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Post by eurowatch on Aug 25, 2018 17:51:22 GMT
Taiwan won't declare itself a Sovereign nation because that would mean aknowledging that there are two Chinas, something both Taiwan and China agree on is not the case. That's the agreement they have with modern China, though. I highly doubt that it'd be the same with its 1950s counterpart, which they would obviously oppose. steffen I doubt that the West--however lacking compared to the uptimers--is stupid enough to declare war on an Asia-Pacific 60+ years more advanced than them. If they're not crazy enough to directly engage the USSR, then surely they won't try to pick a fight with the newly arrived 2018 powers. Yes, I do agree that in this situation Taiwan may go towards a more... exciting future.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Aug 25, 2018 18:14:11 GMT
That's the agreement they have with modern China, though. I highly doubt that it'd be the same with its 1950s counterpart, which they would obviously oppose. steffen I doubt that the West--however lacking compared to the uptimers--is stupid enough to declare war on an Asia-Pacific 60+ years more advanced than them. If they're not crazy enough to directly engage the USSR, then surely they won't try to pick a fight with the newly arrived 2018 powers. Yes, I do agree that in this situation Taiwan may go towards a more... exciting future. Wonder if it will also be as a nuclear power.
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Post by eurowatch on Aug 25, 2018 19:37:34 GMT
Yes, I do agree that in this situation Taiwan may go towards a more... exciting future. Wonder if it will also be as a nuclear power. They do have the capability to develop nuclear weapons or at least enriching uranium/ and or plutionium within a few months so it is not completly out of the Question.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Aug 25, 2018 20:16:38 GMT
Wonder if it will also be as a nuclear power. They do have the capability to develop nuclear weapons or at least enriching uranium/ and or plutionium within a few months so it is not completly out of the Question.
I do remember reading that after they lost their position as the formal China in the early 70's there was an attempt to make a separate Taiwanese nuclear deterrent but the US found out and quickly blocked it. So they should definitely have the capacity.
Also agree that, especially if Mao joins the Korean conflict, you could well see a Taiwanese attempt to 'restore' nationalist rule of China.
One thing that comes to mind is that Japanese opposition to their own nuclear weapons could be drastically reduced if either or both of S Korea and Taiwan are developing nukes and doubly so if they feel that down-time great powers [i.e. China, Russia, US] are unfriendly.
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steffen
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Post by steffen on Aug 31, 2018 13:32:05 GMT
Taiwan won't declare itself a Sovereign nation because that would mean aknowledging that there are two Chinas, something both Taiwan and China agree on is not the case. That's the agreement they have with modern China, though. I highly doubt that it'd be the same with its 1950s counterpart, which they would obviously oppose. steffen I doubt that the West--however lacking compared to the uptimers--is stupid enough to declare war on an Asia-Pacific 60+ years more advanced than them. If they're not crazy enough to directly engage the USSR, then surely they won't try to pick a fight with the newly arrived 2018 powers. Well... i have less optimism in this. For UK - they see India not as full worthy member... esp., not one who DOMINATE them fully. That is the basic racism of that time, esp. from colonial powers to former "colonies"... here UK -> India changed from "high developted WW2-winner" to "poor helpless pup who could only pray that mighty india don´t want to take revenge for the crimes of colonialism" for the USA and japa - similar. Don´t forget that - with beginning in 1937 were was a lot of anti-japanese propaganda in the USA; heated by ww2 and the brutal mistreatment of american pow by the evil japanese empire. Then they loose 100-200k soldiers and the former "colony" of General McArthur is suddenly world power nr.2 ... that is a bit much after only 5 years... from an US-point they have any right to come back, invade japan, take all technology they want, plunder the knowledge and disarm them.
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Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on Aug 31, 2018 13:55:11 GMT
That's the agreement they have with modern China, though. I highly doubt that it'd be the same with its 1950s counterpart, which they would obviously oppose. steffen I doubt that the West--however lacking compared to the uptimers--is stupid enough to declare war on an Asia-Pacific 60+ years more advanced than them. If they're not crazy enough to directly engage the USSR, then surely they won't try to pick a fight with the newly arrived 2018 powers. Well... i have less optimism in this. For UK - they see India not as full worthy member... esp., not one who DOMINATE them fully. That is the basic racism of that time, esp. from colonial powers to former "colonies"... here UK -> India changed from "high developted WW2-winner" to "poor helpless pup who could only pray that mighty india don´t want to take revenge for the crimes of colonialism" for the USA and japa - similar. Don´t forget that - with beginning in 1937 were was a lot of anti-japanese propaganda in the USA; heated by ww2 and the brutal mistreatment of american pow by the evil japanese empire. Then they loose 100-200k soldiers and the former "colony" of General McArthur is suddenly world power nr.2 ... that is a bit much after only 5 years... from an US-point they have any right to come back, invade japan, take all technology they want, plunder the knowledge and disarm them. Hmm. It appears that there's great uncertainty about how the US will respond to the ISOT. Perhaps an uptimer...demonstration will be necessary to ensure the downtimers don't attack them.
