nomommsen
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Post by nomommsen on Aug 17, 2024 22:06:56 GMT
Fun fact: According to the diaries of Harry Graf (count) Kessler, the idea for the Zimmermann telegram actually was by a certain Kemnitz - Hans Arthur von Kemnitz, I guess. Zimmermann just was so stupid to send it.
Not just to send it but to admit to it afterwards.  ... once again ... Seemingly nobody ever cared why ZimmermanN admitted his authorship so 'easily' and quickly.
In short: - When publicised in Berlin nbody knew how the press could have learned of. The diplomatic cables of the US of A that were used were still rendered uncompromised. Therefore it was concluded it could only be a spy whos position they could not know. Had Zimmermann denied authorship said spy he could have easily uncovered this as a ly making his and the german diplomacies position only worse.
- The content wasn't regarded as 'offensive' as it was - and even further still is - propagandistically 'simplyfied' for the common reader and public. But for that it would have to be know how the german-japanese affaisrs wwere interwined with the mexican-japanese affairs (aka an emissary of Panch Villa trying to buy weapons from Japan). ... and one should really read the whole of the message which in almost a british manner sounds as if one could trust in but in reality was promising nothing.
- In a way ... the early 'answer' to its publication gave Zimmermann the opportunity to not only explain its intentsion to the german politician (were he answered first) but also to clarify its rather ... 'defensive' meant character opposite to the US of A as it should only show what could happen if the US of A participates in the European war to become also an american war. Therefore indirectly proposing to avoid the latter with staying out of europe
If interested in some 'real' information about the whole affair ... please sent the notoriuos Barbara Tuchman sorry effort to the loo as emergency toilet paper. The probably best researched (my mayor critic on almost every work of Mrs. Tuchman I came across so far) work I would recommend to everyone : The Zimmernmann Telegram Intelligence, Diplomacy and America's Entry into World War 1 by Thomas Boghardt
... and for everyone interested and armed with some potent translator ... here's somthing more in detail about Hans Arthur von Kemnitz
edit: inserted the 'full' link ... dunno why it didn't worked ...
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Aug 18, 2024 11:44:47 GMT
Not just to send it but to admit to it afterwards. ... once again ... Seemingly nobody ever cared why ZimmermanN admitted his authorship so 'easily' and quickly.
In short: - When publicised in Berlin nbody knew how the press could have learned of. The diplomatic cables of the US of A that were used were still rendered uncompromised. Therefore it was concluded it could only be a spy whos position they could not know. Had Zimmermann denied authorship said spy he could have easily uncovered this as a ly making his and the german diplomacies position only worse.
- The content wasn't regarded as 'offensive' as it was - and even further still is - propagandistically 'simplyfied' for the common reader and public. But for that it would have to be know how the german-japanese affaisrs wwere interwined with the mexican-japanese affairs (aka an emissary of Panch Villa trying to buy weapons from Japan). ... and one should really read the whole of the message which in almost a british manner sounds as if one could trust in but in reality was promising nothing.
- In a way ... the early 'answer' to its publication gave Zimmermann the opportunity to not only explain its intentsion to the german politician (were he answered first) but also to clarify its rather ... 'defensive' meant character opposite to the US of A as it should only show what could happen if the US of A participates in the European war to become also an american war. Therefore indirectly proposing to avoid the latter with staying out of europe
If interested in some 'real' information about the whole affair ... please sent the notoriuos Barbara Tuchman sorry effort to the loo as emergency toilet paper. The probably best researched (my mayor critic on almost every work of Mrs. Tuchman I came across so far) work I would recommend to everyone : Intelligence, Diplomacy and America's Entry into World War 1 by Thomas Boghardt
... and for everyone interested and armed with some potent translator ...
Interesting thanks. I've wondered, and asked in the past why Zimmermann admitted the telegraph and its contents but that gives a logical basis for him doing so.
I think there are problems with those links as they loop back to this thread.
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nomommsen
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Post by nomommsen on Aug 18, 2024 14:13:03 GMT
...
I think there are problems with those links as they loop back to this thread.
... having changed the post ... dunno why it didn't worked ... |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Aug 18, 2024 15:07:39 GMT
...
I think there are problems with those links as they loop back to this thread.
... having changed the post ... dunno why it didn't worked ...
Thanks. Both links working now.
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ewellholmes
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Post by ewellholmes on Aug 19, 2024 3:40:48 GMT
Wilson had made a serious attempt to end the war in late 1916 and early 1917, and was open to what seemed a clear-if more limited than they otherwise wanted-German victory. Luxembourg annexed, border adjustments with France (Generally understood as Briey-Longwy and the remainder of the Vosges Mountains brought into Germany for defensive purposes) and the lands of the Ober-Ost (Congress Poland, Lithuania and Courland) conceded, while the Germans would also get their treaties with Romania and Serbia recognized. Can't remember what the plan was for Africa, but probably status-quo antebellum.
