Operation Sea Lion Orbats and Discussion Thread

[lordroel]

Operation Sea Lion Orbats and Discussion Thread

We all know about the German plan to launch Operation Sea Lion in 1940, here is the Alternate Timelines official thread for Operation Sea Lion Orbats and Discussion Thread. 

From Wikipedia (Operation Sea Lion)

Operation Sea Lion, also written as Operation Sealion[2][3] (German: Unternehmen Seelöwe), was Nazi Germany's code name for the plan for an invasion of the United Kingdom during the Battle of Britain in the Second World War. Following the Fall of France, Adolf Hitler, the German Führer and Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces, hoped the British government would seek a peace agreement and he reluctantly considered invasion only as a last resort if all other options failed. As a precondition, he specified the achievement of both air and naval superiority over the English Channel and the proposed landing sites, but the German forces did not achieve either at any point during the war, and both the German High Command and Hitler himself had serious doubts about the prospects for success. Nevertheless both the German Army and Navy undertook a major programme of preparations for an invasion: training troops, developing specialised weapons and equipment, and modifying transport vessels. A large number of river barges and transport ships were gathered together on the Channel coast, but with Luftwaffe aircraft losses increasing in the Battle of Britain and no sign that the Royal Air Force had been defeated, Hitler postponed Sea Lion indefinitely on 17 September 1940 and it was never put into action.

List of useful links regarding Sea Lion

Various RN Home Commands and Fleets OOB

RN Ships damaged or sunk by enemy action 1939-1945

RN Minelaying operations - because I'm sure you want the Germans to have the best possible invasion routes. Best for us.

Admiralty War Diaries - what looks like a ton of very granular detail.

Battle of Britain - with monthly loss stats

Maps - mostly from British perspective, and sadly nothing for hypothetical campaigns.

CIA captured Sealion plans -  CIA published an exhaustive analysis of captured Sealion plans.

What if: Operation Sealion, summary of an exercise held in 1974 - Alternate Timelines thread about a  exercise held in 1974.

Orbats of the British and German forces

Hitler's Directives 

Directive No.16

Directive No.17

Kriegsmarine 

List of Vessels at Embarkation Ports

List of Vessels converted and collected in the designated assembly areas for Operation Sealion

List of Vessels available for Operation Sealion

Intelligence Report on the Royal Navy

Fleet List

Royal Navy

Intelligence Report on German Navy 

Fleet List

[James G]

We really aren't a Sealion forum, are we!?

He's an idea which came to me. It doesn't involve Sealion working but could maybe improve the chances of it being tried.
Avoid the whole Norwegian campaign. Germany suffers fewer naval losses.
How does this possibly play into things?

[lordroel]

Jun 15, 2019 19:06:31 GMT James G said:

We really aren't a Sealion forum, are we!?

On the other hand we have not been effected as much with the Sea Lion fatigue as what has happen on a other forum, so far there is only one major Sea Lion thread on the forum called:

What if: Operation Sealion, summary of an exercise held in 1974.

[stevep]

Jun 15, 2019 19:06:31 GMT James G said:

We really aren't a Sealion forum, are we!?

He's an idea which came to me. It doesn't involve Sealion working but could maybe improve the chances of it being tried.
Avoid the whole Norwegian campaign. Germany suffers fewer naval losses.
How does this possibly play into things?

  Well that would give the Germans a considerable increase in naval strength proportionally to what they had after Norway.  However British and French losses would be avoided as well and Germany wouldn't have bases in Norway to threaten Britain from the west, which was a concern in Britain. 

  Most of all however the RN is so much stronger that the KM that Sealion is likely to be an even bigger disaster that Norway was if its tried as their likely to lose a hell of a lot more.  Especially since unlike in Norway their supply lines would be contested throughout the conflict, so their navy can't simply appear, unload troops and then the survivors disappear - not without receiving criticism from the other forces and Hitler's wrath.

  The down side for Britain of a Sealion that would turn into the almost inevitable German disaster is that would it deter Hitler from Barbarossa?  While the ground losses would be relatively small compared to the entire army it would probably include a number of important units and the moral impact is likely to be bad.  Furthermore the Luftwaffe would be creamed if it tried to support the invasion.  Even Hitler might be persuaded to 'delay' that operation which could rapidly become permanent.  Also there are suggestions that the permanent loss of so many of the Rhine barges that would be used for much of the invasion and are very unlikely to survive would have a serious impact on the German economy.

[lordroel]

Jun 16, 2019 9:16:31 GMT stevep said:

Jun 15, 2019 19:06:31 GMT James G said:

We really aren't a Sealion forum, are we!?

He's an idea which came to me. It doesn't involve Sealion working but could maybe improve the chances of it being tried.
Avoid the whole Norwegian campaign. Germany suffers fewer naval losses.
How does this possibly play into things?

  Well that would give the Germans a considerable increase in naval strength proportionally to what they had after Norway.  However British and French losses would be avoided as well and Germany wouldn't have bases in Norway to threaten Britain from the west, which was a concern in Britain. 

  Most of all however the RN is so much stronger that the KM that Sealion is likely to be an even bigger disaster that Norway was if its tried as their likely to lose a hell of a lot more.  Especially since unlike in Norway their supply lines would be contested throughout the conflict, so their navy can't simply appear, unload troops and then the survivors disappear - not without receiving criticism from the other forces and Hitler's wrath.