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steffen
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Post by steffen on Aug 31, 2018 14:15:26 GMT
Well... i have less optimism in this. For UK - they see India not as full worthy member... esp., not one who DOMINATE them fully. That is the basic racism of that time, esp. from colonial powers to former "colonies"... here UK -> India changed from "high developted WW2-winner" to "poor helpless pup who could only pray that mighty india don´t want to take revenge for the crimes of colonialism" for the USA and japa - similar. Don´t forget that - with beginning in 1937 were was a lot of anti-japanese propaganda in the USA; heated by ww2 and the brutal mistreatment of american pow by the evil japanese empire. Then they loose 100-200k soldiers and the former "colony" of General McArthur is suddenly world power nr.2 ... that is a bit much after only 5 years... from an US-point they have any right to come back, invade japan, take all technology they want, plunder the knowledge and disarm them. Hmm. It appears that there's great uncertainty about how the US will respond to the ISOT. Perhaps an uptimer...demonstration will be necessary to ensure the downtimers don't attack them. Well... i cannot see USA of 1950, after 100 or 200k of their forces vanished will ignore this. If the country that suddenly appears is japan, next to germany the most hated nation in the USA, esp. with the racim about "little yellow subhumans", i cannot see em ignoring them. So either they come in with armed forces from day 1 or at last from day 6, after their (insulting) demands are ignored by japan of 2018. The japanese of 2018 get the big chance to gain ressources "for free" together with the other 2018ers, against racistic states, they liberate colonial slaves (basically from the dutch, belgians, french, british, spanish, portuguise) and for some little toys get the most ressources on the planet. Ressources they need to fuel their economy. Sorry, i cannot see a single nation of 2018 that would NOT take this chance. Esp., if they could really do something good. The same for australia or the other democraties of 2018. To make it more real: If you are an african-american or mexian-american of 2018, would you want to live in India of 2018 or in the USA of 1950? Just asking...
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Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on Aug 31, 2018 15:43:20 GMT
Hmm. It appears that there's great uncertainty about how the US will respond to the ISOT. Perhaps an uptimer...demonstration will be necessary to ensure the downtimers don't attack them. Well... i cannot see USA of 1950, after 100 or 200k of their forces vanished will ignore this. If the country that suddenly appears is japan, next to germany the most hated nation in the USA, esp. with the racim about "little yellow subhumans", i cannot see em ignoring them. So either they come in with armed forces from day 1 or at last from day 6, after their (insulting) demands are ignored by japan of 2018. The japanese of 2018 get the big chance to gain ressources "for free" together with the other 2018ers, against racistic states, they liberate colonial slaves (basically from the dutch, belgians, french, british, spanish, portuguise) and for some little toys get the most ressources on the planet. Ressources they need to fuel their economy. Sorry, i cannot see a single nation of 2018 that would NOT take this chance. Esp., if they could really do something good. The same for australia or the other democraties of 2018. To make it more real: If you are an african-american or mexian-american of 2018, would you want to live in India of 2018 or in the USA of 1950? Just asking... I think it's fair to say that the 2018 nations--with their trade partners and foreign assets gone--will resort to annexation, as you said. Where they'll look for resources to supplement their staggered economies, I'm not sure about. As far as living in '50s America, hell no. The fact that I'm a "degenerate uptimer" in their eyes is enough to disuade me from going back--I'd be screwed no matter what race, religion or gender I was.
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steffen
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Post by steffen on Aug 31, 2018 17:04:11 GMT
Well... i cannot see USA of 1950, after 100 or 200k of their forces vanished will ignore this. If the country that suddenly appears is japan, next to germany the most hated nation in the USA, esp. with the racim about "little yellow subhumans", i cannot see em ignoring them. So either they come in with armed forces from day 1 or at last from day 6, after their (insulting) demands are ignored by japan of 2018. The japanese of 2018 get the big chance to gain ressources "for free" together with the other 2018ers, against racistic states, they liberate colonial slaves (basically from the dutch, belgians, french, british, spanish, portuguise) and for some little toys get the most ressources on the planet. Ressources they need to fuel their economy. Sorry, i cannot see a single nation of 2018 that would NOT take this chance. Esp., if they could really do something good. The same for australia or the other democraties of 2018. To make it more real: If you are an african-american or mexian-american of 2018, would you want to live in India of 2018 or in the USA of 1950? Just asking... I think it's fair to say that the 2018 nations--with their trade partners and foreign assets gone--will resort to annexation, as you said. Where they'll look for resources to supplement their staggered economies, I'm not sure about. As far as living in '50s America, hell no. The fact that I'm a "degenerate uptimer" in their eyes is enough to disuade me from going back--I'd be screwed no matter what race, religion or gender I was. Well, i do not trust any modern country in such situation 100%. Because - modern democracies need a lot of ressources. In such scenario they got em basically "for free"... all they need is to support the liberation movements with supplies, medical stuff and logistics in their push for liberation from evil french/british tyranny... then they make contracts that secure them the ressource rich areas... just say india make a deal with the congo, that they help em to "remove evil belgain supression"... nobody would say "stop evil indians to liberate the congo", right? if the congo then give concessions for copper and to build up dams for electrifications, turbines (from india), all for "free" - but they just accept that india could gain ressources to fair prices, who would say that india would act cruel? Nobody in 1950, but that the ressources now are 100times more worth, they do not know. India protect its interests, "take" strategic ressources... the same the japanese, australians, taiwanese or south koreans would do, right? If they work smart, they claim most of the oil in the oil-rich areas, but they give modern infrastructure (the african, arabian or south american countries could only buy in these modern countries ![:)](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/smiley.png) ) for ressources, still paying higher-than-actual-prices. Okay, a barrel oil for 5 US-Dollars is not much in our times, but in 1950? It is much more as they would got from the others. It is a win-win-loose-business. They win, the modern countries win but USA loose, because they could not do the profit they did OTL. Basically UK and USA are the big loosers, maybe also the Dutch-british shell company. The modern countries not even need to be villiains... they avoid asbestos, do not use DDT. etc... because they know that these stuff is toxic... but they make lots and lots of money, with nukes they could defend their "ressource rich areas" and "deals".... if the russians try to make some red troubles, make clear that the precisison missles could destroy red cities with ease, so keep your intrigoues in your zone of influence... in the big game suddenly stronger, smarter and "knowing" players come in, take you out and dominate the game. For Japan this mean they NEED nukes, to protect themselves. Basically the same for South Korea, Taiwan and australia... with nukes and modern missles they are untouchables and they could take the needed ressources to build up their "economic" empires All they need to do is to clear who "take" what... the best for them and the world is if they do it together... against the USA; the colonial empires and naturally against the USSR.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Aug 31, 2018 21:15:46 GMT
I think we need to clarify whether Steffen's talking about 1950's great power would seek to impose themselves on the 2018 powers by force, which some, most probably the US [because its lost the top power slot its just obtained] or France [because of frustration about its defeat and humiliation in WWII] might try until they realise how hopeless that is or whether some/all of the 2018 powers are going to embark on massive conquest sprees? Both are potential problem but their different in their causes and effects.