I suspect once it becomes clear the Americans aren't coming, the French and the Russians will rapidly drop out in April-May of 1917, and then the British follow suit before their whole position comes undone. The above would likely be the basis of the peace, with the Germans able to demand some extra concessions given the strategic situation increasingly leaning in their favor. Perhaps a demilitarized Belgium at the least, perhaps with German annexations up to the Meuse too? Congo being handed over seems a given, as does France now also losing Dahomey to Togoland and French Congo being joined with German Kamerun to get a continuous Mittel-Afrika empire. Perhaps the Germans are also able to extract Moldova and add it to Romania to mollify them somewhat, in addition to Kars to the Ottomans.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Aug 19, 2024 20:18:17 GMT
Wilson had made a serious attempt to end the war in late 1916 and early 1917, and was open to what seemed a clear-if more limited than they otherwise wanted-German victory. Luxembourg annexed, border adjustments with France (Generally understood as Briey-Longwy and the remainder of the Vosges Mountains brought into Germany for defensive purposes) and the lands of the Ober-Ost (Congress Poland, Lithuania and Courland) conceded, while the Germans would also get their treaties with Romania and Serbia recognized. Can't remember what the plan was for Africa, but probably status-quo antebellum. I suspect once it becomes clear the Americans aren't coming, the French and the Russians will rapidly drop out in April-May of 1917, and then the British follow suit before their whole position comes undone. The above would likely be the basis of the peace, with the Germans able to demand some extra concessions given the strategic situation increasingly leaning in their favor. Perhaps a demilitarized Belgium at the least, perhaps with German annexations up to the Meuse too? Congo being handed over seems a given, as does France now also losing Dahomey to Togoland and French Congo being joined with German Kamerun to get a continuous Mittel-Afrika empire. Perhaps the Germans are also able to extract Moldova and add it to Romania to mollify them somewhat, in addition to Kars to the Ottomans.
a) Would this have also included the planned annexations and puppytization of Belgium and its colony? Or further restrictions on France to make it even more defenceless against a further German attack? I doubt that would go down well in Paris regardless of what Wilson thought. Also once the suggested trade embargo on European goods is made the Germans are going to sense blood and likely to demand even more. Those were German plans long before the discussions Wilson tried to organise.
b) Why should the French and Russians drop out then? With increasing German demands its less an less in their interests to submit. What could well happen if the revolution still occurs in Russian in Feb/Mar that the PG decides it can't attack but must only defend until its reformed the army and restored general order. This presents a significant problem for Germany, especially as it would make the stance of their puppet, Lenin look distinctly disloyal.
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nomommsen
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Post by nomommsen on Aug 20, 2024 21:17:29 GMT
Aug 19, 2024 5:40:48 GMT 2 ewellholmes said:Would you be able to find out where from you once gained this knowledge. ... would really appreciate it.
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nomommsen
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Post by nomommsen on Aug 20, 2024 21:33:13 GMT
... The above would likely be the basis of the peace, with the Germans able to demand some extra concessions given the strategic situation increasingly leaning in their favor. Perhaps a demilitarized Belgium at the least, perhaps with German annexations up to the Meuse too? Congo being handed over seems a given, as does France now also losing Dahomey to Togoland and French Congo being joined with German Kamerun to get a continuous Mittel-Afrika empire. Perhaps the Germans are also able to extract Moldova and add it to Romania to mollify them somewhat, in addition to Kars to the Ottomans. Congo ... is offten 'offered' as the bargain token for the british to keep the germans away from the channel coast as some belgian posessions would seem them worth the price for a british achievement in this situation.
To made the tout easier to swallow ... the germans could 'offer' some idea the german Secretary for the colonie had: some kind of a 'revival' of the Congo-Freetrade-Agreement zone. All the different colonies of Mitterlafrica (Southwest, East-Africa, belgian Congo, Kameroon, french Congo, Angola, Mozambique Guinea-Bissao, maybe pasrt of french centra Africa, maybe Nigeria, perhaps via Dahomey to Togo) united in kinda condominium with german, french, belgian, portuguiese, british (?) representative - though some edge for the germans so that only if all other delegates are united the germans can be overvoted and or the acting civil servants/administrators mostly german or ...
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nomommsen
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Post by nomommsen on Aug 20, 2024 21:40:35 GMT
a) ... Those were German plans long before the discussions Wilson tried to organise. ...
... what plans? Hope you don't refer to these notorius 'September-program'.