  The down side for Britain of a Sealion that would turn into the almost inevitable German disaster is that would it deter Hitler from Barbarossa?  While the ground losses would be relatively small compared to the entire army it would probably include a number of important units and the moral impact is likely to be bad.  Furthermore the Luftwaffe would be creamed if it tried to support the invasion.  Even Hitler might be persuaded to 'delay' that operation which could rapidly become permanent.  Also there are suggestions that the permanent loss of so many of the Rhine barges that would be used for much of the invasion and are very unlikely to survive would have a serious impact on the German economy.

A sea Lion means no Crete as the Germans will use op all their Fallschirmjägers.

[stevep]

Jun 15, 2019 20:29:50 GMT lordroel said:

Jun 15, 2019 19:06:31 GMT James G said:

We really aren't a Sealion forum, are we!?

On the other hand we have not been effected as much with the Sea Lion fatigue as what has happen on a other forum, so far there is only one major Sea Lion thread on the forum called:

What if: Operation Sealion, summary of an exercise held in 1974.

  I think its less of fatigue that a jokey meme - at least a decade or so back when I was on AH.  Someone would mention what if Germany successfully invaded Britain in summer 1940 and you would get people chiming in with comments like, heretic, burn him at the stake etc, but in a light hearted mode, albeit the the new authour might not realise that at first.  Then someone would probably explain to him that the scenario had been analysed so often and it was seen as pretty much impossible for the Germans to end up with anything other than a crushing defeat.

  There was an Italian guy called Michelle I think it was who did a very good TL on the issue.  He made a few changes that meant the LW especially suffered less losses in France and Norway, although IIRC that reduced its effectiveness against the RAF in the BoB.  They did 'win' the latter in terms of forcing the RAF to withdraw northwards somewhat out of range and the Germans launched an invasion.  Basically the LW gets totally overloaded trying to support the invasion and defend the supply lines, especially its fighters, while the RN does a hell of a lot of damage.  One of the old R class BBs is effectively loss in the channel on a bombardment mission, suffering damage but beaches itself near one of the landing zones and continues to pound the German positions until its ammo is exhausted is a point I remember.  Think your still a member there so you might be able to find it and a very good read.

[lordroel]

Jun 16, 2019 9:25:45 GMT stevep said:

Jun 15, 2019 20:29:50 GMT lordroel said:

On the other hand we have not been effected as much with the Sea Lion fatigue as what has happen on a other forum, so far there is only one major Sea Lion thread on the forum called:

What if: Operation Sealion, summary of an exercise held in 1974.

  I think its less of fatigue that a jokey meme - at least a decade or so back when I was on AH.  Someone would mention what if Germany successfully invaded Britain in summer 1940 and you would get people chiming in with comments like, heretic, burn him at the stake etc, but in a light hearted mode, albeit the the new authour might not realise that at first.  Then someone would probably explain to him that the scenario had been analysed so often and it was seen as pretty much impossible for the Germans to end up with anything other than a crushing defeat.

That is why i created this thread, to give members who want to discuse Sea Lion as much information and one single thread to discuses it in as i doubt we need 100 different threads for one single operation.

[markp]

lordroel ,James G ,stevep ,

[markp]

The Germans may have been able to land and establish a bridgehead but they would not have been able to supply it. Even if the Royal Navy had been neutralized around the UK forces stationed around the empire would have returned home. The German naval assets would not have been strong enough to keep the supply lines open and the German ship building capacity would not have been able to replace the losses. In addition FDR would have sent more aid in the form of ships and supplies to the UK in the event of an invasion assuming he was unable to get an out right declaration of war out of congress.

[lordroel]

Jan 19, 2020 18:43:18 GMT markp said:

lordroel ,James G ,stevep ,

A reason for this tagging, it is not something that is considered nice to do without any reason.

[markp]

mistake first time doing this

[lordroel]

Jan 19, 2020 18:49:07 GMT markp said:

mistake first time doing this

No problem just pointing it out.

[James G]

Jan 19, 2020 18:48:10 GMT markp said:

The Germans may have been able to land and establish a bridgehead but they would not have been able to supply it. Even if the Royal Navy had been neutralized around the UK forces stationed around the empire would have returned home. The German naval assets would not have been strong enough to keep the supply lines open and the German ship building capacity would not have been able to replace the losses. In addition FDR would have sent more aid in the form of ships and supplies to the UK in the event of an invasion assuming he was unable to get an out right declaration of war out of congress.

I agree.
I assumed that if the circumstances were judged right, and Hitler forced the issue through following his 'genius' with other times he was proved right, it could be tried.
History would be a harsh judge on the failure!

[markp]

If the US did get involved in the war and Sea Lion was a disaster for Hitler he may not have felt strong enough to attack the USSR in 1941 and as a result the Soviet forces stationed in the east would have stayed there threatening Japan so Pearl Harbor may not happen. WW2 may have ended up as a war between Germany and the US/UK. Later if Germany is loosing Stalin would probably pile on to grab some low hanging prizes.

[lordroel]

Jan 22, 2020 0:28:51 GMT markp said:

If the US did get involved in the war and Sea Lion was a disaster for Hitler he may not have felt strong enough to attack the USSR in 1941 and as a result the Soviet forces stationed in the east would have stayed there threatening Japan so Pearl Harbor may not happen. WW2 may have ended up as a war between Germany and the US/UK. Later if Germany is loosing Stalin would probably pile on to grab some low hanging prizes.

Hitler might not even declare war if Sea Lion had happen and Germany mange to fail in it, it would lost him a lot of troops, planes and ships, but then again we are speaking of Hitler, so you never know.