Also we shouldn't forget that the 2018 powers will have problems obtaining the resources they need simply because of the lack of infrastructure and production so they may not be able to engage in massive military operations against other powers. Especially since their unlikely to be united in their actions.
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steffen
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Post by steffen on Sept 1, 2018 11:36:35 GMT
I think we need to clarify whether Steffen's talking about 1950's great power would seek to impose themselves on the 2018 powers by force, which some, most probably the US [because its lost the top power slot its just obtained] or France [because of frustration about its defeat and humiliation in WWII] might try until they realise how hopeless that is or whether some/all of the 2018 powers are going to embark on massive conquest sprees? Both are potential problem but their different in their causes and effects.
Also we shouldn't forget that the 2018 powers will have problems obtaining the resources they need simply because of the lack of infrastructure and production so they may not be able to engage in massive military operations against other powers. Especially since their unlikely to be united in their actions.
Well, the 2018ers (exception India) need just nukes... they suffer terrible after their national reserves (esp. in oil) is consumed, but as long as they have enough plutonium to build nukes, they could defend themselves from any hostile (speak UK, french, russion or USA) move. My focus for ALL of them is to capture/secure the supply-line with ressources, as coal, oil, gas, needed ores (australia could propably be some important source, esp. with its HIGH capacity)... so i see the 2018ers will meet and agree to each other that they will take the major part of the "for them known" ressources... basically they do the same as the imperial europeans did with africa in the beginning of the second colonialism phase. So expect the african colonies of UK, france, spain and portugal get shared, they will make deals that make sure that everyone get enough from needed stuff from the others. Then they enforce the "independence", esp. with UK and france that is cheap and easy. If india threaten to flat the whole british isles, if they do not give these countries NOW independence and - knowing how stubborn UK could be - after a nice nuke, flying from India directly to London, flatten the centre of the city - to make a point even the most stubborn briton will easily understand - all 1950-states understood that the "newcomers" are no pussycats but die-hard-states who have zero problems to terminate the others, if forced to do so. (we could discuss the need of such extreme methods, but i think they will do something the british parliament will understood. Hopefully no nuke, but maybe a phonecall from New-Dehli with the british ambassador and the missle, fired from india destroy scapa with a small nuke? What ever... it need to be powerfull enough to make a point not only to UK but ALL colonial enslavers, but also the USA and russia. That will create brown trousers worldwide (at last in the "powerful" states).... then the new idenpendent states get favourite deals (building infrastructure, benefictional medicine supply, what ever) for needed ressources. THen the 2018ers will build FAST (thanks to korean yards) the needed infrastructures and start to build up ports there. I mentioned the need to "discuss" things with stalin. If he "understands" that communist rebells mean that all soviet cities get nuked he will keep em on a short lash... very short lash. After 5 years - in 1955 you have this world: India is nr.1, soley superpower. Korea (unified) and Japan are the nr.2 and 3, followed by the others, they all form the "modern alliance of democracy", able to terminate ANY other state on the planet, if it try something stupid. The former colonies get improvements (and honestly they could overtake their former masters quickly - think about nigeria getting technological support by say Japan, it could be in 20 years far ahead in anything compared to france or UK). Sure, the 2018ers need customers, so cheapish products for backyarded europeans and americans will be needed, basically the 2018ers will be the saud-princes of the world, with india beeing - in raw numbers the nr1. That is quite sure, the 2018ers have no archenemy-ship to each other, but all are in the focus of others or had suffered terrible by OTL events. The USA will be - with UK, france and the other former colonial masters a second block, propably with a devasted (lacking wirtschaftswunder) FRG, that could easily be unified because the USSR will loose any control about its Warsaw pact, if the 2018ers prefer single nations that could develop (to buy the modern stuff from them) Rump china and the USSR will be a third block, propably suffering from lack of acceptance - if the others in the world got informations about these criminals massacring millions and millions of normal people - esp. in china (85 million deaths by Mao alone). China could get a modern state quickly, by Taiwan - who will have a strong interest to unify china as a modern democratic state. In this it could run into problems with india, or the other democratic 2018ers... japan is out, because in china of 1950 nobody would buy a shit from japan (quite understandable).