Actually the german goverment never issued some official statement regarding war aims aside theyx don't wish any discussion reagding war aims. There were a plethora of 'wishes' and 'wants' aired by ever growing, popping up and siffering 'publicists' or groups or single person or ... but never some official program Even said September-program was a collection of such 'aims' from a number of 'wishers' and source as kinda consideration-help for the chancellor of what was floating around on ideas.
... but that's it.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Aug 20, 2024 22:15:10 GMT
a) ... Those were German plans long before the discussions Wilson tried to organise. ...
... what plans? Hope you don't refer to these notorius 'September-program'.
Actually the german goverment never issued some official statement regarding war aims aside theyx don't wish any discussion reagding war aims. There were a plethora of 'wishes' and 'wants' aired by ever growing, popping up and siffering 'publicists' or groups or single person or ... but never some official program Even said September-program was a collection of such 'aims' from a number of 'wishers' and source as kinda consideration-help for the chancellor of what was floating around on ideas.
... but that's it.
Among other sources yes. The German government may never have actually formally stated their aims for territorial conquests but they definitely had them and the fact they didn't deny many of the suggestions put forward at their requests tells us a lot. Similarly from the harsh terms they imposed on the countries and regions they did control. Admittedly they might have accepted some more generous terms earlier if Lenin and his cronies hadn't been such idiots but the terms imposed on former Russian territories were far harsher than what was finally stated for a defeated Germany and of course those were only partially enforced.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Aug 20, 2024 22:20:07 GMT
... The above would likely be the basis of the peace, with the Germans able to demand some extra concessions given the strategic situation increasingly leaning in their favor. Perhaps a demilitarized Belgium at the least, perhaps with German annexations up to the Meuse too? Congo being handed over seems a given, as does France now also losing Dahomey to Togoland and French Congo being joined with German Kamerun to get a continuous Mittel-Afrika empire. Perhaps the Germans are also able to extract Moldova and add it to Romania to mollify them somewhat, in addition to Kars to the Ottomans. Congo ... is offten 'offered# as the bargain token for the british to keep the germans away from teh channel coast as some belgian posessions would seem them worth the price for a british achievement in this situation.
To made the tout easier to swallow ... the germans could 'offer' some idea the german Secretary for the colonie had: some kind of a 'revival' of the Congo-Freetrade-Agreement zone. All thge different colonies of Mitterlafrica (Southwest, East-Africa, belgian Congo, Kameroon, french Congo, Angola, Mozambique Guinea-Bissao, maybe pasrt of french centra Africa, maybe Nigeria, perhaps via Dahomey to Togo) united in kinda condominium with german, french, belgian, portuguiese, british (?) representative - though some edge for the germans so that only if all other delegates are united the germans can be overvoted and or the acting civil servants/administrators mostly german or ...
They might make such proposals, although given the hubris among the German leadership until the end of the war and their lack of honesty in the past would anyone expect them to hold to then. Britain would definitely seek to free at least a chunk of Belgium from German occupation, for itself and France's security as well as to ease the plight of the Belgians but whether they would keep them for any length of time is unclear.
Also I do notice that this German dominated Mitterlafrica included not only an annexed Belgium Congo and territory from British and French colonies, some at considerable distance from the core German/Belgium lands but also seizing Portuguese colonies as well.
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ewellholmes
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Post by ewellholmes on Aug 22, 2024 20:20:54 GMT
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ewellholmes
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Post by ewellholmes on Aug 22, 2024 20:26:13 GMT
a) Would this have also included the planned annexations and puppytization of Belgium and its colony? Or further restrictions on France to make it even more defenceless against a further German attack? I doubt that would go down well in Paris regardless of what Wilson thought. Also once the suggested trade embargo on European goods is made the Germans are going to sense blood and likely to demand even more. Those were German plans long before the discussions Wilson tried to organise. I think what happens to Belgium depends a lot on the UK and how well it is able to maintain an organized front with the rest of its Allies, and how they in turn act. What France wants in this situation is constrained by its inability to actually enforce its desires and the prospect of its allies selling them out in order to increase their own position; if the UK and Russia can get a good deal at the expense, can Paris really risk it? Of course, if the Entente dithers, than the German capacity to enforce worse terms increases. Because their ability to resist is also becoming less and less. Case in point of this in practice was how the original Brest-Litovsk terms were basically what the Germans already controlled in January of 1918 and then increased to the vast sums of Russian territory as we know it when they refused to sign the original treaty. One of the main things keeping the PG in the war in 1917 was American financing which doesn't exist here. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Aug 22, 2024 21:07:47 GMT
a) Would this have also included the planned annexations and puppytization of Belgium and its colony? Or further restrictions on France to make it even more defenceless against a further German attack? I doubt that would go down well in Paris regardless of what Wilson thought. Also once the suggested trade embargo on European goods is made the Germans are going to sense blood and likely to demand even more. Those were German plans long before the discussions Wilson tried to organise. I think what happens to Belgium depends a lot on the UK and how well it is able to maintain an organized front with the rest of its Allies, and how they in turn act. What France wants in this situation is constrained by its inability to actually enforce its desires and the prospect of its allies selling them out in order to increase their own position; if the UK and Russia can get a good deal at the expense, can Paris really risk it? Of course, if the Entente dithers, than the German capacity to enforce worse terms increases. Because their ability to resist is also becoming less and less. Case in point of this in practice was how the original Brest-Litovsk terms were basically what the Germans already controlled in January of 1918 and then increased to the vast sums of Russian territory as we know it when they refused to sign the original treaty. One of the main things keeping the PG in the war in 1917 was American financing which doesn't exist here.
