding Germany Intelligence asked for being party to any form of legations send abroad. Copenhagen was much desired as the German cable telegraphy went that way due to the British having cut the German Trans-Atlantic Cables 4 August. Marshal Pilsudski noted this request. Stockholm would be a lesser post but interesting in regard to the situation in Finland which seemed to have become independent. With a common possible foe across the border Finland might be interested in sharing intelligence.

France and Britain were certainly interesting. France not least as it had been a very friendly ally OTL and Britain because it was one of the major players in the War.
Romania was another interesting nation with its shared border with Russia and proximity to the Ottoman Empire.