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Sept 1, 2018 18:31:11 GMT
I think we need to clarify whether Steffen's talking about 1950's great power would seek to impose themselves on the 2018 powers by force, which some, most probably the US [because its lost the top power slot its just obtained] or France [because of frustration about its defeat and humiliation in WWII] might try until they realise how hopeless that is or whether some/all of the 2018 powers are going to embark on massive conquest sprees? Both are potential problem but their different in their causes and effects.
Also we shouldn't forget that the 2018 powers will have problems obtaining the resources they need simply because of the lack of infrastructure and production so they may not be able to engage in massive military operations against other powers. Especially since their unlikely to be united in their actions.
Well, the 2018ers (exception India) need just nukes... they suffer terrible after their national reserves (esp. in oil) is consumed, but as long as they have enough plutonium to build nukes, they could defend themselves from any hostile (speak UK, french, russion or USA) move. My focus for ALL of them is to capture/secure the supply-line with ressources, as coal, oil, gas, needed ores (australia could propably be some important source, esp. with its HIGH capacity)... so i see the 2018ers will meet and agree to each other that they will take the major part of the "for them known" ressources... basically they do the same as the imperial europeans did with africa in the beginning of the second colonialism phase. So expect the african colonies of UK, france, spain and portugal get shared, they will make deals that make sure that everyone get enough from needed stuff from the others. Then they enforce the "independence", esp. with UK and france that is cheap and easy. If india threaten to flat the whole british isles, if they do not give these countries NOW independence and - knowing how stubborn UK could be - after a nice nuke, flying from India directly to London, flatten the centre of the city - to make a point even the most stubborn briton will easily understand - all 1950-states understood that the "newcomers" are no pussycats but die-hard-states who have zero problems to terminate the others, if forced to do so. (we could discuss the need of such extreme methods, but i think they will do something the british parliament will understood. Hopefully no nuke, but maybe a phonecall from New-Dehli with the british ambassador and the missle, fired from india destroy scapa with a small nuke? What ever... it need to be powerfull enough to make a point not only to UK but ALL colonial enslavers, but also the USA and russia. That will create brown trousers worldwide (at last in the "powerful" states).... then the new idenpendent states get favourite deals (building infrastructure, benefictional medicine supply, what ever) for needed ressources. THen the 2018ers will build FAST (thanks to korean yards) the needed infrastructures and start to build up ports there. I mentioned the need to "discuss" things with stalin. If he "understands" that communist rebells mean that all soviet cities get nuked he will keep em on a short lash... very short lash. After 5 years - in 1955 you have this world: India is nr.1, soley superpower. Korea (unified) and Japan are the nr.2 and 3, followed by the others, they all form the "modern alliance of democracy", able to terminate ANY other state on the planet, if it try something stupid. The former colonies get improvements (and honestly they could overtake their former masters quickly - think about nigeria getting technological support by say Japan, it could be in 20 years far ahead in anything compared to france or UK). Sure, the 2018ers need customers, so cheapish products for backyarded europeans and americans will be needed, basically the 2018ers will be the saud-princes of the world, with india beeing - in raw numbers the nr1. That is quite sure, the 2018ers have no archenemy-ship to each other, but all are in the focus of others or had suffered terrible by OTL events. The USA will be - with UK, france and the other former colonial masters a second block, propably with a devasted (lacking wirtschaftswunder) FRG, that could easily be unified because the USSR will loose any control about its Warsaw pact, if the 2018ers prefer single nations that could develop (to buy the modern stuff from them) Rump china and the USSR will be a third block, propably suffering from lack of acceptance - if the others in the world got informations about these criminals massacring millions and millions of normal people - esp. in china (85 million deaths by Mao alone). China could get a modern state quickly, by Taiwan - who will have a strong interest to unify china as a modern democratic state. In this it could run into problems with india, or the other democratic 2018ers... japan is out, because in china of 1950 nobody would buy a shit from japan (quite understandable).
Problems I see with this viewpoint. a) The 2018 states, especially the big and developed ones are so far above everybody in 1950 that their prime possible threats are each other. Coupled with numerous disputes between them this means its unlikely you will have some sort of grand coalition of them to colonise the rest of Asia and Africa. Especially since their all likely to want to cherry pick the best bits. India for instance has by far the best access to the ME region and would really need/want as much of its oil as possible. Even through this is likely to lead to bitter unrest from Pakistan west to Egypt say.
b) Such a policy would anyway cause considerable resentment not just in the former great powers but also in the colonised areas who are likely to resent the loss of any chance of real independence for the foreseeable future.
c) Yes there will be resentment in parts of the west at the forced conquest of its colonies but not as great as your considering given the historical and new circumstances. I suspect this is driven more by your desire to see the countries that defeated Germany 'punished' than real probabilities. Hence your suggest that London be nuked and the earlier ones that the US would go to war with Japan and suffer nuclear attacks.
d) Stalin won't take overt action to challenge the 2018's control of most of the world but its going to be difficult for anyone to argue for mass nuking of the SU due to pro-communist insurgences in their new possessions.
e) I still think your overlooking the difficulties of the sort of wave of conquests your suggesting, simply from the logistical and infrastructure problems the 2018ers would face. Modern container ships or tankers for instance would be unable to dock at most/all of the 1950 ports and the sheer demand for oil for instance in 2018 would massively dwarf 1950 production, especially in the old world hemisphere.
f) I think Taiwan may well unite most of China under its control but its going to be a long and costly operation. Probably consuming much of their resources for at least a decade and then they would have to bring down-time China up to speed.