Not really as its Germany occupying the vast majority of Belgium and as your arguing that no one has any power to drive it from an inch of Belgium territory. Your further arguing that the German capacity to enforce "worse terms" is basically unconstrained.
There is the issue of the allies falling apart diplomatically but there are also strong reasons for them to stick together as they need everything they can to maintain any level of independence from German domination.
France and Russia may lack the power to attack and defeat Germany but they still have considerable capacity for self defence. Germany has its own considerable problems as it eats itself from the inside in the ruling elites desire for military victory and it will almost certainly lack any capacity to actually force the collapse of the western allies by military means as it failed to do OTL. The east is a more difficult issue but as I said if with the US displaying itself as unfriendly the PG decides it must sit on the defensive then with some half decent organisation it can present the issue as a question of the defence of mother Russia. Remember that in 1917/18 it was less a case of the Germans military defeating the Russians than the Russian army falling apart before them in most causes, because offensives were deeply unpopular and Lenin's propaganda but here that would be harder. Yes Germany can win victories on the ground but not without costs and the further they advance the more difificult it would be as their supply lines lengthen and their own casualties increase. Also while their position is pretty grim its a lot better than that of their allies, Austria, Bulgaria and Turkey.
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ewellholmes
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Post by ewellholmes on Aug 22, 2024 22:29:38 GMT
Not really as its Germany occupying the vast majority of Belgium and as your arguing that no one has any power to drive it from an inch of Belgium territory. Your further arguing that the German capacity to enforce "worse terms" is basically unconstrained.
Well, it's a question of horse trading. Berlin might think getting a demilitarized Belgium and a Mittel-Afrika is more important than Channel Ports. I agree, but that also cuts both ways; the UK and Russia aren't going to impale themselves for France to retain Briey-Longwy, when the Germans have had it occupied continuously since August of 1914 for example. The existence of the French and Russian states are at stake even if they go on the defensive:By many lights, in fact, it was already doing so. By the middle of the war, the French had become heavily dependent on American food, and they ultimately received more aid than any ally. 15 The British were not far behind, and by 1918 they depended on U.S. and Canadian imports for almost two-thirds of their total food. 16 British dependence on imported food was not new, and even before the war imports had accounted for more than half of their food supply. 17 But the situation was quite different in France, which had been almost self-sufficient in the years before the war broke out, with French farmers producing upwards of 90 percent of the food eaten within their borders. 18 French agricultural production declined precipitously during the war, due both to fighting on French soil and to the fact that millions of French farmers and workers had been sent to the trenches. Importing and doling out adequate food quickly became a priority of the French government. 19 Plummeting French wheat production was an especially keen source of worry because French people in this era relied inordinately on bread, with contemporaries estimating that bread made up a staggering 70 percent of average French diets. 20 The government subsidized bread heavily during the war and set a price above which the cost of bread could not legally rise, because officials believed that a sharp rise in the price of the national staple would corrode morale and physically weaken those least able to afford it. 21 Yet there were problems with this strategy, and some argued that the low price ceiling for farmers' grain discouraged production. 22 Because of a combination of factors, by 1917 French farmers were producing less than half of the wheat demanded by French consumers. 23 French cultivation Pre-War was 60 million acres, and this had collapsed by half during the war: a net loss of 30 million acres. The British, with 18 million acres under cultivation, could only supply 40% of their needs, thus necessitating the importation of 27 million acres equivalent or 60% of their needs. Combined, that is 57 million acres. At the time, Admiral Sims cabled Navy Secretary Josephus Daniels on April 14, 1917, "Mr Hoover informs me that there is only sufficient grain supply in this country for three weeks. This does not include the supply in retail stores." Basically, if nothing else, the Entente was going to be starved out very quickly if no American intervention occurred. |
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