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steffen
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Post by steffen on Sept 2, 2018 18:48:43 GMT
Well, the 2018ers (exception India) need just nukes... they suffer terrible after their national reserves (esp. in oil) is consumed, but as long as they have enough plutonium to build nukes, they could defend themselves from any hostile (speak UK, french, russion or USA) move. My focus for ALL of them is to capture/secure the supply-line with ressources, as coal, oil, gas, needed ores (australia could propably be some important source, esp. with its HIGH capacity)... so i see the 2018ers will meet and agree to each other that they will take the major part of the "for them known" ressources... basically they do the same as the imperial europeans did with africa in the beginning of the second colonialism phase. So expect the african colonies of UK, france, spain and portugal get shared, they will make deals that make sure that everyone get enough from needed stuff from the others. Then they enforce the "independence", esp. with UK and france that is cheap and easy. If india threaten to flat the whole british isles, if they do not give these countries NOW independence and - knowing how stubborn UK could be - after a nice nuke, flying from India directly to London, flatten the centre of the city - to make a point even the most stubborn briton will easily understand - all 1950-states understood that the "newcomers" are no pussycats but die-hard-states who have zero problems to terminate the others, if forced to do so. (we could discuss the need of such extreme methods, but i think they will do something the british parliament will understood. Hopefully no nuke, but maybe a phonecall from New-Dehli with the british ambassador and the missle, fired from india destroy scapa with a small nuke? What ever... it need to be powerfull enough to make a point not only to UK but ALL colonial enslavers, but also the USA and russia. That will create brown trousers worldwide (at last in the "powerful" states).... then the new idenpendent states get favourite deals (building infrastructure, benefictional medicine supply, what ever) for needed ressources. THen the 2018ers will build FAST (thanks to korean yards) the needed infrastructures and start to build up ports there. I mentioned the need to "discuss" things with stalin. If he "understands" that communist rebells mean that all soviet cities get nuked he will keep em on a short lash... very short lash. After 5 years - in 1955 you have this world: India is nr.1, soley superpower. Korea (unified) and Japan are the nr.2 and 3, followed by the others, they all form the "modern alliance of democracy", able to terminate ANY other state on the planet, if it try something stupid. The former colonies get improvements (and honestly they could overtake their former masters quickly - think about nigeria getting technological support by say Japan, it could be in 20 years far ahead in anything compared to france or UK). Sure, the 2018ers need customers, so cheapish products for backyarded europeans and americans will be needed, basically the 2018ers will be the saud-princes of the world, with india beeing - in raw numbers the nr1. That is quite sure, the 2018ers have no archenemy-ship to each other, but all are in the focus of others or had suffered terrible by OTL events. The USA will be - with UK, france and the other former colonial masters a second block, propably with a devasted (lacking wirtschaftswunder) FRG, that could easily be unified because the USSR will loose any control about its Warsaw pact, if the 2018ers prefer single nations that could develop (to buy the modern stuff from them) Rump china and the USSR will be a third block, propably suffering from lack of acceptance - if the others in the world got informations about these criminals massacring millions and millions of normal people - esp. in china (85 million deaths by Mao alone). China could get a modern state quickly, by Taiwan - who will have a strong interest to unify china as a modern democratic state. In this it could run into problems with india, or the other democratic 2018ers... japan is out, because in china of 1950 nobody would buy a shit from japan (quite understandable).
Problems I see with this viewpoint. a) The 2018 states, especially the big and developed ones are so far above everybody in 1950 that their prime possible threats are each other. Coupled with numerous disputes between them this means its unlikely you will have some sort of grand coalition of them to colonise the rest of Asia and Africa. Especially since their all likely to want to cherry pick the best bits. India for instance has by far the best access to the ME region and would really need/want as much of its oil as possible. Even through this is likely to lead to bitter unrest from Pakistan west to Egypt say.
b) Such a policy would anyway cause considerable resentment not just in the former great powers but also in the colonised areas who are likely to resent the loss of any chance of real independence for the foreseeable future.
c) Yes there will be resentment in parts of the west at the forced conquest of its colonies but not as great as your considering given the historical and new circumstances. I suspect this is driven more by your desire to see the countries that defeated Germany 'punished' than real probabilities. Hence your suggest that London be nuked and the earlier ones that the US would go to war with Japan and suffer nuclear attacks.
d) Stalin won't take overt action to challenge the 2018's control of most of the world but its going to be difficult for anyone to argue for mass nuking of the SU due to pro-communist insurgences in their new possessions.
e) I still think your overlooking the difficulties of the sort of wave of conquests your suggesting, simply from the logistical and infrastructure problems the 2018ers would face. Modern container ships or tankers for instance would be unable to dock at most/all of the 1950 ports and the sheer demand for oil for instance in 2018 would massively dwarf 1950 production, especially in the old world hemisphere.
f) I think Taiwan may well unite most of China under its control but its going to be a long and costly operation. Probably consuming much of their resources for at least a decade and then they would have to bring down-time China up to speed.
Ah, another fantasy-study by you. a.) the only logical point, a possible solution. My points against it: ALL 2018ers need ressources now, they are not UK (so there is some hope they will not betray the others the second after an agreement (if you can be nasty, i can do the same)) and they will face the most larger and military significant nations of 1950 as enemies. So my opinion - with enough time between 1945 and 2018 (that is a problem for japan, if it would be otherwise) this hate is no longer a real problem, the other nations have no troubles with each other. Basically they all need ressources, there are ENOUGH ressources for every 2018er-state and they need each other to keep their advantage. India has a lot good starting points, but because they are next to pakistan and because pakistan is a muslime nation there is a huge chance that military interests in India (as OTL) could make life for indians much more difficulty to speak to the arabian (muslimes) to gain what they want. b.) Nope, you failed to understand the beautifulness of my idea. the 2018ers do not invade the colonial areas, they liberate em (from french, spanish, portuguise and mostly from british tyranny). They have all the evidence - on nice video tapes, that make clear what scum the colonial masters had been (OTL), that they will suffer if they work any more a second with them (for algeria or vietnam there is much more "fun" in it), so they offer them support for ressources. Also i mentioned FAIR money for the ressources... money these nations could earn by selling ressources - not to evil british or american companies but "good" indian, japanese or australian ones. There is no invasion and conquering... that is the british method of enslaving, raping, killing natives. The 2018ers are much better (in the real sense)... they offer the (small) population a way into wealth and power, they give em democracy and freedom. In 1950 there are so many by UK suppressed colonies or countries - think about iraq, persia (iran) as two non-colonial countries that got by them into troubles, if the 2018ers give em a fair chance they do both. Kick the evil colonials in the balls, let em suffer and develop them. A win-win-win-loose-situation. The 2018ers win, the former enslaved or suppressed nations win, the world itself win and only the colonial "masters" loose. I can live with this result. You seem to be angry about it? What does you anger? That the empire is broken 10-15 years earlier? that they have no grip on ressource rich areas? Well, sometimes you win, sometimes you loose. IN that scenario you loose. c.) i do not know what you take, but please reduce the dosis. Germany is not relevant in this ASB-scenario. India would - if necessary strike against London, because it is the evil empire that would loose most colonies and their "grip"... so if one target is logical, it is London. Russia and Stalin - well that is logical, too. We know exactly what Stalin was, an evil monster, massacring 30-40 million russians (these are outside the around 30 millions the germans killed in ww2)... the 2018ers knows that also. Here they face the "monster" itself. Esp. the communist support for "red" revolutions in africa and other ressource-rich areas that costed so many lives. They will act in their interest, to make clear to any red tsar that the game is lost - now. What is better as to make this point with nukes that are vastly superior to anything russia may have ready... even better they should destroy the ability of russia to produce nukes, the same for the USA. (again - in their interests) Germany is irrelevant, in fact would suffer terrible by that ASB-scenario, because it has no real chance to recover in the Wirtschaftswunder, because Korea and Japan would allways build much better, more efficent and cheaper products. It seems you need some dosis of realism. Here it is the pacific democracies who will be the target of evil 1950ers regimes, USA, USSR, france and UK to name the most powerful. Really, you have a negative fixation on things... I look into a scenario, read the starting point and calculate the most realistic way for the nations involved. India -> UK, Japan -> USA, because USA would strike against Japan... France, UK -> 2018ers because they want ressources from "then-former-colonies". Russia - well Red Tsar Stalin would try to destabilize the newcomers base, esp. in new liberated former colonies. Thats it. Make another scenario and you get different results. d.) well - India or Japan (once it has decided it need nukes to defend its interests) would not discuss stuff with russia. They will KNOW if russia try something. If india save billions of dollars for 2 nice 5mt-Nukes that wipe out Moscau and Leningrad to make a point about "interfer in our zone of interests that is - all of the world outside your borders" that is cheaper for them. I have no high opinion about human beeings and their ability to be "good". In case of russia it would be propably the ONLY way to make a point. Otherwise the communist scum would destabilize the "new order"... something these 2018ers could not risk. So i do not bet on a "we talk to Mr.Massmurdering Nr.2 in the world" but some "clear" signal. Maybe not moscau, but some other city? Or some facility in that the russians produce nukes? What ever... take it as picture. But i bet, if india nuke a russian factory in URAL, stalin keep it secret. If Leningrad is some hot radioactive crater, he cannot do so. Is that cruel? Hell yes, but i don´t talk about what I would do, i talk about the MOST logical moves to contain communist activities fueld by russia or its allies. Even the "loss of the WP-states" could be enforced. Russia could no longer hope to "take out the evil west" with India and co beeing so strong. So if they want more "happy" customers, nothing else is important, they could enforce the retreat of the red army out of these states. I mentioned germany as an early unified state - not to be big or strong, but to recover to turn into a customer of electronics or other stuff produced in these states. Either indian alluminium, korean radios, japanese cars... that is the important stuff. Outside the USA, france, UK and Russia everybody would benefit. That is the good thing. The big 4 get reduced in power (to nil in case of france or uk, to local powers in case of russia and to a falling nr.3, later nr4 in case of the USA), but the rest of the world BENEFIT. e.) yes and no. I never said it is easy - i wrote that the 2018ers will work WITH the former colonials, make deals that are beneficial for both and then they start expanding ports, etc. Priority Nr1 is oil - so persia and iraq, Quwait will get visits early, i wrote about 5-15 years untill they have established a route of production for their economies. In that time they need a powerfull military, because UK, russia and USA could be stubbornly try to attack (and face huge casulties if they try), but who else would have a need to harm them? They promise modern technology, healthcare, wealth... they are good, the "old 1950er-powers" are racistic (USA), brutal (france, slaughtering millions of algerian natives is no evidence of any positive effect) or still trying to control them (UK). The others would also use em, but they offer wealth (for the majority of the people of these countries), education, a better system. They also know who is a mad dictator and who is not (they have the knowledge), so they could avoid the most failures of OTL. f.) Taiwan has a huge problem, but they will be rich enough to solve it. They need to remove the communist cadres, maybe together with Korea. The koreans i know seem to be nice guys, so i don´t see em dreaming of a conquered china.. You lost the most important thing in such scenario: the 2018ers want to make money, want to avoid the worst enviroment scandals, to use their knowledge smart and to contain hostile nations. In 1950 the "only" hostile ones who would try to attack the 2018ers are USSR, USA, UK, France, maybe China/North Korea. All others are to weak, unarmed or not interested. Basically you give the world a chance to avoid the biggest mistakes of the last 70 years and you could turn other nations into the leaders of the world. Australia could be the "USA of that scenario", Taiwan turn china in a working democracy, Japan is the "brain" of the world, Korea is the producer... If they open the markets of - otl suppressed - nations, they also do more good things. Think about persia fully developted, no radical islamics, no iraq dicators, but happy wealthy people. That is one possible way in such scenario... If London is a radiocative desert because the british do not accept the new ranking, so what? I never wrote that India would attack UK or Russia, i wrote they would defend themselves from their hostile moves. Just not in a way the british or russians know from the reciving end (from the acting one they did it for hundreds and hundreds of years).
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Post by eurowatch on Sept 2, 2018 18:53:27 GMT
Problems I see with this viewpoint. a) The 2018 states, especially the big and developed ones are so far above everybody in 1950 that their prime possible threats are each other. Coupled with numerous disputes between them this means its unlikely you will have some sort of grand coalition of them to colonise the rest of Asia and Africa. Especially since their all likely to want to cherry pick the best bits. India for instance has by far the best access to the ME region and would really need/want as much of its oil as possible. Even through this is likely to lead to bitter unrest from Pakistan west to Egypt say.
b) Such a policy would anyway cause considerable resentment not just in the former great powers but also in the colonised areas who are likely to resent the loss of any chance of real independence for the foreseeable future.
c) Yes there will be resentment in parts of the west at the forced conquest of its colonies but not as great as your considering given the historical and new circumstances. I suspect this is driven more by your desire to see the countries that defeated Germany 'punished' than real probabilities. Hence your suggest that London be nuked and the earlier ones that the US would go to war with Japan and suffer nuclear attacks.
d) Stalin won't take overt action to challenge the 2018's control of most of the world but its going to be difficult for anyone to argue for mass nuking of the SU due to pro-communist insurgences in their new possessions.
e) I still think your overlooking the difficulties of the sort of wave of conquests your suggesting, simply from the logistical and infrastructure problems the 2018ers would face. Modern container ships or tankers for instance would be unable to dock at most/all of the 1950 ports and the sheer demand for oil for instance in 2018 would massively dwarf 1950 production, especially in the old world hemisphere.
f) I think Taiwan may well unite most of China under its control but its going to be a long and costly operation. Probably consuming much of their resources for at least a decade and then they would have to bring down-time China up to speed.
Ah, another fantasy-study by you. a.) the only logical point, a possible solution. My points against it: ALL 2018ers need ressources now, they are not UK (so there is some hope they will not betray the others the second after an agreement (if you can be nasty, i can do the same)) and they will face the most larger and military significant nations of 1950 as enemies. So my opinion - with enough time between 1945 and 2018 (that is a problem for japan, if it would be otherwise) this hate is no longer a real problem, the other nations have no troubles with each other. Basically they all need ressources, there are ENOUGH ressources for every 2018er-state and they need each other to keep their advantage. India has a lot good starting points, but because they are next to pakistan and because pakistan is a muslime nation there is a huge chance that military interests in India (as OTL) could make life for indians much more difficulty to speak to the arabian (muslimes) to gain what they want. b.) Nope, you failed to understand the beautifulness of my idea. the 2018ers do not invade the colonial areas, they liberate em (from french, spanish, portuguise and mostly from british tyranny). They have all the evidence - on nice video tapes, that make clear what scum the colonial masters had been (OTL), that they will suffer if they work any more a second with them (for algeria or vietnam there is much more "fun" in it), so they offer them support for ressources. Also i mentioned FAIR money for the ressources... money these nations could earn by selling ressources - not to evil british or american companies but "good" indian, japanese or australian ones. There is no invasion and conquering... that is the british method of enslaving, raping, killing natives. The 2018ers are much better (in the real sense)... they offer the (small) population a way into wealth and power, they give em democracy and freedom. In 1950 there are so many by UK suppressed colonies or countries - think about iraq, persia (iran) as two non-colonial countries that got by them into troubles, if the 2018ers give em a fair chance they do both. Kick the evil colonials in the balls, let em suffer and develop them. A win-win-win-loose-situation. The 2018ers win, the former enslaved or suppressed nations win, the world itself win and only the colonial "masters" loose. I can live with this result. You seem to be angry about it? What does you anger? That the empire is broken 10-15 years earlier? that they have no grip on ressource rich areas? Well, sometimes you win, sometimes you loose. IN that scenario you loose. c.) i do not know what you take, but please reduce the dosis. Germany is not relevant in this ASB-scenario. India would - if necessary strike against London, because it is the evil empire that would loose most colonies and their "grip"... so if one target is logical, it is London. Russia and Stalin - well that is logical, too. We know exactly what Stalin was, an evil monster, massacring 30-40 million russians (these are outside the around 30 millions the germans killed in ww2)... the 2018ers knows that also. Here they face the "monster" itself. Esp. the communist support for "red" revolutions in africa and other ressource-rich areas that costed so many lives. They will act in their interest, to make clear to any red tsar that the game is lost - now. What is better as to make this point with nukes that are vastly superior to anything russia may have ready... even better they should destroy the ability of russia to produce nukes, the same for the USA. (again - in their interests) Germany is irrelevant, in fact would suffer terrible by that ASB-scenario, because it has no real chance to recover in the Wirtschaftswunder, because Korea and Japan would allways build much better, more efficent and cheaper products. It seems you need some dosis of realism. Here it is the pacific democracies who will be the target of evil 1950ers regimes, USA, USSR, france and UK to name the most powerful. Really, you have a negative fixation on things... I look into a scenario, read the starting point and calculate the most realistic way for the nations involved. India -> UK, Japan -> USA, because USA would strike against Japan... France, UK -> 2018ers because they want ressources from "then-former-colonies". Russia - well Red Tsar Stalin would try to destabilize the newcomers base, esp. in new liberated former colonies. Thats it. Make another scenario and you get different results. d.) well - India or Japan (once it has decided it need nukes to defend its interests) would not discuss stuff with russia. They will KNOW if russia try something. If india save billions of dollars for 2 nice 5mt-Nukes that wipe out Moscau and Leningrad to make a point about "interfer in our zone of interests that is - all of the world outside your borders" that is cheaper for them. I have no high opinion about human beeings and their ability to be "good". In case of russia it would be propably the ONLY way to make a point. Otherwise the communist scum would destabilize the "new order"... something these 2018ers could not risk. So i do not bet on a "we talk to Mr.Massmurdering Nr.2 in the world" but some "clear" signal. Maybe not moscau, but some other city? Or some facility in that the russians produce nukes? What ever... take it as picture. But i bet, if india nuke a russian factory in URAL, stalin keep it secret. If Leningrad is some hot radioactive crater, he cannot do so. Is that cruel? Hell yes, but i don´t talk about what I would do, i talk about the MOST logical moves to contain communist activities fueld by russia or its allies. Even the "loss of the WP-states" could be enforced. Russia could no longer hope to "take out the evil west" with India and co beeing so strong. So if they want more "happy" customers, nothing else is important, they could enforce the retreat of the red army out of these states. I mentioned germany as an early unified state - not to be big or strong, but to recover to turn into a customer of electronics or other stuff produced in these states. Either indian alluminium, korean radios, japanese cars... that is the important stuff. Outside the USA, france, UK and Russia everybody would benefit. That is the good thing. The big 4 get reduced in power (to nil in case of france or uk, to local powers in case of russia and to a falling nr.3, later nr4 in case of the USA), but the rest of the world BENEFIT. e.) yes and no. I never said it is easy - i wrote that the 2018ers will work WITH the former colonials, make deals that are beneficial for both and then they start expanding ports, etc. Priority Nr1 is oil - so persia and iraq, Quwait will get visits early, i wrote about 5-15 years untill they have established a route of production for their economies. In that time they need a powerfull military, because UK, russia and USA could be stubbornly try to attack (and face huge casulties if they try), but who else would have a need to harm them? They promise modern technology, healthcare, wealth... they are good, the "old 1950er-powers" are racistic (USA), brutal (france, slaughtering millions of algerian natives is no evidence of any positive effect) or still trying to control them (UK). The others would also use em, but they offer wealth (for the majority of the people of these countries), education, a better system. They also know who is a mad dictator and who is not (they have the knowledge), so they could avoid the most failures of OTL. f.) Taiwan has a huge problem, but they will be rich enough to solve it. They need to remove the communist cadres, maybe together with Korea. The koreans i know seem to be nice guys, so i don´t see em dreaming of a conquered china.. You lost the most important thing in such scenario: the 2018ers want to make money, want to avoid the worst enviroment scandals, to use their knowledge smart and to contain hostile nations. In 1950 the "only" hostile ones who would try to attack the 2018ers are USSR, USA, UK, France, maybe China/North Korea. All others are to weak, unarmed or not interested. Basically you give the world a chance to avoid the biggest mistakes of the last 70 years and you could turn other nations into the leaders of the world. Australia could be the "USA of that scenario", Taiwan turn china in a working democracy, Japan is the "brain" of the world, Korea is the producer... If they open the markets of - otl suppressed - nations, they also do more good things. Think about persia fully developted, no radical islamics, no iraq dicators, but happy wealthy people. That is one possible way in such scenario... If London is a radiocative desert because the british do not accept the new ranking, so what? I never wrote that India would attack UK or Russia, i wrote they would defend themselves from their hostile moves. Just not in a way the british or russians know from the reciving end (from the acting one they did it for hundreds and hundreds of years). Steffen, you have been banned for one week because of Your constant hijacking of threats about Germany or ISOTS to Write Your rants. Repeated offences Will result in being banned permanently.
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Zyobot
Fleet admiral
Just a time-traveling robot stranded on Earth.
Posts: 17,292
Likes: 7,245
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Post by Zyobot on Sept 11, 2018 14:39:53 GMT
This thread hasn't changed for over a week now. Anyone else want to contribute?
I can start; I've seen some argue that we uptimers are living in a Third/Fourth Industrial Revolution marked by automation, 3D printing, quantum computing, cyber-physical systems and the internet of things, just to name a few.
Considering that they barely know TV at this point, what will the downtimers make of this assessment--especially the STEM professionals?
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